Heightened political and macroeconomic risks are the main factors behind our poor outlook for new vehicle sales market in Sudan. We maintain our bearish forecast for Sudanese new car sales at just 6,890 new car sales in 2018 - up slightly from 4,000 cars expected to be sold in 2013.
In the first quarter of 2014, we saw significant room for optimism for the autos market in South Sudan, thanks to its huge oil reserves, expanding population, large amount of arable land and proposed integration with other East African nations. However, with the country plunging back into crisis, this hangs in the balance. While conflicts between various tribes and ethnicities were already ongoing in both countries, the descent into full-scale armed conflict in South Sudan has major negative implications for both countries, significantly curtailing growth and deteriorating the external accounts.
We have revised our 2013 growth estimate for Sudan thanks to stronger-than-expected growth in the country's exports, which helped to offset what we believe were low rates of expansion in private consumption, brought about as a result of government policies which eroded purchasing power. We believe that growth reached 2.9% in 2013, up from our previous estimate of 1.4%. However, looking forward, we believe that risks are weighted to the downside, particularly given the risks associated with a deterioration in security at home and in neighbouring South Sudan. As a result, we are forecasting growth to ease to 2.4% in 2014.
We believe that private consumption will remained subdued in 2014, given the fact that inter-tribal conflicts in a number of states have displaced thousands of people, seriously disrupting normal economic activity and the ability of households to maintain their income levels. Meanwhile, although Sudan's soaring headline inflation rate fell sharply in mid-2013, to a low of 22.8% year-on-year, the rate quickly gained pace over the final months of the year, with December's print...
The Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Sudan, South Sudan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Sudan, South Sudan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.