We have downgraded Thailand's domestic auto sales growth forecast, and expect auto sales to contract 35.0%, a more severe contraction compared to the 30.2% decline forecasted previously. Weak sales for the first nine months of 2014 have been broad based, impacting both passenger cars and commercial vehicle segments. The slowdown is largely attributed to a sluggish economy, weighed down by an uncertain political climate. According to Toyota Motor Thailand, sales for passenger cars and commercial vehicles declined by 45.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 30.1% y-o-y respectively. For the overall auto sector, sales contracted by 37.3% to 648,410 units over the same period.
The outlook for the sector remains weak for the remaining months of 2014, and we forecast passenger car sales to contract by 42.0% in 2014. Sluggish demand will largely be attributed to demand coming off a high base, a weak economy and higher interest rates on auto loans. However, we are positive on the sector's growth in 2015, and forecast sales to grow moderately by 3.9%. A recovery in auto sales will be backed by Thailand's strengthening economy, and demand coming off a low base after a year of severe contraction. Phase two of the country's eco-car scheme will also provide a boost, given that applications by various automakers for the scheme have been approved by Thailand's Board Of Investments. However, we expect production for the segment to be mainly export focused, given that domestic interest in eco-cars appears to be waning.
On the commercial vehicle (CV) front, we forecast CV sales to contract by 28.7% in 2014, and expect CV sales to remain sluggish, although a pickup in construction activity should result in a moderation of the slowdown seen in the segment. As with the passenger car segment, we see the CV market recovering in 2015, and forecast CV sales to grow by 3.1% in 2015.
Despite the slowing domestic auto market resulting sharp decline in production (contraction of 27.0% y-o-y),...
The Thailand Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Thailand Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Thailand.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.