Information regarding the size of Syria's annual defence budget is difficult to locate, since the country erupted into civil war in 2011. It is, however, possible to provide an accurate estimate of the size of the country's annual defence budget. For example, in 2014, we expect Syria's defence budget to reach USD3bn. For the remainder of the forecast period, up to and including 2018, we expect Syria to spend an average of USD4.9bn on defence. We predict Syria's defence spending to reach USD5.7bn by 2018.
Estimating the current size of Syria's armed forces is almost impossible given the civil war in which the country is in the grip of. This conflict has seen the country's armed forces pitted against a significant number of rebel organisations. Accurate figures regarding the current size of the armed forces are almost impossible to produce, given that the armed forces have suffered significant casualties during the hostilities, and also because the armed forces have witnessed large-scale defections to the rebels and desertion.
We have given Syria an overall security risk rating of 41 for Q414. Overall, the country has scored an average security risk rating of 27 for the period December 2007 up to Q414. We believe that Syria has a high likelihood of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. Similarly, we believe that it has a high risk of experiencing a major terrorist attack and is highly susceptible to criminal activity.
Reports came to light during Q314 that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, arguably the largest and most powerful rebel group opposing the regime of president Bashir al-Assed was increasing its use of suicide squads during its operations. In a demonstration of the levels of violence that ISIS is prepared to inflict, an American journalist James Foley was beheaded on video on 19 August 2014 by an ISIS fighter believed to be British.
In addition to its capture of Tabaqa air base, ISIS has also captured villages close to Aleppo, Syria's second...
The Syria Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Syria Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Syrian defence and security industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Syria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Syrian defence and security market.
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- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Domestic Security Overview
The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.