Business Monitor International


Syria Defence & Security Report

Published 16 July 2014

  • 83 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Syria Defence & Security Report

BMI View:   Syria has remained in a state of civil war since 2011, pitting the government of President Bashar al-Assad against an armed rebel movement seeking his removal from power. The conflict is increasingly assuming a regional dimension, with the Sunni Muslim states of Qatar and Saudi Arabia supporting the removal of Assad, and the Shi'a Muslim state of Iran supporting the incumbent regime.

BMI expects Syria to spend up to USD1.7bn on defence in 2014. With no prospect of peace in sight as regards the country's civil war, we expect Syria to increase the amount it spends on defence annually over the next four years with the budget reaching USD2.8bn by 2018.

It will come as little surprise that we have given Syria a low overall security risk rating of 27 for Q314. The country has scored an average overall security risk rating of 41 for the period December 2007 to Q314. We consider Syria to be at a high risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. Similarly, we also believe that the country has a high risk of suffering from a major terrorist attack, with it having a similarly high risk of experiencing major criminal activity. All of these being factors are influenced by the civil war, which has been raging since 2011.

A deal brokered by Iran and the UN between the Assad regime and the anti-government rebels on 8 May 2014 saw the withdrawal of 900 rebel fighters from the city of Homs. From a strategic perspective, the final consolidation of Homs in government hands places more of the north-south road between Damascus and the coast into regime hands, greatly assisting its logistics.

In terms of gains on the ground, as of early 2014 it appears that the Assad regime is consolidating its position and shows no immediate signs of disintegrating. The regime is facing little in the way of determined threats to the areas it currently holds but lacks the personnel strength to extend its writ into rebel-held regions. Anti-Assad rebels, meanwhile, have...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Syria Defence SWOT
8
Syria Security SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Armed Forces
13
Table: Syria's Armed Forces
13
Table: Syria's Manpower Available For Military Service (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
14
Defence Expenditure
14
Table: Syria's Defence Expenditure
15
Table: Syria's Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP
16
Defence Trade
16
Macroeconomic Forecasts
17
Economic Analysis
17
Private Consumption Outlook
18
Fixed Investment Outlook
19
Government Spending Outlook
19
Net Exports
20
Table: Syria - Economic Activity
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
22
Security Risk Analysis
22
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings
23
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
23
Market Overview
25
Syria Market Overview
25
Arms Trade Overview
25
Armed Forces And Government Spending
27
Industry Trends and Developments
34
Industry Trends And Developments
38
Political Risk Analysis
38
Security Overview
43
External Security
43
Internal Security
46
Regional Overview
49
Middle East and Africa Security Overview
49
Global Industry Overview
69
Global Political Outlook
69
Eurozone
69
Iran War Risks Rising In 2013
70
Syrian Conflict To Continue, Post-Assad
71
Caucasus At Risk Of Armenia-Azerbaijan War
71
Korean Peninsula Facing Mixed Outlook
72
Asia's Maritime Island Disputes
72
Table: Election Timetable, 2013
73
Demographic Forecast
77
Table: Syria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
78
Table: Syria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
78
Table: Syria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
79
Table: Syria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
79
Methodology
80
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
80
Defence Industry
81
Sources
81

The Syria Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Syria Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Syrian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Syria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Syrian defence and security market.
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    Coverage

    Global and Regional Political Outlooks

    A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

    SWOT Analysis

    Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

    Political Risk Assessment

    Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

    Security Risk Analysis

    BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

    Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

    The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

    Domestic Security Overview

    The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

    BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

    Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

    Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

    Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

    Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

    Company Profiles

    Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

    Domestic Security Overview

    The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc