Business Monitor International


Southern Africa Telecommunications Report

Published 02 October 2014

  • 157 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Southern Africa Telecommunications Report

BMI View :  BMI's Q 4 14 Southern Africa report analyses the latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets in Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Mauritius and Namibia. It also contains analysis of the latest market data relating to the end of June 2014   a nd an update of   our five-year forecasts to 2018 for the mobile, fixed-line and internet sectors.  

Key Data

  • The five countries in our coverage recorded an average growth of 1.5% in Q214. Mozambique recorded the fastest growth at 3.5%, while Botswana contracted by 0.3%.

  • The average mobile penetration rate of the five countries in our coverage was 103.4% at the end of June 2014. Botswana had the highest penetration rate at 157.2%, while Mozambique had the lowest at 51.7%.

  • 3G as a proportion of total mobile penetration reached double figures in five countries by the end of 2013.

  • Although internet penetration is rising rapidly due to the increasing use of mobile phones to access the web, broadband penetration still remains below 5% in most cases, held back by the high cost PCs and laptops.

Key Developments

Angola's  Unitel plans to invest around USD1.9bn in the deployment and upgrade of next generation fibre optic and mobile broadband networks over the next 10 years. The operator has stepped up its network investment efforts in the last five years to cope with the growing demand for data services. In January 2013, the operator earmarked AOA130bn (USD1.35bn) for network investment for the three-year period 2013-2015. The same level of CAPEX was spent by the operator in the three years ended 2012. Meanwhile, Brazilian group  Oi, which now controls  Portugal Telecom (PT), has decided to sell PT's African assets, including a 25% stake in Unitel, valued at EUR900mn-1.4bn. Although we expect the sale to attract significant invest from foreign investors owing to the market's value growth potential, local businesswoman and daughter of the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Angola
11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Angola 2011-2018)
11
Botswana
14
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Botswana 2011-2018)
14
Mauritius
17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Mauritius 2011-2018)
17
Mozambique
20
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Mozambique 2011-2018)
20
Namibia
23
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Namibia 2011-2018)
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Q414 Africa RRR Table
30
Market Overview
32
Angola
32
Regional Perspective
32
Table: Angola - Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
32
Key Developments
32
Market Growth
33
Market Share
34
Networks
34
Fixed Line And Internet
35
Botswana
39
Regional Perspective
39
Table: Botswana - Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
39
Key Developments
39
Market Growth
40
Market Share
41
Usage
42
Networks And VAS
42
Fixed Line And Internet
44
Mauritius
46
Regional Perspective
46
Table: Mauritius - Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
46
Key Developments
46
Market Growth
47
Market Shares
48
Networks
49
Fixed Line And Internet
49
Mozambique
52
Regional Perspective
52
Table: Mozambique - Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
52
Key Developments
52
Market Growth
52
Market Shares
53
ARPU
55
Networks
55
Fixed Line And Internet
56
Namibia
58
Regional Perspective
58
Table: Namibia - Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
58
Key Developments
58
Market Growth
59
Market Shares
60
Networks
60
Fixed Line And Internet
61
Africa Mobile Content
64
Table: Selected Regional VAS Developments, H114
69
Regulatory Development
73
Regulatory Overview
73
Regulatory Environment And Industry Developments
73
Table: Southern Africa Telecoms Regulators
73
Competitive Landscape
77
Table: Key Players: Southern African Telecoms
77
Company Profile
78
Unitel Angola
78
mcel Mozambique
81
MTC Namibia
84
MTN
87
Table: MTN Operational Indicators
90
Airtel Africa
92
Table: Selected Key Developments
96
France T-l-com
99
Table: Mobile And Fixed-Line Subscriptions ('000)
102
Regional Overview
105
Table: HTA Footprint, July 2014
105
Demographic Forecast
110
Table: Angola's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
111
Table: Angola's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
112
Table: Angola's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
113
Table: Angola's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
113
Demographic Forecast
114
Table: Botswana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
115
Table: Botswana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
116
Table: Botswana's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
117
Table: Botswana's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
117
Demographic Forecast
118
Table: Mauritius' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
119
Table: Mauritius' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
120
Table: Mauritius' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
121
Table: Mauritius' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
121
Demographic Forecast
122
Table: Mozambique's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
123
Table: Mozambique's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
124
Table: Mozambique's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
125
Table: Mozambique's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
125
Demographic Forecast
126
Table: Namibia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
127
Table: Namibia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
128
Table: Namibia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
129
Table: Namibia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
129
Glossary
130
Table: Glossary Of Terms
130
Methodology
132
Industry Forecast Methodology
132
Sources
134
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
134
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
135
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
136

The Southern Africa Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Zimbabwe, Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, Mauritius's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Southern Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Zimbabwe, Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, Mauritius.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Zimbabwe, Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, Mauritius to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zimbabwean, Angolan, Botswanan, Mozambican, Namibian, Zambian, Mauritian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Zimbabwe, Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, Mauritius's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zimbabwe, Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, Mauritius.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc