Business Monitor International


Sri Lanka Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 11 April 2014

  • 80 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Sri Lanka Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: A better-than-expected outlook for Sri Lanka's economy has led us to upwardly revise our pharmaceutical and healthcare forecasts. The government has introduced price controls on wholesale and retail prices of imported drugs, which will limit trade . However, the government's focus on import s of low-cost drugs directly from the g overnments of Bangladesh and Thailand, using the state pharmaceutical corporation, will limit dependency on Indian exporters. Further more , the government's strengthening of its strategic partnership with China is positive for th e sector in the long term.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: LKR67.70bn (U$524mn) in 2013, to LKR109.17bn (US820mn) in 2018, experiencing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% in local currency terms and 7.2% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: LKR283.97bn (USD2.20bn) in 2013, to LKR478.24bn (USD3.57bn) by 2018; +11% in local currency terms and 10.2% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

Sri Lanka's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q214 stands at 37 out of a total of 100, making it the seventeenth-most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Asia Pacific region. In Q413, Sri Lanka scored 39 out of 100.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In March 2014, the Government announced a control on retail and wholesale prices of all imported pharmaceutical drugs registered with the Cosmetics, Devices and Drug Authority (CCDA) in Sri Lanka, according to the Daily News. Wholesale and retail prices of 15,000 imported drugs registered with the CDDA available in the local market cannot be increased without permission from the Consumer Affairs Authority. Maximum retail prices will be stipulated on drugs and their prices revised periodically based on a cost study.

  • In March 2014, the World Health Organisation highlighted that Chronic Kidney Disease had become a major health problem in rural Sri Lanka. According to the WHO, more than 15% of the population aged 15-70...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Sri Lanka Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
17
Table: Sri Lanka Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
17
Table: Sri Lanka Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
19
Table: Sri Lanka Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
20
Table: Sri Lanka Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (LKRmn)
20
Other Healthcare Data
21
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
21
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Economic Analysis
23
Table: Sri Lanka - GDP By Expenditure
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Sri Lanka Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Rewards
36
Risks
36
Market Overview
38
Industry Trends And Developments
39
Epidemiology
39
Healthcare System
42
Hospital Sector
43
Healthcare Financing
46
Clinical Trials
46
Regulatory Development
47
Regulatory Regime
47
Regulatory Developments
49
Counterfeits
51
Pricing And Reimbursement Regimes
52
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments
53
Supply Chain
54
Competitive Landscape
56
Pharmaceutical Industry
56
Table: Local Drug Manufacturers
57
Pharmaceutical Industry Developments
57
Pharmaceutical Distribution And Retail
59
Company Profile
60
State Pharmaceuticals Corporation (SPC)
60
Hemas Holdings
63
GlaxoSmithKline
66
Demographic Forecast
69
Table: Sri Lanka's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
70
Table: Sri Lanka's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
71
Table: Sri Lanka's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
72
Table: Sri Lanka's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
72
Glossary
73
Methodology
75
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
75
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
75
Notes On Methodology
76
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
77
Ratings Overview
78
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
78
Indicator Weightings
79

The Sri Lanka Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Sri Lanka Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sri Lankan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Sri Lanka to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sri Lankan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Sri Lankan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sri Lanka.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc