BMI View: Rising political unrest and insecurity across Sudan represent a growing threat to economic activity and autos sales in the country. We maintain our bearish forecast for Sudanese new car sales at just 6,890 new car sales in 2018, up slightly from 4,600 cars expected to be sold in 2014.
Rising political unrest and insecurity across Sudan will significantly disrupt economic activity over the coming quarters. High inflation will continue to weigh on headline growth and private consumption especially, while the ongoing crisis in South Sudan will see oil production stall. We predict that real GDP growth will register 2.0 % in 2014 and 4.3% in 2015, with risks weighted heavily to the downside.
We have revised down our economic growth forecasts for Sudan in light of a deteriorating security situation. We are now forecasting real GDP growth of 2.0% and 4.3% in 2014 and 2015 respectively, down from 2.4% and 4.8% previously and we caution that risks are weighted firmly to the downside.
Private consumption will remain subdued over the coming months and we are forecasting a real terms increase of just 2.2% in 2014. While we expect private consumption growth to quicken in 2015, it will remain well below historical trend levels.
Conflicts in a number of states have displaced thousands of people, seriously disrupting normal economic activity and the ability of households to maintain their income levels. High inflation will continue to erode consumer purchasing power over the coming months. Headline price growth reached 37.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in February 2014 (the latest available figure) down from 40.9% in January. The violence and unrest that has impacted large parts of the country has added to the already significant upward pressure on prices. The withdrawal of government subsidies in late 2013 saw the price of fuel almost double.
The impact of poor 2013 harvests of staples such as sorghum and millet has also seen food prices rise in recent months -...
The Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Sudan, South Sudan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Sudan, South Sudan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
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