Business Monitor International


South Korea Power Report

Published 18 March 2014

  • 61 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Korea Power Report

BMI View: The medium-term outlook for South Korea's electricity sector is positive, as stable economic and demographic growth and the government's greater focus on the sector will provide opportunities and minimise electricity shortfalls. However, in the near term, uncertainty clouds the outlook for both incumbents and new entrants, as the public remains distrustful of nuclear power and certain groups resist the building of new transmission projects. However, the government has shown that it is willing to raise electricity tariffs to rein in demand and fuel import bills.

We forecast overall power generation in South Korea to grow at an average of 4.2% per annum between 2014 and 2023, reaching 794.9 terawatt hours (TWh) by the end of the period. While coal- and gas-fired generation will continue to play a vital role, we expect nuclear generation to exhibit the fastest growth rates. That said, we believe that these high growth rates will feature more greatly in the second half of our 10-year forecast period, given the current high level of public distrust of nuclear power.

Key trends and changes in the industry:

  • We believe that the approval of the Shin Kori 5 & 6 nuclear reactors is a positive development for South Korea's nuclear energy sector, which has been under intense scrutiny following a safety scandal in 2012 and the Fukushima disaster in 2011. The government had decided to reduce the country's reliance on nuclear energy in a review prompted by these events, but will still need to build more reactors in order to meet growing energy demand and replace ageing facilities. The approval of Shin Kori 5 & 6 also bodes well for the country's plan to export nuclear technology.

  • Our view that South Korea would undertake further efforts to curb rampant electricity consumption growth in 2014 looks set to play out, with the finance ministry unveiling plans to impose a tax on coal use in power generation. In establishing the parameters of the coal tax and reducing...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
South Korea Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
South Korea Power Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: South Korea Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
11
Table: South Korea Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
13
Table: South Korea Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
15
Table: South Korea Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
15
Electricity Consumption
22
Table: South Korea Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
22
Table: South Korea Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Data And Forecasts, 2018-2023
22
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
24
Table: South Korea Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
24
Table: South Korea Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2018-2023
24
Table: South Korea Trade Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
24
Table: South Korea Trade Data And Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
25
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Fact Box: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap
30
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
32
South Korea Power Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Rewards
33
Risks
33
Market Overview
35
Key Policies And Market Structure
35
Regulation And Competition
35
Sustainable Energy Policies
36
Pricing
38
South Korea Power Projects Database
39
Table: Key Power Projects
39
Competitive Landscape
43
Company Profile
45
Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco)
45
Regional Overview
49
Asia Pacific Power Regional Overview
49
Glossary
57
Table: Glossary Of Terms
57
Methodology
58
Methodology And Sources
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sources
61
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
61
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The South Korea Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The South Korea Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for South Korea to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks South Korea's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Ratings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc