Business Monitor International


Tanzania Agribusiness Report

Published 02 April 2014

  • 96 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Tanzania Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We continue to favour the Tanzanian sugar and coffee industries over the medium term owing to their potential for growth on the back of strong investment in capacity. The grain industry in Tanzania will remain less competitive than in other countries in the region, particularly South Africa and Zambia, and we see little potential for the country to become a major grain exporter.

Dominated By Grains
Tanzania - BMI Market Value By Commodity (% of total)

Key Forecasts

  • Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 39.2 % to 424,500 tonnes. This will come from increased investment in the sector as well as booming demand for local consumption on the back of growing confectionary and soft drinks demand in the country.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2018: 31.2% to 5.7 mn tonnes. A combination of enhanced yields (contributing to lower prices) and rising living standards is expected to drive corn consumption growth.

  • Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 25.2 % to 1.3mn 60kg bags. The sector is benefiting from investment in disease-resistant trees, and from incentives for small producers.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 7.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), up from 6.5% in 2013; forecast to average 7.3% over 2013-2018.

  • Consumer price inflation: 7.5% average in 2014 (down from 7.9% average in 2013).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 16.7% y-o-y decrease to US$1.6bn in 2014, forecast to decrease by an annual average of 2.3% between 2012/13 and 2017/18.

Industry Developments

We have revised up our forecast for Tanzania's coffee production in 2013/14 to 1.2mn bags (from 900,000 tonnes previously). This will come as the country continued to invest in its coffee crop and as weather conditions were favourable. We continue to forecast output to grow in 2014/15 as the recent surge in coffee prices will help farmers' incomes and encourage plantings. Historically, coffee output has been quite volatile because of unstable farmers' incomes, credit conditions and government support....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Grains Outlook
13
Table: Tanzania Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: Tanzania Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
18
Rice Outlook
19
Table: Tanzania Rice Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
20
Table: Tanzania Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
22
Sugar Outlook
23
Table: Tanzania Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
24
Table: Tanzania Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
29
Coffee Outlook
30
Table: Tanzania Coffee Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
30
Table: Tanzania Coffee Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
34
Commodities Price Analysis
36
Monthly Grains Update
36
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
44
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
45
Monthly Softs Update
46
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
56
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
57
Upstream Analysis
58
Africa Machinery Outlook
58
Africa GM Outlook
65
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
70
Downstream Analysis
75
Mass Grocery Retail
75
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
76
Food
77
Table: Food Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
79
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
79
Table: Corn Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
82
Table: Liquid Milk Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
83
Table: Cheese Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
84
Drink
85
Table: Beer Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
85
Table: Carbonated Soft Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
86
Table: Coffee Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
87
Table: Tea Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
88
Regional Overview
89
Table: EU Farm Size Statistics In 2007
93
Demographic Forecast
95
Table: Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
96
Table: Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
97
Table: Tanzania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
98
Table: Tanzania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
98
Methodology
99
Industry Forecast Methodology
99
Sector-Specific Methodology
100

The Tanzania Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Tanzania Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Tanzania.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Tanzania Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc