We are revising our forecast for 2014 up to 80% due to new data availability. However, despite the latest data from Renault indicating that sales of brand new Renault's increased 83% in the first nine months of 2014 , BMI continues to predict steady growth (in the order of 3% a year) in new vehicle sales from 2015 onwards in Tanzania up to 2018. This owing to the markets erratic growth and low numbers of total sales. Even with this growth, we believe that only 8,063 new vehicles will be sold in the country that year.
When compared with a population of some 49.3mn, it is clear that new cars will remain unaffordable to the vast majority of Tanzanians for many years and that used cars will continue to be the more significant market. In light of this, potential gains for investors are weighted towards the commercial vehicles markets, owing to the growth of Tanzania's mining and infrastructure sectors.
Although the outlook for passenger car sales remains downbeat, we believe there is scope for higher growth in commercial vehicle sales over the coming five years. Our Infrastructure team remain bullish on Tanzania's infrastructure industry. The government is investing heavily in improving its road and transport infrastructure, which should boost demand for heavy commercial vehicles (HCVs) in particular. Indeed, our Infrastructure team points out that transport and utilities infrastructure investments make up a significant proportion of the USD22.1bn of planned, financed or under construction projects in BMI's Key Project's database and we expect investment into these sectors to be the key driver of construction growth over the coming years.
As a sign of the scale of Tanzania's infrastructure projects China Merchants Holdings (International) Co Ltd signed a framework agreement with the Tanzanian authorities to develop a new port in the town of Bagamoyo. The development, worth an estimated USD10bn, will see a new port, export processing zone and interlinking rail...
The Tanzania Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Tanzania Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Tanzania.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Tanzania to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Tanzanian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Tanzanian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Tanzania.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.