Business Monitor International


Thailand Autos Report

Published 10 December 2014

  • 61 pages
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$1,295.00
Thailand Autos Report

We have downgraded Thailand's domestic auto sales growth forecast, and expect auto sales to contract 35.0%, a more severe contraction compared to the 30.2% decline forecasted previously. Weak sales for the first nine months of 2014 have been broad based, impacting both passenger cars and commercial vehicle segments. The slowdown is largely attributed to a sluggish economy, weighed down by an uncertain political climate. According to Toyota Motor Thailand, sales for passenger cars and commercial vehicles declined by 45.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 30.1% y-o-y respectively. For the overall auto sector, sales contracted by 37.3% to 648,410 units over the same period.

The outlook for the sector remains weak for the remaining months of 2014, and we forecast passenger car sales to contract by 42.0% in 2014. Sluggish demand will largely be attributed to demand coming off a high base, a weak economy and higher interest rates on auto loans. However, we are positive on the sector's growth in 2015, and forecast sales to grow moderately by 3.9%. A recovery in auto sales will be backed by Thailand's strengthening economy, and demand coming off a low base after a year of severe contraction. Phase two of the country's eco-car scheme will also provide a boost, given that applications by various automakers for the scheme have been approved by Thailand's Board Of Investments. However, we expect production for the segment to be mainly export focused, given that domestic interest in eco-cars appears to be waning.

On the commercial vehicle (CV) front, we forecast CV sales to contract by 28.7% in 2014, and expect CV sales to remain sluggish, although a pickup in construction activity should result in a moderation of the slowdown seen in the segment. As with the passenger car segment, we see the CV market recovering in 2015, and forecast CV sales to grow by 3.1% in 2015.

Despite the slowing domestic auto market resulting sharp decline in production (contraction of 27.0% y-o-y),...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
16
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2012-2018)
16
Sales
16
Production
17
Table: Conditions To Be Eligible For Phase Two Of The Eco-Car Scheme
23
Trade
24
Passenger Cars
25
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2012-2018)
25
Passenger Cars
25
Table: H114 Sales By Manufacturer
25
Commercial Vehicles
29
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2012-2018)
29
Pickups
30
Table: Pick-Up Sales In Thailand By Manufacturer
30
Suppliers
32
Motorbikes
35
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2012-2018)
35
Table: Motorbike Production And Sales 2014
35
Macroeconomic Forecasts
38
Table: Macroeconomic Forecasts (Thailand 2010-2016)
42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
43
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
46
Company Profile
47
Company Monitor
47
Honda Motor
50
Ford Motor
51
Regional Overview
52
Table: Vehicle Sales June 2014 (CBUS)
52
Global Industry Overview
58
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
58
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
58
Trucks Give North America A Lift
59
India Brings Relief To BRICs
61
Demographic Forecast
63
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
64
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
65
Table: Thailand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
66
Table: Thailand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
66
Methodology
67
Industry Forecasts
67
Sector-Specific Methodology
68
Sources
68
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
69
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
70

The Thailand Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Thailand Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Thailand.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Thai automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc