Business Monitor International


Taiwan Freight Transport Report

Published 08 January 2015

  • 76 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Taiwan Freight Transport Report

Modest Freight Growth Expected In 2015

We expect low single-digit growth in percentage terms for all freight modes in Taiwan in 2015. Leading the way in terms of year-on-year (y-o-y) growth will be air freight (+2.5%), while the poorest performing mode will be bulk tonnage at the port of Keelung (+1.1%).

BMI's growth predictions for Taiwan are slightly below consensus in 2015. We have cut back our GDP projection to growth of 3.5% (down from 4.1% previously) reflecting the impact of weak global demand and falling domestic house prices. The latter will hold back the growth of domestic consumption. Recent food scandals - including the discovery that lard-based oil made from recycled kitchen and slaughterhouse waste was being incorporated into food products - will also have had a negative effect on consumer confidence and food exports. Exports, while remaining key to Taiwan's growth dynamics, will be influenced by the slowdown in the mainland Chinese economy, which accounts for approximately 40% of Taiwan's total overseas shipments. While taking these factors into account, BMI also notes the local economy's resilience and positive signs including strength in investment. Our medium-term outlook is for growth to average 3.9% per annum in the five years to 2019.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 2.5% to 1.173mn tonnes.

  • 2015 rail freight is forecast to rise by 1.9% to 11.546mn tonnes.

  • 2015 road freight is forecast to increase by 2.1% to 655.0mn tonnes.

  • 2015 port of Kaohsiung tonnage throughput forecast to grow by 1.5% to 118.231mn tonnes.

  • 2015 port of Keelung tonnage growth is estimated to come in at 1.1% to 70.584mn tonnes.

  • 2015 total trade is forecast to rise by 4.5% in real terms, picking up pace on the 2.8% growth estimated for 2014.

Key Industry Trends

Logistics Demand Picking Up In Asia Pacific: DHL Global Forwarding, part of Deutsche Post DHL, said in October 2014 that it was increasing freight capacity in...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Road-Reliant
19
Table: Road Freight (Taiwan 2011-2018)
20
Rail
20
Table: Rail Freight (Taiwan 2011-2018)
21
Air
21
Table: Air Freight (Taiwan 2011-2018)
21
Maritime
22
Table: Maritime Freight (Taiwan 2011-2018)
23
Trade
23
Table: Trade Overview (Taiwan 2011-2018)
23
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Taiwan 2011-2018)
24
Market Overview
26
Industry Trends And Developments
31
Air
31
Company Profile
34
China Airlines Cargo (CAC)
34
EVA Air Cargo
37
Evergreen Line
39
Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation
47
Wan Hai Lines
50
Cheng Lie Navigation Company (CNC Line)
53
Political Outlook
56
Foreign Policy
56
DPP Softening Stance Towards China
56
Engagement By Both Parties
57
Attention To Shift To Domestic Politics
58
Table: Taiwan: Political Overview
59
Long-Term Political Outlook
60
Oil Price Outlook
65
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
65
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
65
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
67
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
71
Risks To Outlook
72
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
73
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
73
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
78
Risks To Outlook
79
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
80
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
80
Supply Keeps Market Down
80
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
82
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
83
Risks To Outlook
86
Macroeconomic Forecasts
87
Economic Analysis
87
Recent Indicators Suggest Buoyant Growth
87
Waning Credit Growth Calls For Caution
88
Table: Economic Activity (Taiwan 2009-2018)
90
Demographic Forecast
91
Table: Taiwan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
92
Table: Taiwan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% Of Total)
93
Table: Taiwan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
94
Methodology
95
Industry Forecast Methodology
95
Sector-Specific Methodology
96
Sources
97

The Taiwan Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Taiwan Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Taiwanese freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Taiwan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwanese freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Taiwan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc