Business Monitor International


Sudan & South Sudan Power Report

Published 16 July 2014

  • 69 pages
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$1,295.00
Sudan & South Sudan Power Report

BMI View: The end of the civil war provides a window of opportunity for investors to exploit the hydrocarbons base and ample sunshine to develop a generation capacity in both Sudan and South Sudan. However, the commercial environment in both is hostile and the political environment remains highly unstable .

The outlook for Sudan's power sector is moderate. The end of the civil war provides a window of opportunity for the country to exploit its hydrocarbons base and ample sunshine to develop a domestic generation capacity. However, the commercial environment is hostile and continues to be dominated by the state-owned National Electricity Corporation, limiting the opportunity for investment. Although, Sudan is starting to develop more cross-border linkages, for the moment it remains overly dependent on South Sudan for oil.

Meanwhile, South Sudan remains a dangerous country in which to do business. Although the government and international donors are committed to developing the energy sector, the country is politically unstable and the commercial infrastructure is minimal. While abundant oil reserves means that the returns on investment are potentially high, there is also a high risk of losses.

Key Forecasts

  • Power generation in 2014 is forecast to increase by 3.0% year-on-year (y-o-y), to reach 7.2TWh.

  • Power consumption in 2014 is forecast to increase by 3.5% y-o-y, to reach 5.6TWh.

  • Transmission & distribution losses in 2014 will remain high at 21.6% of total output, although losses will decline slightly from 2013.

Recent Developments

  • In April, the Sudanese government set out plans which entail complete electricity coverage of the country by 2031; currently the grid only has 40% coverage.

  • In April, the Sudanese government announced plans to extend the successful North Kordofan's solar energy project to the entire country in order to cover the deficit in electricity production.

  • In April, the Sudanese government admitted to 'major difficulties' in the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Sudan Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Sudan and South Sudan Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Sudan Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
12
Table: Sudan Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
13
Table: Sudan Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
14
Table: Sudan Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
15
Table: Generating Capacity in South Sudan
20
Electricity Consumption
21
Table: Sudan Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
21
Table: Sudan Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
21
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
22
Table: Sudan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
22
Table: Sudan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
23
Table: Sudan Trade Data And Forecasts
23
Table: Table: Sudan Trade Data And Forecasts
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: MENA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
31
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
31
Sudan and South Sudan Power Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Rewards
32
Risks
33
Market Overview
34
Key Policies And Market Structure
34
Table: SAPP Membership
40
East Africa Power Projects Database
44
Table: East Africa Major Projects - Power
44
Competitive Landscape
48
Regional Overview
54
MEA Industry Overview
54
Glossary
63
Table: Glossary Of Terms
63
Methodology
64
Methodology And Sources
64
Industry Forecasts
64
Power Industry - Data Methodology
65
Generation and Consumption Data
65
Electricity Generating Capacity Data
66
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
67
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
69
Sources
70

The Sudan & South Sudan Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Sudan & South Sudan Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Sudan, South Sudan's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc