Business Monitor International


Thailand Defence & Security Report

Published 14 April 2014

  • 82 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Thailand Defence & Security Report

BMI View: As with preceding quarters, large-scale protests and internal political turmoil continue to be the greatest immediate threats to Thailand's security. Over the course of Q114, the political crisis has turned increasingly violent. In February a grenade blast in the capital Bangkok killed two, injuring a further twenty-two. At the same time gunmen opened fire on an anti-government rally in eastern Thailand, killing a five-year old girl Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra described the attacks as 'terrorist acts for political gain'. Worryingly, with violence moving outside Bangkok, the continuing political impasse in Thailand threatens long-term instability in the country.

Despite general elections being held in Q114 the political impasse in Thailand persists. Thailands's constitutional court ruled the 2 February general election as 'unconstitutional ' because it did not take place on the same day across the country. The lack of a unified election date was the result of protestors blocking the polls. It is not clear when a new election will be scheduled. Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban declared that protestors would block polling stations in any future elections, threatening to further escalate the crisis.

This is no doubt a blow to current Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who comfortably won the recent invalid election. The Prime Minister is also faces corruption charges relating to negligence over a government rice subsidy scheme. With all this instability and turmoil the military's support- or not- for Prime Minsiter Shinawatra in many ways will dictate Thailand's political future. Interestingly, when asked about the possibility of a military coup, Chief of the Army General Prayuth Chanocha failed to rule it out. If the military gets drawn in, in a repeat of the 2006 military coup, there will certainly be greater scope for escalation.

While there have not been any major new defence deals during Q114, there have been a number of small but significant...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Key Forecasts
8
Key Developments
9
SWOT
10
Thailand Security SWOT
10
Thailand Defence & Security SWOT
13
Political
16
Economic
18
Business Environment
20
Industry Forecast
22
Defence Expenditure
22
Table: Thailand's Government Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017
22
Table: Thailand's Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
24
Table: Thailand's Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
25
Defence Trade
25
Table: Thailand's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
27
Imports
28
Table: Thailand's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
29
Exports
29
Table: Thailand's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Economic Analysis
30
Table: Thailand - Economic Activity
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Asia Security Risk Ratings
35
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
35
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
36
Thailand Security Risk Ratings
36
Market Overview
38
Thailand Defence Market Overview
38
Recent Developments
38
Armed Forces
38
Domestic Industries
40
Imports
41
Exports
45
Thailand Security Overview
46
Domestic Threats
46
Table: Thai Muslim Insurgents
49
Regional threats
52
International Threats
54
Company Profile
56
Loxley
56
Minebea
58
Thai-Italian Interarms Company
59
Regional Overview
60
Political Risk Analysis
60
Global Industry Overview
73
Global Political Outlook
73
Methodology
78
Industry Forecast Methodology
78
Sector-Specific Methodology
79
Sources
80
Risk
Risk
Sector-Specific Methodology
80
Table: Security Risk
Table: Security Risk
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
82

The Thailand Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Thailand Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Thai defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Thai defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Ratings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc