Business Monitor International


Sudan and South Sudan Business Forecast Report

Published 23 April 2014

  • 35 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Sudan and South Sudan Business Forecast Report

Core Views:

  • Sudan's government is grappling with multiple insurgencies, and its remaining authority will continue to dwindle, especially outside the capital. Violence within the traditionally pro-government Arab community poses a serious threat to the regime's survival.

  • Rising political unrest and insecurity across Sudan will significantly disrupt economic activity over the coming quarters. High inflation will continue to weigh on headline growth and private consumption especially, while the ongoing crisis in South Sudan will see oil production stall.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We have revised down our economic growth forecasts for Sudan in light of a deteriorating security situation. We are now forecasting real GDP growth of 2.0% and 4.3% in 2014 and 2015 respectively, down from 2.4% and 4.8% previously, and we caution that risks are weighted firmly to the downside.

Key Risks To Outlook:

  • Political risk remains the most salient threat to our outlook, as a further deterioration of the security situation could further threaten the economic stability and long-term outlook for both countries.

  • The price of oil represents another important risk to our forecasts, both positive and negative, given both countries are among Africa's top crude producers.

Forecast Tables:

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Sudan 2013-2018)
Indicator 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Nominal GDP, USDbn 60.3 61.8 73.5 82.1 89.1 98.6
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.9 2.0 4.3 4.8 4.8 4.8
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 41.9 25.0 15.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Exchange rate SDG/USD, eop 5.98 6.25 6.50 6.75 7.00 7.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.3 -2.5 -3.1 -3.5 -3.7 -4.0
Current account balance, % of GDP -7.4 -7.3 -6.6 -6.5 -6.4 -6.3
National Sources/BMI

Click here to explore data

Macroeconomic Forecasts (South Sudan 2013-2018)
Indicator ...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
Al-Bashir: Playing to Gallery of Hawks
8
Foreign Policy
9
Deepening Ties With Iran
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
11
SWOT Analysis
11
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
11
Sudan: Economic Activity
12
Recession May Be Over, But Challenges Abound
12
TABLE: SUDAN - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
12
South Sudan: Economic Activity
14
Challenges Remain, But 2013 Should Be An Improvement
14
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
14
Sudan: Balance Of Payments
16
Some Headway In Addressing Huge Trade Deficit
16
TABLE: SUDAN - CURRENT ACCOUNT
16
South Sudan: Long-Term Economic Outlook
17
The South Sudanese Economy To 2022
17
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN - LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
17
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Sudanese Economy To 2022
21
Secession Poses Key Risk For Long-Term Growth
21
TABLE: SUDAN - LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 4: Business Environment
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
23
Business Environment Outlook
24
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
24
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
25
Infrastructure
26
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
26
TABLE: AFRICA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
27
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS
28
Operational Risk
29
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
31
Global Outlook
31
Growth May Be Turning The Corner
31
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
31
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
32
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS (%)
32
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
33

The Sudan and South Sudan Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Sudan and South Sudan and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Sudan and South Sudan's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Sudan and South Sudan's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Sudan and South Sudan's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Sudan and South Sudan, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Sudan and South Sudan Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Sudan and South Sudan economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Sudan and South Sudan through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Sudan and South Sudan Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Sudan and South Sudan and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Sudan and South Sudan, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Sudan and South Sudan over the next 5-years?

BMI's Sudan and South Sudan country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Sudan and South Sudan Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Sudan and South Sudan.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Sudan and South Sudan's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Sudan and South Sudan's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for Sudan and South Sudan, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Sudan and South Sudan's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.
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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express