Business Monitor International


Southern Africa Telecommunications Report

Published 30 June 2014

  • 157 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Southern Africa Telecommunications Report

BMI View :  BMI's Q 4 14 Southern Africa report analyses the latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets in Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Mauritius and Namibia. It also contains analysis of the latest market data relating to the end of June 2014   a nd an update of   our five-year forecasts to 2018 for the mobile, fixed-line and internet sectors.  

Key Data

  • The five countries in our coverage recorded an average growth of 1.5% in Q214. Mozambique recorded the fastest growth at 3.5%, while Botswana contracted by 0.3%.

  • The average mobile penetration rate of the five countries in our coverage was 103.4% at the end of June 2014. Botswana had the highest penetration rate at 157.2%, while Mozambique had the lowest at 51.7%.

  • 3G as a proportion of total mobile penetration reached double figures in five countries by the end of 2013.

  • Although internet penetration is rising rapidly due to the increasing use of mobile phones to access the web, broadband penetration still remains below 5% in most cases, held back by the high cost PCs and laptops.

Key Developments

Angola's  Unitel plans to invest around USD1.9bn in the deployment and upgrade of next generation fibre optic and mobile broadband networks over the next 10 years. The operator has stepped up its network investment efforts in the last five years to cope with the growing demand for data services. In January 2013, the operator earmarked AOA130bn (USD1.35bn) for network investment for the three-year period 2013-2015. The same level of CAPEX was spent by the operator in the three years ended 2012. Meanwhile, Brazilian group  Oi, which now controls  Portugal Telecom (PT), has decided to sell PT's African assets, including a 25% stake in Unitel, valued at EUR900mn-1.4bn. Although we expect the sale to attract significant invest from foreign investors owing to the market's value growth potential, local businesswoman and daughter of the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
9
SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Angola
13
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Angola 2011-2018)
13
Botswana
17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Botswana 2011-2018)
17
Mauritius
20
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Mauritius 2011-2018)
20
Mozambique
23
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Mozambique 2011-2018)
23
Namibia
26
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Namibia 2011-2018)
26
Zambia
30
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Zambia 2011-2018)
30
Zimbabwe
33
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2011-2018)
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms RRRs, Q314
40
Market Overview
42
Angola
42
Regional Perspective
42
Table: Angola - Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
42
Key Developments
42
Market Growth
43
Market Share
44
Networks
45
Fixed Line And Internet
46
Botswana
49
Regional Perspective
49
Table: Botswana - Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
49
Key Developments
49
Market Growth
50
Market Share
51
Usage
52
Networks
53
Fixed Line And Internet
54
Mauritius
56
Regional Perspective
56
Table: Mauritius - Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
56
Key Developments
56
Market Growth
57
Market Shares
58
Networks
59
Fixed Line And Internet
59
Mozambique
62
Regional Perspective
62
Table: Mozambique - Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
62
Key Developments
62
Market Growth
63
Market Shares
64
ARPU
65
Networks
66
Fixed Line And Internet
67
Namibia
68
Regional Perspective
68
Table: Namibia - Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
68
Key Developments
68
Market Growth
68
Market Shares
70
Networks
70
Fixed Line And Internet
72
Zambia
75
Regional Perspective
75
Table: Zambia - Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
75
Key Developments
75
Market Growth
76
Market Shares
78
Networks
79
Fixed Line And Internet
80
Zimbabwe
82
Regional Perspective
82
Table: Zimbabwe - Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
82
Key Developments
82
Market Growth
83
Market Shares
84
ARPU
84
Networks
85
Fixed Line And Internet
86
Africa Mobile Content
90
Table: Selected Non-Voice Service Deployments In 2013
93
Regulatory Development
95
Regulatory Overview
95
Regulatory Environment And Industry Developments
95
Table: Southern Africa Telecoms Regulators
95
Competitive Landscape
101
Table: Key Players: Southern African Telecoms
101
Company Profile
102
Unitel Angola
102
mcel Mozambique
105
Econet Zimbabwe
108
MTC Namibia
112
France T-l-com
115
Table: Mobile & Fixed-Line Subscribers ('000)
118
MTN
121
Table: MTN Operational Indicators
124
Airtel Africa
126
Table: Selected Key Developments
129
Regional Overview
132
Aviat Networks Seek Regional Growth Opportunities
132
Demographic Forecast
136
Table: Angola's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
137
Table: Angola's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
138
Table: Angola's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
139
Table: Angola's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
139
Demographic Forecast
140
Table: Botswana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
141
Table: Botswana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
142
Table: Botswana's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
143
Table: Botswana's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
143
Demographic Forecast
144
Table: Mauritius' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
145
Table: Mauritius' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
146
Table: Mauritius' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
147
Table: Mauritius' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
147
Demographic Forecast
148
Table: Mozambique's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
149
Table: Mozambique's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
150
Table: Mozambique's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
151
Table: Mozambique's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
151
Demographic Forecast
152
Table: Namibia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
153
Table: Namibia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
154
Table: Namibia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
155
Table: Namibia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
155
Demographic Outlook
156
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
157
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
158
Table: Zambia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
159
Table: Zambia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
159
Demographic Forecast
160
Table: Zimbabwe's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
161
Table: Zimbabwe's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
162
Table: Zimbabwe's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
163
Table: Zimbabwe's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
163
Glossary
164
Table: Glossary Of Terms
164
Methodology
166
Industry Forecast Methodology
166
Sources
167
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
168
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
169
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
170

The Southern Africa Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Zimbabwe, Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, Mauritius's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Southern Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Zimbabwe, Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, Mauritius.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Zimbabwe, Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, Mauritius to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zimbabwean, Angolan, Botswanan, Mozambican, Namibian, Zambian, Mauritian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Zimbabwe, Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, Mauritius's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zimbabwe, Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, Mauritius.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc