Business Monitor International


Switzerland Business Forecast Report

Published 20 October 2014

  • 43 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Switzerland Business Forecast Report
SWITZERLAND - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Notes: e BMI estimates. f BMI forecasts. Sources: 1 Swiss Federal Statistical Office; 2 World Bank/UN/BMI; 3 Swiss National Bank.
Nominal GDP, CHFbn 1 554.4 572.7 585.1 591.9 603.2 623.4 636.7 650.3 666.8 685.4
Nominal GDP, USDbn 1 510.7 549.2 611.8 636.4 655.7 641.2 639.5 640.5 651.8 672.6
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1 -1.9 3.0 1.8 1.0 2.0 3.2 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3
GDP per capita, USD 1 65,956 70,131 77,290 79,576 81,172 78,605 77,621 76,989 77,586 79,284
Population, mn 2 7.7 e 7.8 e 7.9 e 8.0 e 8.1 e 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 1 -8.0 6.4 3.9 2.6 1.1 2.7 3.5 3.7 3.4 3.2
Unemployment, % of labour force, eop 3 4.1 3.2 e 2.8 e 3.0 e 3.3 e 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1

Steady Growth Ahead

Core Views

  • Switzerland's growth trajectory over the medium term will be increasingly powered by consumer spending, with the potential for the government to step in and boost growth in the event that the situation in the eurozone puts a sharp break on Swiss growth.

  • The Swiss National Bank has set a ceiling on the Swiss franc's value versus the euro in the face of substantial appreciatory pressures resulting from the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. This will help to protect the country's export sector from a severe loss of competitiveness and thereby limit the impact of external turbulence on near-term economic growth. However, the massive scale of the monetary easing involved in such foreign exchange intervention could dramatically inflate property prices if maintained into the medium term.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have revised our 2014...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
Caught In The Middle Of Escalating West-Russia Sanctions
8
Tab le: Politica l Over view
8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
11
SWOT Analysis
11
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
11
Economic Activity I
12
Eurozone Slowdown Hitting Swiss Growth
12
Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
12
The Slow Grind Back To Positive Inflation
14
Exchange Rate
16
Current CHF Strength Will Subside Over The Medium Term
16
Table: EXCHANGE RATE
16
Table: Currency Forecast
16
Banking Sector
18
Banking Sector: Still On Track For Solid Growth
18
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Swiss Economy To 2023
21
Steady Growth To Prevail Over Long-Term
21
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
23
Operational Risk Ratings
23
Operational Risk
24
Table: Developed States - Labour Market Risk
24
Table: Developed States - Logistics Risk
27
Table: Developed States - Crime And Security Risks
29
Table: Developed States - Trade And Investment Risk
32
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
35
Telecommunications
35
Table: Telecoms Sector-Mobile-Historical Data & Forecasts
36
Table: Telecoms Sector-Wire line-Historical Data & Forecasts
37
Other Key Sectors
39
Table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators
39
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
39
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
39
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
41
Global Outlook
41
Big Emerging Market Revisions
41
Table: Global Assumptions
41
Table: Developed States , Rea l GDP Growth, %
42
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
42
Table: Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
43

The Switzerland Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Switzerland and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Switzerland's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Switzerland's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Switzerland's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Switzerland, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Switzerland Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Swiss economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Switzerland through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Switzerland Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Switzerland and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Switzerland, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Switzerland over the next 5-years?

BMI's Switzerland country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Swiss Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Switzerland.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Switzerland's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Switzerland's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for Switzerland, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Switzerland's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express