Business Monitor International


Sudan & South Sudan Power Report

Published 21 October 2014

  • 69 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Sudan & South Sudan Power Report

BMI View:   The end of the civil war provides a window of opportunity for investors to exploit the hydrocarbons base and ample sunshine to develop a generation capacity in both Sudan and South Sudan. However, the commercial environment in both is hostile and the political environment remains highly unstable . 

The outlook for Sudan's power sector is moderate. The end of the civil war provides a window of opportunity for the country to exploit its hydrocarbons base and ample sunshine to develop a domestic generation capacity. Power generation in 2014 will increase by 3.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 7.2TWh and consumption will grow by 3.5% y-o-y to 5.6TWh. However, the commercial environment is hostile and continues to be dominated by the state-owned National Electricity Corporation, limiting the opportunity for investment. Losses from the system are also huge, at 21.6% of total output. Meanwhile, South Sudan remains a dangerous country in which to do business. Although the government and international donors are committed to developing the energy sector, the country is politically unstable and the commercial and physical infrastructure is minimal. While abundant oil reserves means that the returns on investment are potentially high, there is also a serious risk of losses. 

Key Forecasts

  • Power generation in 2014 is forecast to increase by 3.0% year-on-year (y-o-y), to reach 7.2TWh.

  • Power consumption in 2014 is forecast to increase by 3.5% y-o-y, to reach 5.6TWh.

  • Transmission & distribution losses in 2014 will remain high at 21.6% of total output, although losses will decline slightly from 2013.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Sudan is expanding its electricity links to neighbouring states. In June, construction of 340Km, 220 KV double circuit power transmission line running from Sudan to Eritrea was initiated.

  • South Sudan continues to experience serious problems maintaining a supply of electricity. Juba experienced load shedding from June until August...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Key Forecasts
7
Recent Developments
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Sudan Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Sudan 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Sudan 2018-2023)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Sudan And South Sudan Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2017)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2018-2023)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2017)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2018-2023)
14
Table: Generating Capacity in South Sudan
20
Electricity Consumption
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2017)
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2018-2023)
21
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2017)
22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2018-2023)
23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2017)
23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2018-2023)
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: MENA - Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
33
Table: Sub Saharan Africa - Power Risk Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
33
Sudan And South Sudan Power Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Rewards
35
Risks
35
Market Overview
37
Key Policies And Market Structure
37
Sudan & South Sudan Power Projects Database
42
Table: East Africa Major Projects - Power
42
Competitive Landscape
48
Regional Overview
53
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview
53
Glossary
62
Table: Glossary Of Terms
62
Methodology
63
Methodology And Sources
63
Industry Forecast Methodology
63
Sources
66
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
66
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
69

The Sudan & South Sudan Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Sudan & South Sudan Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Sudan, South Sudan's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc