Business Monitor International


Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report

Published 10 September 2014

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$1,295.00
Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   F ighting has derailed the country's fragile production recovery, adding further downside pressure to its bearish long-term production outlook. With the government claiming loose control of the major oil fields, output could start to revive within the quarter. However, given the fractured and volatile nature of the conflict and the heavy rebel presence in the oil-producing states, we anticipate more lasting production outages .

Headline Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 112.6 250.4 240.4 336.5 386.9 417.9 408.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 94.1 103.5 98.4 102.3 110.5 112.7 113.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 94.9 100.6 99.6 101.1 103.1 107.8 112.7
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

Click here to explore data

The main trends and developments we highlight for Sudan and South Sudan's oil and gas sectors are:

  • Fighting rapidly spilled-over into the oil-producing states of Upper Nile and Unity. Production at Unity has been suspended since December, and output from Upper Nile substantially reduced. Although the government is claiming control of all the major oil fields, a heavy rebel presence in both states is continuing to disrupt supply routes. The evacuation of foreign workers has also left few technicians in place that are capable of maintaining production. 

  • In 2013, we estimate that production averaged 253,000 barrels per day (b/d) for Sudan and South Sudan. However, at 344,000b/d, output in the final quarter was significantly higher, as production recovered in the wake of a 14 month shut-in. In line with this trend, we had forecast output of around...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data
11
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data
12
Oil Supply And Demand
17
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Oil Production And Net Exports
17
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Oil Production And Net Exports
18
Refining And Oil Products Trade
26
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Refining - Production And Consumption
26
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Refining - Production And Consumption
27
Gas Supply And Demand
29
Revenues And Import Costs
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Emerging Producers Leading the Pack
32
But Risks Above Ground Loom Large
34
Brightening Horizons To The West
36
An Underwhelming Downstream
37
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Sudan And South Sudan - Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Upstream Rating - Overview
38
Downstream Rating - Overview
38
Market Overview
39
Sudan And South Sudan Energy Market Overview
39
Table: Sudan & South Sudan Upstream Projects
39
Overview/State Role
39
Licensing And Regulation
40
Government Policy
40
Licensing Rounds
41
International Energy Relations
41
Table: Key Upstream Players: Asia Firmly in the Lead
43
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
44
Oil Refineries
44
Service Stations
44
Oil Storage Facilities
45
Oil Terminals/Ports
45
Oil Pipelines
45
Table: Pipeline Infrastructure
45
Competitive Landscape
47
Competitive Landscape Summary
47
Table: Key Players - Sudan Energy Sector
48
Table: Key Upstream Players
48
Table: Key Downstream Players
48
Company Profile
49
ONGC Sudan
49
CNPC Sudan
51
Petronas Sudan
54
Other Summaries
56
Regional Overview
58
Africa Overview
58
Rising Offshore Interest
58
Unconventionals : New Frontier
60
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
61
Downstream Blues
64
High-Risk Continent
66
Global Industry Overview
70
Global Energy Market Overview
70
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
72
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
73
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
74
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
76
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
76
Appendix
79
Africa - Regional Appendix
79
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
79
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
83
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
85
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
86
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
86
Glossary
87
Table: Glossary Of Terms
87
Methodology
89
Industry Forecast Methodology
89
Source
91
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
91
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
93
Table: Weighting
94

The Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc