Business Monitor International


Taiwan Autos Report

Published 01 April 2014

  • 60 pages
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$1,295.00
Taiwan Autos Report

According to the Taiwan Transportation Vehicle Manufacturers Association (TTVMA), domestic auto sales in February 2014 were up 15.7% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 15,154 units. However, this figure was distorted due to the Chinese New Year holiday effect. A more meaningful comparison would be to compare y-o-y growth in combined sales of the first two months of the year.

In fact, domestic auto sales for 2M14 came in at 48,219 units and were down 7.9% y-o-y. Indeed, the poor start to the year is in line with our bearish outlook on the market.

However, both the passenger car segment and the commercial vehicle (CV) segment had slightly divergent fortunes. The CV segment saw its 2M14 domestic sales mostly unchanged on a y-o-y basis, at 9,242 units. We have upgraded our 2014 CV sales forecast to pencil in a contraction of 0.4% versus -3.1% previously.

On the other hand, domestic passenger car sales declined 9.7% y-o-y in the first two months of 2014, to 38,977 units. However, we are maintaining our full-year sales forecast of a 1.8% decline, to 210,000 units, as we believe that the low base effects of 2013 will support growth in the coming months.

This will then revise our total 2014 vehicle sales growth forecast to -1.5%, to 255,000 units, from -2.0% previously.

We believe the sector will continue to face headwinds for the rest of the year. Our Country Risk team forecasts private consumption growth in 2014 to remain weak at 1.9%, which will result in lacklustre domestic passenger car sales. We also expect CV demand to remain weak as local manufacturers struggle from softening export orders, not least due to the ongoing slowdown in the Chinese economy.

Despite the poor start for auto sales, domestic vehicle production for the first two months of 2014 rose 2.9% y-o-y, to 52,935 units. This was due to buoyant vehicle exports, which grew 37.8% in 2M14, to 14,816 units. We believe exports will continue to remain a bright spot and support domestic output in 2014 ( see 'Car Exports...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Auto Sales, 2011-2018
13
Table: Auto Production, 2011-2018
15
Macroeconomic Forecast
18
Table: Taiwan - Economic Activity
20
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Table: Asia Pacific Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Competitive Landscape
25
Table: Taiwan - Vehicle Production By Manufacturer
25
Table: Passenger Cars - Production And Sales, 2011-2018
27
Table: Commercial Vehicles - Production And Sales, 2011-2018
30
Table: Motorcycles - Production, Sales And Exports, 2011-2018
30
Company Profile
31
Company Monitor
31
Kuozui Motors (Toyota Motor)
34
China Motor Corporation (CMC)
36
Yulon Group
37
Regional Overview
39
Table: Vehicle Sales 2013 (CBUS)
39
Global Industry Overview
44
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
44
Europe On Road To Recovery
44
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
46
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
48
Demographic Forecast
51
Demographic Outlook
51
Table: Taiwan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
52
Table: Taiwan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% Of Total)
53
Table: Taiwan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
54
Methodology
55
Industry Forecasts
55
Sector-Specific Methodology
56
Sources
56
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
57
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
58

The Taiwan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Taiwan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Taiwan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Taiwan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Taiwanese automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Taiwan.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc