Business Monitor International


Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report

Published 20 February 2014

  • 101 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Although South Sudan avoided another production shut-in only after successful diplomatic efforts, political crisis was again on track to derail the oil sector. At the time of writing, South Sudan was in the midst of a civil war, which had already interrupted production that had been on its way to recovery. While the outcome of the conflict was uncertain, it underscored our caution with regard to both Sudan and South Sudan, where above-ground risks remain extremely elevated. Below ground, a similarly bearish outlook could prove problematic for the plans to construct a pipeline from South Sudan's fields to end its reliance on Khartoum. Similarly, we are less than optimistic over Sudan's push for dramatic production increases, retaining our overall bearish view for the combined oil sectors of Sudan and South Sudan.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Sudan and South Sudan's oil and gas sectors are:

  • In December 2013, a new crisis emerged with South Sudan descending into near civil war. At the time of writing, the outcome of the conflict is difficult to discern, but oil production has already been affected and a resolution does not appear to be imminent. The fighting pits elements of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), which remains loyal to current South Sudanese President Kiir, an ethnic Dinka, against a loose coalition of renegades and militia forces, led by his former deputy president Riek Machar, a Nuer, who was dismissed in July.

  • BMI witnessed employees of China National Petroleum Corporation forming large queues at Juba's international airport, in order to depart for Beijing, on December 21 2013. On December 24, a flight scheduled to take oil workers from Juba to Malakal, the capital of Upper Nile state, was cancelled, due to fighting. Not only is there the risk that fighting could spread to engulf Upper Nile's oilfields, but the heightened security risk has caused crucial foreign expertise to be withdrawn from South...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data
11
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data
12
Oil Supply And Demand
17
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Oil Production And Net Exports
17
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Oil Production And Net Exports
17
Refining And Oil Products Trade
25
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Refining - Production And Consumption
25
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Refining - Production And Consumption
25
Gas Supply And Demand
27
Revenues And Import Costs
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
30
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
32
An Underwhelming Downstream
37
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Sudan And South Sudan - Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Upstream Rating - Overview
40
Downstream Rating - Overview
41
Market Overview
42
Sudan And South Sudan Energy Market Overview
42
Table: Sudan & South Sudan Upstream Projects
45
Overview/State Role
45
Licensing And Regulation
46
Government Policy
47
Licensing Rounds
48
International Energy Relations
48
Table: Key Upstream Players
50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Table: Downstream Projects
52
Service Stations
54
Oil Storage Facilities
54
Oil Terminals/Ports
55
Oil Pipelines
55
Table: Pipeline Infrastructure
55
Competitive Landscape
57
Competitive Landscape Summary
57
Table: Key Players - Sudan Energy Sector
58
Table: Key Upstream Players
58
Table: Key Downstream Players
58
Company Profile
59
ONGC Sudan
59
CNPC
61
Petronas
64
Other Summaries
66
Regional Overview
68
Africa Overview
68
Offshore Rising
68
Unconventionals : New Frontier
71
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
71
Downstream Blues
73
High Risk Continent
75
Global Industry Overview
78
Appendix
85
Africa - Regional Appendix
85
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
87
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
89
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
90
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
90
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
91
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
92
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
92
Glossary
93
Table: Glossary Of Terms
93
Methodology
95
Industry Forecast Methodology
95
Source
97
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
97
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
99
Table: Weighting
101

The Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc