Business Monitor International

Syria Defence & Security Report

Published 03 October 2014

  • 83 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
Syria Defence & Security Report

Information regarding the size of Syria's annual defence budget is difficult to locate, since the country erupted into civil war in 2011. It is, however, possible to provide an accurate estimate of the size of the country's annual defence budget. For example, in 2014, we expect Syria's defence budget to reach USD3bn. For the remainder of the forecast period, up to and including 2018, we expect Syria to spend an average of USD4.9bn on defence. We predict Syria's defence spending to reach USD5.7bn by 2018.

Estimating the current size of Syria's armed forces is almost impossible given the civil war in which the country is in the grip of. This conflict has seen the country's armed forces pitted against a significant number of rebel organisations. Accurate figures regarding the current size of the armed forces are almost impossible to produce, given that the armed forces have suffered significant casualties during the hostilities, and also because the armed forces have witnessed large-scale defections to the rebels and desertion.

We have given Syria an overall security risk rating of 41 for Q414. Overall, the country has scored an average security risk rating of 27 for the period December 2007 up to Q414. We believe that Syria has a high likelihood of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. Similarly, we believe that it has a high risk of experiencing a major terrorist attack and is highly susceptible to criminal activity.

Reports came to light during Q314 that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, arguably the largest and most powerful rebel group opposing the regime of president Bashir al-Assed was increasing its use of suicide squads during its operations. In a demonstration of the levels of violence that ISIS is prepared to inflict, an American journalist James Foley was beheaded on video on 19 August 2014 by an ISIS fighter believed to be British.

In addition to its capture of Tabaqa air base, ISIS has also captured villages close to Aleppo, Syria's second...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Syria Security SWOT
Syria Defence SWOT
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Defence Expenditure
Table: Defence Expenditure (Syria 2011-2018)
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Syria 2011-2018)
Armed Forces
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Syria 2004-2011)
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Syria 2011-2018)
Defence Exports And Imports
Table: Defence Exports (Syria 2011-2018)
Table: Defence Imports (Syria 2011-2018)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Syria 2009-2018)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Middle East And Africa Security Risk Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Syria Security Risk Ratings
Market Overview
Syria Defence Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Defence Modernisation
International Deployment And Joint Exercises
Domestic Defence Industries
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Syria Security Overview
Domestic Threats
Regional Threats
International Threats
Regional Overview
Middle East And North Africa Security Overview
Global Industry Overview
Political Risk Analysis
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
Table: Indicators And Weighting

The Syria Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Syria Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Syrian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Syria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Syrian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).


Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc