Business Monitor International


Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report

Published 27 January 2014

  • 49 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report

Heightened political and macroeconomic risks are the main factors behind our poor outlook for new vehicle sales market in Sudan. We maintain our bearish forecast for Sudanese new car sales at just 6,890 new car sales in 2018 - up slightly from 4,000 cars expected to be sold in 2013.

Last quarter, we saw significant room for optimism for the autos market in South Sudan, thanks to its huge oil reserves, expanding population, large amount of arable land and proposed integration with other East African nations. However, with the country plunging back into crisis, this hangs in the balance. While conflicts between various tribes and ethnicities were already ongoing in both countries, the descent into full-scale armed conflict in South Sudan has major negative implications for both countries, significantly curtailing growth and deteriorating the external accounts.

We have downgraded our forecast for South Sudan's growth in 2014, from 21.1% to 10.6%, owing to the disruptions associated with the conflict.

We have made an upward revision to South Sudan's inflation for 2014 as shortages are expected to occur. We now see inflation rising to 24.2% year-on-year by end-2014, compared to our previous projections of 12.0%.

We expect that Sudan's economy will grow at a quicker pace than in 2013, but substantial challenges remain, including rampant inflation, security challenges, import dependence, and severe economic imbalances will keep real GDP expansion below potential. We are forecasting growth of 2.5% in 2014, up from an estimated 1.4% in 2013.

Inflation averaged 36.6% over the first 11 months of 2013, among the highest rates in the world. Unfortunately for consumer purchasing power, the trend is in the wrong direction, with price growth rising to 42.6% year-on-year in November, up from a low of 22.9% in August. Although policymakers have committed to bringing inflation under control by refraining from printing money to finance government expenditures, we expect that...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
9
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Sales
13
Table: Sudan Automotives Historical Data & Forecasts
13
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Table: Sudan - Economic Activity
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
22
Africa - Risk Reward/Ratings
22
Table: Autos Risk/Reward Ratings - Sub-Saharan Africa
25
Competitive Landscape
26
Company Profile
28
Company News Alert
28
Table: Top 20 SSA Consumer Markets, 2013
29
Regional Overview
30
Africa: Fruits of Investment A Key Theme For 2014
30
Competition Heats Up In Kenya
30
Hubs Developing-
31
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Investment Projects
32
Divergent Fortunes Of Nigeria And South Africa
33
Global Industry Overview
35
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
35
Europe On Road To Recovery
35
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
37
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
39
Demographic Forecast
42
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
43
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
44
Table: Sudan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
45
Table: Sudan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
45
Methodology
46
Industry Forecasts
46
Sector-Specific Methodology
47
Sources
47
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
48
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
49

The Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Sudan, South Sudan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Sudan, South Sudan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc