Business Monitor International


Tanzania Mining Report

Published 07 July 2014

  • 67 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Tanzania Mining Report

BMI View:   Tanzania's   mining industry will come under pressure over our forecast period to 2018 . This will largely be a result of weakness in global gold prices disincentivizing production growth. Although gold is the current mainstay of the sector , there are plans to diversify into nickel , coal and uranium production in the long term . The mining industry is relatively small in terms of value, but its importance is highlighted by the fact that mining earns a significant share of the country's export revenues. Majo r foreign investors in Tanzania's mining sector include African Barrick Gold and AngloGold Ashanti .

Tanzania is home to significant deposits of coal, cobalt, copper, diamonds, gold, nickel, silver and uranium. The country has long been a producer of gold (and is currently Africa's fourth-largest producer) and diamonds. In the long term we also expect coal, nickel and uranium production to become sub-sectors of Tanzania's mining sector. However, over our forecast period to 2018, weak commodity prices will precipitate stagnant gold production growth and are likely to delay potential new projects.

Lower Gold Prices To Hit Industry Value
Tanzania: Gold Production & Mining Industry Value

We expect Tanzania's mining sector to remain relatively uncompetitive as high taxes and royalties weigh on mining companies. The mining code, updated in 2010 at the height of the commodities price boom, is relatively more burdensome than the mining codes of the bulk of other African countries. As such, Tanzania is likely to find itself at a competitive disadvantage as mining companies look to slash capital expenditure in an era of weakening commodity prices.

Tanzania - Key Mining Projects
Company Mine Expected output Year
Tancoal Energy Mbalawala Coal: 1.5mntpa 2015
Shanta Chunya Gold: 1.3moz resources na
Continental Nickel Nachingwea Nickel: 607kt in reserves na
Uranex Manyoni

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Tanzania - Mining Projects
8
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Gold: Stagnation To Take Hold
10
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Tanzania 2010-2018)
13
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
14
Risk/Reward Ratings
14
Botswana On Top
15
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
16
South Africa: Still Ranking Highly
16
Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards
17
Risk/Reward Ratings
19
Rewards
19
Industry Rewards
19
Country Rewards
19
Risks
20
Industry Risks
20
Country Risks
20
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Tanzania 2010-2018)
21
Regulatory Development
22
Tax Regime
23
Corruption Concerns To Continue
24
Table: Political Overview
25
Table: Africa - Regulatory Outlook
25
Commodities Forecast
27
Commodity Strategy
27
Iron Ore: Not Much Respite In Sight
27
Steel: Production Rationalisation Too Slow To Provide Price Upside
29
Aluminium: Further Price Rally Unlikely
30
Lead: Ripe For A H214 Boost
31
Copper: Consensus Moving Our Way
32
Nickel: Price Surge To Abate Further
33
Tin: In A Sweet Spot
34
Zinc: Bullish Short-Term Picture
35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
37
Competitive Landscape
38
Table: Tanzania - Main Mining Companies' Performance
39
Company Profile
40
Barrick Gold
40
Company Strategy
41
Latest Financial Results
42
Financial Data
43
Table: Barrick - Key Financial Data
43
Address Details
44
Regional Overview
45
Mining - Africa Overview
45
Key Opportunities
45
1
45
2
47
3
48
Key Challenges
49
1
49
2
50
3
51
Table: Africa - Key Mining Regulatory Developments
52
Global Industry Overview
54
Challenges
54
Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals
58
Cause For Optimism
61
Methodology
68
Industry Forecast Methodology
68
Sources
69
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
70
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
72

The Tanzania Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Tanzania Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Tanzania.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Tanzania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Tanzania's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Tanzania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc