Despite Taiwan's better than expected Q2 2014 GDP growth figures on the back of strong export orders and increased domestic investment, we maintain our 2014 GDP forecast at 3.1%. We expect growth to pick up to 4.1% in 2015, but note that structural headwinds will continue to hold the economy back.
Taiwanese real GDP growth came in at 3.8% in Q2 2014, with growth being fuelled by both rising exports and domestic demand. Despite the recent surge, we maintain our forecast for Taiwan's GDP to grow 3.1% in 2014, as we believe that renewed weakness in Chinese economic activity in H2 2014 will weigh on Taiwanese growth. Meanwhile, domestically, waning credit growth may be signalling an impending slowdown in domestic demand.
Recent indicators show that the growth momentum has picked up in the last six months. Industrial production grew 8.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in June 2014, led by electronics and manufacturing, both of which are mainstays of the Taiwanese economy. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has also risen sharply ahead of the annual global tech cycle that tends to occur in Q3/4 due to seasonal factors. We believe that this rise is due to increases in cyclical demand from both the US and China, Taiwan's two major trade partners. Export orders, a leading indicator of future economic growth and external demand have also increased, rising to 10.6% y-o-y in June 2014 from 4.7% y-o-y in May 2014.
We have pencilled in a fairly mundane short-term growth forecast for all of Taiwan's freight sectors, except road freight, which is set to excel in 2014. Leading the way in terms of y-o-y growth will indeed be road freight (16.46%), while the poorest performing mode will be rail freight at 1.50% growth this year. Both of the country's main ports will also see negligible growth this year.
Headline Industry Data
The Taiwan Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Taiwan Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Taiwanese freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Taiwan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwanese freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Taiwan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.