Business Monitor International


Taiwan Oil & Gas Report

Published 15 May 2014

  • 90 pages
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$1,295.00
Taiwan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Taiwan is almost entirely dependent on imports to meet energy demand and is likely to stay in this state for the foreseeable future. A growing appetite for imported gas has created a need for fresh liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. This creates opportunities for potential LNG sellers, though US supplies are likely to be favoured for their lower prices.

The main trends and developments we highlight in the Taiwanese o il and g as sector are:

  • Exploration prospects remain relatively poor and no change is expected over the short-to-medium term. However, deepwater exploration is taking place off the south-western coast that could shore up its small resource base following a joint venture agreement between CPC and Husky Energy signed in December 2012.

  • Like Japan and China, Taiwan is also looking into its methane hydrates prospects, though large-scale commercial production is not likely to take place within our forecast period.

  • Taiwan is a marginal oil producer. With no significant oil discoveries to be developed and with limited exploration planned in the near future, we expect crude oil, NGL and other liquids production to remain stable at around 1,660-1,700 barrels per day (b/d) until the end of our forecast period in 2014, with limited upside risk to this forecast.

  • Despite a relatively healthy economy, we expect consumption growth to be slightly subdued with governmental plans to increase gas-fired power generation capacity, renewables and various policies aiming at increasing energy efficiency. Our forecast for crude oil consumption is for an increase from a planned 1.09mn b/d in 2013, to around 1.13mn b/d in 2018 and to 1.16mn b/d by 2023.

  • Taiwan is a marginal gas producer. Production has improved slightly to about 0.34bcm in 2013, but we expect growth to be stagnant in the medium term to reach about 0.35bcm in 2018 and for output to trend downwards in the longer term to return to about 0.31bcm by 2023.

  • The Ministry of Economics...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data (Taiwan 2012-2017)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data (Taiwan 2018-2023)
11
Oil Supply And Demand
12
Table: Oil Production and Net Exports (Taiwan 2012-2017)
12
Table: Oil Production and Net Exports (Taiwan 2018-2023)
13
Gas Supply And Demand
15
Table: Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Taiwan 2012-2017)
15
Table: Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Taiwan 2018-2023)
16
LNG
19
Refining And Oil Products Trade
21
Table: Refining - Production and Consumption (Taiwan 2012-2017)
21
Table: Refining - Production and Consumption (Taiwan 2018-2023)
21
Revenues/Import Costs
23
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
26
The Upstream Leaders
26
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
29
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Downstream Support
31
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Taiwan - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Taiwan Upstream Rating - Overview
37
Taiwan Upstream Rating - Rewards
37
Taiwan Upstream Rating - Risks
37
Taiwan Downstream Rating - Overview
37
Market Overview
38
Taiwan Energy Market Overview
38
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
40
Oil Refineries
40
Table: Refineries In Taiwan
40
Service Stations
41
Oil Storage
41
LNG Terminals
41
Gas Pipelines
42
Competitive Landscape
43
Competitive Landscape Summary
43
Table: Key Players - Taiwan Oil & Gas Sector
43
Table: Key Upstream Player
44
Table: Key Downstream Players
44
Company Profile
45
Chinese Petroleum Corporation (CPC)
45
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation
51
Other Summaries
54
Regional Overview
55
Asia Overview
55
The World's Largest Oil Guzzler
55
Tightening In The Downstream
59
Gas Market Potential Set To Outshine Oil
63
A Hot Market For LNG
67
The Centre Of The LNG Price Debate
70
Global Industry Overview
72
Global Energy Market Overview
72
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
74
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
75
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
76
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
78
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
78
Appendix
81
Asia - Regional Appendix
81
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
84
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
86
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
87
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
88
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
88
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
89
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
90
Taiwan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
92
Table: Taiwan Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
92
Table: Taiwan Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
93
Table: Taiwan Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
95
Table: Taiwan Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
96
Table: Taiwan Refined Petroleum Products, Net Export Breakdown, 2012-2017
98
Table: Taiwan Refined Petroleum Products, Net Export Breakdown, 2018-2023
99
Glossary
101
Table: Glossary Of Terms
101
Methodology
103
Industry Forecast Methodology
103
Source
105
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
105
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
107
Table: Weighting
108

The Taiwan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Taiwan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Taiwan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Taiwanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Taiwan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Taiwanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Taiwan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc