Business Monitor International


Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report

Published 31 October 2014

  • 49 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report

BMI View:   Rising political unrest and insecurity across Sudan represent a growing threat to economic activity and autos sales in the country. We maintain our bearish forecast for Sudanese new car sales at just 6,890 new car sales in 2018, up slightly from 4,600 cars expected to be sold in 2014.

Rising political unrest and insecurity across Sudan will significantly disrupt economic activity over the coming quarters. High inflation will continue to weigh on headline growth and private consumption especially, while the ongoing crisis in South Sudan will see oil production stall. We predict that real GDP growth will register 2.0 % in 2014 and 4.3% in 2015, with risks weighted heavily to the downside.

We have revised down our economic growth forecasts for Sudan in light of a deteriorating security situation. We are now forecasting real GDP growth of 2.0% and 4.3% in 2014 and 2015 respectively, down from 2.4% and 4.8% previously and we caution that risks are weighted firmly to the downside.

Private consumption will remain subdued over the coming months and we are forecasting a real terms increase of just 2.2% in 2014. While we expect private consumption growth to quicken in 2015, it will remain well below historical trend levels.

Conflicts in a number of states have displaced thousands of people, seriously disrupting normal economic activity and the ability of households to maintain their income levels. High inflation will continue to erode consumer purchasing power over the coming months. Headline price growth reached 37.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in February 2014 (the latest available figure) down from 40.9% in January. The violence and unrest that has impacted large parts of the country has added to the already significant upward pressure on prices. The withdrawal of government subsidies in late 2013 saw the price of fuel almost double.

The impact of poor 2013 harvests of staples such as sorghum and millet has also seen food prices rise in recent months -...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
7
Political
7
Economic
9
Business Environment
10
Industry Forecast
11
Sales
11
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2018
12
Macroeconomic Forecasts
17
Table: Sudan - Economic Activity
20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
21
Table: Autos Risk/Reward Ratings - Sub-Saharan Africa
24
Competitive Landscape
25
Company Profile
27
Company Monitor
27
Regional Overview
30
Global Industry Overview
38
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
38
European Growth Gathers Momentum
38
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
40
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
41
Demographic Forecast
44
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
45
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
46
Table: Sudan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
47
Table: Sudan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
47
Methodology
48
Industry Forecasts
48
Sector-Specific Methodology
49
Sources
49
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
50
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
51

The Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Sudan, South Sudan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Sudan, South Sudan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

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