We are revising our forecast for 2014 up to 80% due to new data availability. However, despite the latest data from Renault indicating that sales of brand new Renault's increased 83% in the first nine months of 2014 , BMI continues to predict steady growth (in the order of 3% a year) in new vehicle sales from 2015 onwards in Tanzania up to 2018. This owing to the markets erratic growth and low numbers of total sales. Even with this growth, we believe that only 8,063 new vehicles will be sold in the country that year.
When compared with a population of some 49.3mn, it is clear that new cars will remain unaffordable to the vast majority of Tanzanians for many years and that used cars will continue to be the more significant market. In light of this, potential gains for investors are weighted towards the commercial vehicles markets, owing to the growth of Tanzania's mining and infrastructure sectors.
Although the outlook for passenger car sales remains downbeat, we believe there is scope for higher growth in commercial vehicle sales over the coming five years. Our Infrastructure team remain bullish on Tanzania's infrastructure industry. The government is investing heavily in improving its road and transport infrastructure, which should boost demand for heavy commercial vehicles (HCVs) in particular. Indeed, our Infrastructure team points out that transport and utilities infrastructure investments make up a significant proportion of the USD22.1bn of planned, financed or under construction projects in BMI's Key Project's database and we expect investment into these sectors to be the key driver of construction growth over the coming years.
As a sign of the scale of Tanzania's infrastructure projects China Merchants Holdings (International) Co Ltd signed a framework agreement with the Tanzanian authorities to develop a new port in the town of Bagamoyo. The development, worth an estimated USD10bn, will see a new port, export processing zone and interlinking rail...
The Tanzania Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Tanzania Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Tanzania.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Tanzania to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Tanzanian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Tanzanian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Tanzania.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.