Business Monitor International


Thailand Defence & Security Report

Published 02 October 2014

  • 82 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Thailand Defence & Security Report

BMI View:   Thailand's military government remains in place under the premiership of General Prayuth Chan-ocha following the military coup of May 2014. As intended, this action has restored order and stability, although it is not a long-term solution. Even if the planned return to democracy by October 2015 goes ahead, the Thai military will enjoy excessive influence in the country. Its budget is bloated and inefficient yet the army will continue to exert sufficient power to prevent any meaningful reform.

The ouster of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra on constitutional grounds in May 2014 triggered a rapid escalation in civil tensions across Thailand, pitting her 'red shirt' supporters against the, largely urban, pro-establishment, 'yellow shirts'. With the caretaker government unable to calm tensions, the military stepped in and dismissed the interim administration. Temporarily imposing martial law and a curfew, as well as suspending much of the constitution, the head of the Royal Thai Army, General Prayuth insisted that the move was designed solely to restore order.

While there have not been any major new defence deals during 2014, there have been a number of small but significant developments. Thailand's Navy is currently in talks with US defence contractor Havelsan over upgrades for its FFGs, or Oliver Hazard Perry guided missile frigates. These upgrades will see Thailand's fleet of FFGs better suited for modern combat with new sensors and weapons all of which will be integrated into a central command system. However, the military's intervention in domestic politics has jeopardised international deals and co-operation, particularly those involving the United States.

In Q214, Thailand completed the acquisition of the last of its 12 Gripen fighter jets from Swedish manufacturer Saab. This offers a more affordable fighter jet option, which remains an important consideration, in spite of the generous defence budget, owing to inefficient expenditure processes.

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Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Key Forecasts
7
Key Developments
7
SWOT
9
Thailand Security SWOT
9
Thailand Defence & Security SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
15
Business Environment
17
Industry Forecast
19
Defence Expenditure
19
Table: Thailand's Government Defence Expenditure, 2012-2018
20
Table: Thailand's Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2014-2018 (USDmn)
22
Table: Thailand's Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
23
Defence Trade
24
Table: Thailand's Defence Trade Balance, 2012-2018 (USDmn)
26
Imports
26
Table: Thailand's Defence Imports, 2012-2018 (USDmn)
27
Exports
28
Table: Thailand's Defence Exports, 2012-2018 (USDmn)
28
Macroeconomic Forecasts
29
Table: Thailand - Economic Activity
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Asia Security Risk Ratings
33
Table: Asia Pacific Security Risk Ratings
33
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
34
Thailand Security Risk Ratings
35
Market Overview
36
Thailand Defence Market Overview
36
Recent Developments
36
Armed Forces
36
Domestic Industries
38
Imports
39
Exports
43
Thailand Security Overview
44
Domestic Threats
44
Table: Thai Muslim Insurgents
47
Regional threats
50
International Threats
52
Company Profile
54
Loxley
54
Minebea
56
Regional Overview
57
Political Risk Analysis
57
Global Industry Overview
70
Global Political Outlook
70
Methodology
76
Industry Forecast Methodology
76
Sector-Specific Methodology
77
Sources
78
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
78
Table: Indicators And Weighting
79

The Thailand Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Thailand Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Thai defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Thai defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc