Business Monitor International


Tanzania Agribusiness Report

Published 13 October 2014

  • 96 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Tanzania Agribusiness Report
Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2010-2018)

BMI View:   We continue to favour the Tanzanian sugar and coffee industries over the medium term owing to the potential for growth on the back of strong investment in capacity. The grain industry in Tanzania will remain less competitive than in other countries in the region, particularly South Africa and Zambia, and we see little potential for the country to become a major grain exporter.

Key Forecasts

  • Sugar production growth to 2017/18:  11.3 % to 345,000 tonnes. Increased investment in the sector as well as booming consumption on the back of growing confectionery and soft drinks demand will support growth.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2018:  6.5% to 5.3mn tonnes. A combination of lower average prices and rising living standards is expected to drive corn consumption growth.

  • Coffee production growth to 2017/18:  14.4 % to 1.4mn 60kg bags. The sector is benefiting from investment in disease-resistant trees, and from incentives for small producers. 

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 6.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), stable compared with the 2013 level; forecast to average 7.2% over 2013-2018.

  • Consumer price inflation: 7.3% average in 2014 (down from 7.9% average in 2013).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 19.9% y-o-y decrease to USD1.7bn in 2014, forecast to average growth of 4.9% per year between 2014/15 and 2017/18.

Industry Developments

We forecast corn production in Tanzania to come in at 4.5mn tonnes in 2014/15, a decline of 4.3% y-o-y. Lower yields owing to unfavourable weather and lower input use has damaged the country's grain crop over the last couple of years.

Similar to many other Sub-Saharan African nations, we do not expect Tanzania to significantly improve its grains output via improved yield growth. Furthermore, lower average corn prices relative to the last few years will discourage significant plantings growth.

In contrast to the general optimism surrounding the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Grains Outlook
13
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2013-2018)
13
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2008-2013)
17
Rice Outlook
19
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2012-2018)
20
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2008-2013)
22
Sugar Outlook
24
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2013-2018)
25
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2008-2013)
27
Coffee Outlook
29
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2013-2018)
30
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2008-2013)
32
Commodities Price Analysis
34
Monthly Softs Strategy
34
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
41
Monthly Grains Strategy
42
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
49
Upstream Analysis
50
Africa GM Outlook
50
Table: Farm Size By Region
54
Africa Machinery Outlook
56
Table: Number Of Tractors Per 1,000ha Of Arable Land
56
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
60
Table: South Africa - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In 2014 (%)
61
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
62
Downstream Analysis
69
Food
69
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2011-2018)
70
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2018)
70
Drink
71
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2018)
72
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Tanzania 2013-2018)
72
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2018)
73
Mass Grocery Retail
74
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2018)
74
Regional Overview
75
Demographic Forecast
82
Table: Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
83
Table: Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
84
Table: Tanzania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
85
Table: Tanzania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
85
Methodology
86
Industry Forecast Methodology
86
Sector-Specific Methodology
87

The Tanzania Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Tanzania Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Tanzania.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Tanzania Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc