Business Monitor International

Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report

Published 20 October 2014 | Quarterly

  • 35 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report

Core Views:

  • While hopes of genuine political reform have been raised of late, a peaceful outcome to the country's ongoing governance malaise in time for general elections in April 2015 remains unlikely .

  • Economic conditions in Sudan will improve over the coming quarters, but nonetheless remain challenging. We are forecasting real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2015 from an estimated 2.6% in 2014.

  • Sudan's inflation prospects have improved of late and we predict that price growth will average 21.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2015 compared to an estimated 37.4% y-o-y in 2014. The wearing-off of high base effects (associated with the September 2013 currency devaluation), favourable agricultural production prospects and a greater degree of exchange rate stability will help to anchor inflation.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • No major forecast changes

Key Risks To Outlook:

  • Political risk remains the most salient threat to our outlook, as a further deterioration of the security situation could further threaten the economic stability and long-term outlook for both countries.

  • The price of oil represents another important risk to our forecasts, both positive and negative, given both countries are among Africa's top crude producers.

Forecast Tables:

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Sudan 2014-2019)
Indicator 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
Nominal GDP, USDbn 63.8 76.2 87.4 98.0 112.0 129.2
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.6 3.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 25.0 18.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 10.0
Exchange rate SDG/USD, eop 6.25 6.50 6.75 7.00 7.00 7.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.6 -4.4 -4.4 -4.3 -4.2 -4.4
Current account balance, % of GDP -7.5 -9.4 -8.4 -7.7 -7.0 -6.2
National Sources/BMI

Click here to explore data

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Sudan 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015f

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks To Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Political Reform Chances Slim
Foreign Policy
Khartoum Running Short On Friends
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
South Sudan Monetary Policy
Price Of Insecurity To Rise
TABLE: South Sudan - Monetary Policy
Sudan Economic Activity
Growth Conditions To Remain Highly Challenging
TABLE: sudan - Economic Activity
Sudan Investment Climate
Political Uncertainty To Dent Investment Prospects
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
The South Sudanese Economy To 2023
Vast Potential, Significant Challenges
TABLE: South Sudan - Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
The Sudanese Economy To 2023
Secession Poses Key Risk For Long-Term Growth
TABLE: Sudan - Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk Index
Operational Risk
TABLE: Operational Risk
Transport Network
TABLE: Tra nsport Network
Economic Openness
TABLE: Economic Openness
TABLE: Top 5 Trade Partners - Product Exports (2012), USDmn
TABLE: Product Imports (USDbn)
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
Big Emerging Market Revisions
Table: Global Assumptions
Table : Developed States , Real GDP Growt H, %
Table : Emergi ng Mar kets , Real GDP Growth , %

The Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Sudan and South Sudan and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Sudan and South Sudan's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Sudan and South Sudan's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Sudan and South Sudan's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Sudan and South Sudan, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Sudan and South Sudan economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Sudan and South Sudan through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:


  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Sudan and South Sudan and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Sudan and South Sudan, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Sudan and South Sudan over the next 5-years?

BMI's Sudan and South Sudan country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Sudan and South Sudan Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Sudan and South Sudan.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Sudan and South Sudan's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Sudan and South Sudan's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for Sudan and South Sudan, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Sudan and South Sudan's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express