Business Monitor International


South Korea Power Report

Published 18 March 2014

  • 61 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Korea Power Report

BMI View: While our medium-term outlook for South Korea's electricity sector remains positive, with fundamental factors such as stable economic, positive demographic growth and supportive public policy all provid ing power companies with opportunities, we note the growing conflict concerns about pollution and safety will weigh on profitability. However, in the short-term we believe the imperative to minimise electricity shortfalls will prevail, which should therefore see the government take a more positive stance to encourage the expansion of generation capacity.

We forecast overall power generation in South Korea to grow at an average of 4.2% per annum between 2014 and 2023, reaching 794.9 terawatt hours (TWh) by the end of the period. While coal- and gas-fired generation will continue to play a vital role, we expect nuclear generation to exhibit the fastest growth rates. That said, we believe these high growth rates will feature more greatly in the second half of our 10-year forecast period, given the current high level of public distrust of nuclear power.

Key trends and changes in the industry:

  • The government will implement a tax on coal imports in July, while simultaneously cutting the tax on liquefied natural gas (LNG) to KRW42/kg from KRW60/kg, and propane to KRW14/kg from KRW20/kg and kerosene to KRW72/litre from KRW104/litre. While this move was widely expected by the industry, we believe it clearly exemplifies the pressure the government is under to shape its tax and incentive structures to encourage the power sector to adopt cleaner technologies to meet the country's growing demand for electricity. We note however, this move is likely to dampen near-term profitability as firms slowly build and adapt their capacity to the changing environment.

  • Another nuclear plant, Hanul No.1, with capacity of 950MW, has been shuttered due to a glitch in the control rod, making it a total of five plants offline out of the country's 23 nuclear reactors.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
South Korea Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
South Korea Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: South Korea Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
12
Table: South Korea Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
14
Table: South Korea Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011 - 2016
16
Table: Table: South Korea Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
17
Electricity Consumption
21
Table: South Korea Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts: 2011-2016
21
Table: South Korea Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Data And Forecasts: 2017-2022
22
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
23
Table: South Korea Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
23
Table: South Korea Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2017 - 2022
23
Table: South Korea Trade Data And Forecasts: 2011-2016
24
Table: South Korea Trade Data And Forecasts: 2017-2022
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap
27
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
30
South Korea Power Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Rewards
31
Risks
31
Market Overview
32
Key Policies And Market Structure
32
Regulation and Competition
32
Sustainable Energy Policies
33
Pricing
34
South Korea Power Project Database
35
Table: Key Power Projects
35
Competitive Landscape
38
Company Profile
40
Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco)
40
Regional Overview
44
Asia Power Regional Overview
44
Aversion To Nuclear Energy Wearing Off
45
Coal To Grow, Supported By Imports
46
Glossary
48
Table: Glossary Of Terms
48
Methodology
49
Methodology And Sources
49
Industry Forecasts
49
Power Industry - Data Methodology
50
Generation and Consumption Data
50
Electricity Generating Capacity Data
51
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
52
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
54
Sources
55

The South Korea Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The South Korea Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for South Korea to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks South Korea's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc