BMI View: Despite a mobile penetration rate below 60%, Tanzania's mobile market recorded slow growth in 2013, due to the discounting of inactive SIMs as well as the impact of increasing taxes on telecoms services . However, the market recovered in Q413 and we expect it to record strong growth in 2014 and throughout the rest of our forecast period to 2018. We expect growth to be driven by continued investment in mobile netwo rks, with operators concentrating investment on higher value mobile data services in urban areas and government programmes driving network expansion to underserved rural areas . Meanwhile, Tanzania has one of the brightest economic growth outlooks in Sub-Saharan Africa, which we expect to boost consumer and enterprise spending on telecoms services over the long term.
The mobile sector grew 0.8% in 2013, compared to growth of 6% in 2012, owing significant net subscription losses in Q213.
Mobile ARPU appreciated for seven out of eight quarters to Q313, with q-o-q growth of 11.6% and y-o-y growth of 17% in September 2013.
M-commerce users have continued to expand, and Tigo reported that 55% of its total subscriber base used Tigo Pesa by March 2014.
Growth in the fixed-line sector remains volatile, with a decline of 6.3% in 2013, compared to growth of 9.3% in 2012.
Tanzania ranked 17 th with a score of 39.4 on the BMI telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) table for Sub-Saharan Africa in Q314, both unchanged from last quarter. Tanzania's rating is boosted by its comparatively high Industry Risks score, although this could be negatively affected if the government succeeds in reclaiming full ownership of incumbent telecoms operator Tanzania Telecommunications Company Limited (TTCL). Tanzania's weakest rating is in the industry rewards category, reflecting a sharp slowdown in mobile subscriptions growth and sub-USD5 ARPUs.
Key Trends And Developments
Since the beginning of 2014, mobile operators have...
The Tanzania Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Tanzania's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Tanzania Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Tanzania.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Tanzania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Tanzanian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Tanzania's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Tanzania.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.