Business Monitor International


Thailand Autos Report

Published 10 December 2014

  • 80 pages
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$1,295.00
Thailand Autos Report

We have downgraded Thailand's domestic auto sales growth forecast, and expect auto sales to contract 35.0%, a more severe contraction compared to the 30.2% decline forecasted previously. Weak sales for the first nine months of 2014 have been broad based, impacting both passenger cars and commercial vehicle segments. The slowdown is largely attributed to a sluggish economy, weighed down by an uncertain political climate. According to Toyota Motor Thailand, sales for passenger cars and commercial vehicles declined by 45.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 30.1% y-o-y respectively. For the overall auto sector, sales contracted by 37.3% to 648,410 units over the same period.

The outlook for the sector remains weak for the remaining months of 2014, and we forecast passenger car sales to contract by 42.0% in 2014. Sluggish demand will largely be attributed to demand coming off a high base, a weak economy and higher interest rates on auto loans. However, we are positive on the sector's growth in 2015, and forecast sales to grow moderately by 3.9%. A recovery in auto sales will be backed by Thailand's strengthening economy, and demand coming off a low base after a year of severe contraction. Phase two of the country's eco-car scheme will also provide a boost, given that applications by various automakers for the scheme have been approved by Thailand's Board Of Investments. However, we expect production for the segment to be mainly export focused, given that domestic interest in eco-cars appears to be waning.

On the commercial vehicle (CV) front, we forecast CV sales to contract by 28.7% in 2014, and expect CV sales to remain sluggish, although a pickup in construction activity should result in a moderation of the slowdown seen in the segment. As with the passenger car segment, we see the CV market recovering in 2015, and forecast CV sales to grow by 3.1% in 2015.

Despite the slowing domestic auto market resulting sharp decline in production (contraction of 27.0% y-o-y),...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2012-2018)
17
Sales
17
Production
19
Table: Conditions To Be Eligible For Phase Two Of The Eco-Car Scheme
27
Trade
29
Passenger Cars
30
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2012-2018)
30
Passenger Cars
30
Table: Domestic Passenger Car Sales - 2013
30
Table: COMPARISON OF GREEN CAR INCENTIVES
35
Commercial Vehicles
35
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2012-2018)
35
Pickups
36
Table: Top Selling Manufacturers Of Pickups
37
Suppliers
39
Motorbikes
42
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2012-2018)
42
Macroeconomic Forecast
45
Economic Analysis
45
Table: Thailand - Economic Activity
48
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
49
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
52
Company Profile
53
Company Monitor
53
Honda Motor
57
Ford Motor
58
Regional Overview
59
Asia Regional Overview
59
Table: Vehicle Sales March 2014 (Cbus)
59
Global Industry Overview
64
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
64
European Growth Gathers Momentum
64
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
66
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
67
Demographic Forecast
70
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
71
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
72
Table: Thailand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
73
Table: Thailand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
73
Methodology
74
Industry Forecasts
74
Sector-Specific Methodology
75
Sources
75
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
76
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
77

The Thailand Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Thailand Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Thailand.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Thai automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc