Business Monitor International


Sweden Business Forecast Report

Published 26 March 2014

  • 41 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Sweden Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • Sweden's status as an open trade-oriented economy means that its growth prospects will depend heavily upon a continued recovery in the rest of Europe.

  • The outlook for household consumption and business investment is brightening alongside a recovery in European demand.

  • With the outcome of the September 2014 election very likely to be a majority coalition government led by the Social Democrats, we expect a shift in government policy toward greater state interventionism. Such changes could include tax hikes and increasing government spending.

Major Forecast Changes

  • Following stronger-than-expected data in Q413, our forecast for real GDP growth in 2014 has been revised up to 3.2% from 2.4% previously.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Downside Growth Risks From Europe : A relapse in the European economic recovery would leave Sweden's open economy vulnerable to external demand shocks.

SWEDEN - MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
2012 2013 2014f 2015f
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2 0.8 1.5 3.2 2.8
Nominal GDP, USDbn 2 524.2 571.1 551.8 533.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 2 0.9 -0.0 0.5 2.2
Exchange rate SEK/USD, eop 3 6.50 7.20 6.96 7.67
Budget balance, % of GDP 1,2 -0.6 -1.2 -1.2 -0.8
Current account balance, % of GDP 2 6.0 6.2 5.9 5.8
Notes: f BMI forecasts. 1 Central Government. Sources: 2 Statistics Sweden/BMI; 3 BMI.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
Opposition Policies Beginning To Come Into Focus
8
Table: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Stability Assured Over Long Term
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
13
Economic Activity
14
Economy On More Solid Ground
14
Table: GDP BY EXPENDITURE
14
Exchange Rate Policy
16
SEK: Riksbank Holding Fire Amid Deflation Dangers
16
Table: EXCHANGE RATE
17
Balance Of Payments
18
Trade Surplus To Continue Narrowing
18
Table: CURRENT ACCOUNT
19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Swedish Economy To 2023
21
Well Positioned For The Long Term
21
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
21
Chapter 4: Business Environment
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
23
Business Environment Outlook
24
Institutions
24
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
24
Infrastructure
25
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
25
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
26
Market Orientation
27
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS
27
Operational Risk
28
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
29
Telecommunications
29
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
30
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
30
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data And Forecasts
31
Table : Teleco ms Sector - Mobile ARPU (SEK) - Historical Data & Forecasts
32
Other Key Sectors
33
table: PharmaCEUTICALS Sector Key Indicators
33
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
33
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
33
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
35
Global Outlook
35
Global Growth Optimism Turning To Disappointment
35
Table: Global Assumptions
35
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
36
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
36
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
37

The Sweden Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Sweden and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Sweden's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Sweden's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Sweden's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Sweden, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Sweden Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Swedish economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Sweden through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Sweden Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Sweden and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Sweden, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Sweden over the next 5-years?

BMI's Sweden country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Swedish Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Sweden.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Sweden's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Sweden's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for Sweden, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Sweden's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express