Business Monitor International


Syria Defence & Security Report

Published 07 January 2015

  • 78 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Syria Defence & Security Report

BMI View: Syria remains embroiled in a full-scale civil war. Without any viable political process and in view of the number of armed groups operating in Syria, BMI does not foresee any let up in the violence soo n . Our view is that while the anti-Islamic State coalition has made some strides, the long term effectiveness of this coalition to bring stability to Syria seems rather questionable.

Although the air-strikes carried out by the U.S. led anti-Islamic State coalition have hurt the group hard, we think that their long-term effectiveness is questionable without a longer term strategy on how to remove Assad and bring about a political transition. Without defining a clearer strategy to remove Assad, we think that the U.S. is leaving itself in a dangerous position

In view of Syria's failed economy, BMI estimates indicate that Syria's defence expenditure will finish the year 2014 with a 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease, which would leave the budget at an estimated USD2bn. Depending on the continuing survival of the regime, we do not anticipate any significant growth in defence spending in the years ahead nor do we anticipate the value of imports and exports to change for the remainder of the forecast period ending in 2019.

Syria's Security Risk Index score has dropped significantly in comparison to before the civil war commenced. For Q115, we have given it a score of a mere 21, which is down from 23 earlier in 2014, and 57 from January 2011. Currently, Syria stands at the bottom of our Security Risk Index for the Middle East. Its average from the end of 2007 is also dropping, and currently stands at 40. We are not envisaging any improvement to these scores over the course of 2015.

Recent Developments:

  • On November 6 2014, the Syrian army recaptured the al-Shaer gas field, 110 kilometres east of Homs, from the Islamic State, who had taken control of the field at the end of October.

  • In December 2014, the Assad regime sustained a major setback in northern...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Syria Security SWOT
9
Syria Defence SWOT
10
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Defence Expenditure
14
Table: Defence Expenditure (Syria 2011-2018)
15
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Syria 2011-2018)
16
Armed Forces
16
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Syria 2004-2011)
17
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Syria 2011-2018)
17
Defence Exports And Imports
18
Table: Defence Exports (Syria 2011-2018)
18
Table: Defence Imports (Syria 2011-2018)
18
Macroeconomic Forecasts
19
Economic Analysis
19
Table: Economic Activity (Syria 2009-2018)
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Middle East And Africa Security Risk Ratings
25
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Security Ratings
25
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
26
Syria Security Risk Ratings
27
Market Overview
28
Syria Defence Market Overview
28
Arms Trade Overview
28
Armed Forces And Government Spending
29
Defence Modernisation
36
International Deployment And Joint Exercises
37
Domestic Defence Industries
37
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
37
Syria Security Overview
40
Domestic Threats
40
Regional Threats
48
International Threats
49
Regional Overview
53
Middle East And North Africa Security Overview
53
Global Industry Overview
68
Political Risk Analysis
68
Methodology
73
Industry Forecast Methodology
73
Sector-Specific Methodology
74
Sources
75
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
75
Table: Indicators And Weighting
76

The Syria Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Syria Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Syrian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Syria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Syrian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world’s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world’s ‘wild card’ low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.

BMI industry Forecast scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • defence expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
  • armed forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, Manpower fit for military service, Army Personnel, Navy Personnel, Air Force Personnel, Total armed forces, (‘000) (% population).
  • arms trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); Bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); Revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); Military weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).

Political Risk assessment

Drawing on BMI’s heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk analysis

BMI’s proprietary Security Risk Indices provide investors with a reliable – and country-comparable – guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious – or prolonged – terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces spending/ expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Competitive landscape

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries. The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting the Americas, along with potential risks in the coming year.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Defence & Security Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc