Business Monitor International


Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 23 May 2014

  • 51 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Overall pharmaceutical sales in Sudan and South Sudan are to see double-digit growth , albeit from a low base. In addition, we highlight that h igh inflation, volatile currency exchange rates and civil unrests are some of the key risks that will continue to limit pharmaceutical growth potential in Sudan and South Sudan.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: SDG2.60bn (USD560mn) in 2013 to SDG3.29bn (USD540mn) in 2014; +26.4% in local currency terms and -3.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q214.

  • Healthcare: SDG16.2bn (USD3.5bn) in 2013 to SDG18.4bn (USD3.0bn) in 2014; +13.8% in local currency terms and -12.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast downgraded from Q214 following reassessment of historic data.

Risk/Reward Ratings

Sudan's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q314 is 29.1. This is significantly lower than the MEA regional average score of 42.4, and places it 27th of 30 countries in the region. We note that the country scores below average for all indicators under industry and country risks and rewards. This is largely due to its small market size and poor economic and political environment.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In April 2014, ten state ministries of health in South Sudan launched a healthcare plan focusing on healthcare prevention and intervention mechanisms. Some of the key focus areas include malaria and human resources at primary healthcare facilities.

  • In February 2014, Sudan's parliamentary subcommittee on health revealed that 50% of the population do not have access to basic drugs, with 79% of the population having to pay out of their own pockets to purchase medicines.

BMI Economic View: Although we have upgraded our estimate for Sudan's 2013 growth based in part on the better-than-expected performance of the country's net exports, we expect that given the substantial risks that beset the country in terms of security and political risks, real GDP expansion will be more subdued in...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
13
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2010-2018)
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2010-2018)
21
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2010-2018)
21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2010-2018)
22
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Economic Analysis
23
Table: Sudan - Economic Activity
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Middle East & Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Sudan Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Rewards
35
Risks
35
Market Overview
37
Industry Trends And Developments
39
Regulatory Development
41
Regulatory Regime
41
Demographic Forecast
42
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
43
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
44
Table: Sudan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
45
Table: Sudan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
45
Demographic Forecast
46
Table: South Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
47
Table: South Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
48
Table: South Sudan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
49
Table: South Sudan's Urban And Rural Population, 1990-2020
49
Glossary
50
Methodology
52
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
52
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
52
Notes On Methodology
53
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
54
Ratings Overview
55
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
55
Indicator Weightings
56

The Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sudanese, Sudanese pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc