Business Monitor International


Tanzania Business Forecast Report

Published 24 September 2014

  • 47 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Tanzania Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • We forecast real GDP growth of 7.0% in Tanzania in 2014, accelerating to 7.3% in 2015. Our 2014 forecast is a slight upwards revision from the 6.9% forecast we held last quarter, based largely on the fact that exports performed more strongly than we expected in the quarter ended June 30. The consumer will be the key driver of economic growth in the country, with purchasing power supported by contained inflation.

  • Tanzania's current account deficit will continue to widen given the expected poor performance of key export gold, and the growth of imports as the economy expands. Investment inflows will be sufficient to maintain reserves and keep the balance of payments positive, though this surplus will narrow.

  • We do not believe that the constitutional review process in Tanzania will be completed, as is planned, before the October 2015 presidential and parliamentary elections. The political will needed to bring this about appears to be lacking at present, with the constituent assembly (CA) still boycotted by the Union of People's Constitution (UKAWA). The delays to the process have resulted in policy uncertainty that is likely to delay some investment into the country's nascent offshore gas sector.

Major Forecast Changes

  • Real GDP growth in 2014 has been revised up from 6.9% to 7.0%.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • The major risk to our economic outlook comes from the weather. Poor rains would not only exacerbate tight food supplies (food price inflation was the major driver of rapidly rising headline inflation in 2011) but would also once again hamper hydroelectricity production, raising costs for businesses and, by extension, consumers.

  • The country's infrastructure deficit is another concern; a failure to make significant progress would likely hold the economy back from reaching its significant potential.

  • The uncertainty regarding the constitutional review process is jeopardising investment flows.

  • A meaningful deterioration in Tanzania's...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
Corruption To Be Key Election Issue
8
Table: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Corruption And Reliance On Foreign Money High On The Agenda
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
13
Economic Activity
14
Gas Investment And Consumers To Power Growth
14
tab le: Ec onomic Acti vit y
14
Fiscal Policy
16
Small Fiscal Deficit Belies Risks
16
table: Fiscal Policy
16
Monetary Policy
18
Inflationary Pressures To Moderate
18
tab le: Moneta ry Polic y
18
Balance Of Payments
19
Declining Gold Prices To Widen C/A Deficit
19
TABLE: Current Account
20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Tanzanian Economy To 2023
23
Robust Growth Forecast On Gas Investment
23
TABLE : Long-Term Mac roeconomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Business Environment
27
SWOT Analysis
27
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
27
Business Environment Outlook
28
Institutions
28
TABLE : BMI BUSINE SS AND OPER ATION RISK RATINGS
28
Tab le: BMI LE GAL FRAMEWOR K RATING
29
Table: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
30
Infrastructure
31
Market Orientation
32
TABLE: ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
32
Tab le: TRADE AND INVE STMEN T RATINGS
33
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, 2004-2011
34
Operational Risk
35
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
37
Power
37
TABLE: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
38
TABLE: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2018-2023
39
Other Key Sectors
45
Tab le: Aut os Sect or Key Indicat ors
45
Tab le: Food and Drink Sect or Key Indicat ors
45
Tab le: Pharma Sect or Key Indicat ors
45
Tab le: Telecoms Sect or Key Indicat ors
46
Tab le: Oi l and Gas Sect or Key Indicat ors
46
Tab le: Infrast ructu re Sect or Key Indicat ors
46
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
47
Global Outlook
47
Emerging Market Deceleration
47
Tab le: Globa l Assumpti ons
47
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
48
Tab le: BMI VER SUS BLOO MBER G CON SEN SUS RE AL GDP GRO WTH FORE CASTS, %
48
Tab le: Em ergi ng Markets , Real GDP Growt h, %
49

The Tanzania Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Tanzania and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Tanzania's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of The Tanzania's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise The Tanzania's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Tanzania, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Tanzania Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Tanzanian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Tanzania through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Tanzania Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Tanzania and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Tanzania, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The Tanzania over the next 5-years?

BMI's The Tanzania country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Tanzanian Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Tanzania.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The Tanzania's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark The Tanzania's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for The Tanzania, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of The Tanzania's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express