Business Monitor International

South Korea Power Report

Published 18 December 2014

  • 61 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
South Korea Power Report

BMI View: While our medium-term outlook for South Korea's electricity sector remains positive, with fundamental factors such as stable economic, positive demographic growth and supportive public policy all provid ing power companies with opportunities, we note the growing conflict concerns about pollution and safety will weigh on profitability. However, in the short-term we believe the imperative to minimise electricity shortfalls will prevail, which should therefore see the government take a more positive stance to encourage the expansion of generation capacity.

We forecast overall power generation in South Korea to grow at an average of 4.2% per annum between 2014 and 2023, reaching 788.1 terawatt hours (TWh) by the end of the period. While coal- and gas-fired generation will continue to play a vital role, we expect nuclear generation to exhibit the fastest growth rates. That said, we believe these high growth rates will feature more greatly in the second half of our 10-year forecast period, given the current high level of public distrust of nuclear power.

Key T rends A nd Developments

  • The South Korean market for LNG will cool in the near-term, as high prices and company obligations to cut expenditure will see Kogas and utilities trim LNG purchases and rely on nuclear whenever possible. In the longer term, new gas power plants and the country's quest to increase power supply to the market will still see LNG demand tick upwards, al though we have also moderated our forecasts to show slower demand growth.

  • The South Korean government appears significantly more prepared to introduce a cap-and-trade system on emissions of carbon dioxide than it was in 2013. That said, we see a number of key obstacles and shortcomings that have yet to be addressed, such as the government's expected price for carbon permits and its method for data collection and forecasting.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
South Korea Snapshot
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (South Korea 2013-2018)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (South Korea 2018-2023)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
South Korea Power Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2012-2017)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2018-2023)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2012-2017)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2018-2023)
Electricity Consumption
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2012-2017)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2018-2023)
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2012-2017)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2018-2023)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2012-2017)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2018-2023)
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific Power Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
South Korea Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Sustainable Energy Policies
Carbon Trading
Table: Fact Box: Emissions Reduction Targets By Industry
Table: Fact Box: Top Emitters Of Carbon Dioxide In 2012 By Country
South Korea Power Projects Database
Table: Key Power Projects
Competitive Landscape
Company Profile
Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco)
Regional Overview
Asia Pacific Power Regional Overview
Table: Fact Box: Key Strategies Of Fourth Basic Energy Plan
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

The South Korea Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The South Korea Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for South Korea to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks South Korea's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc