Business Monitor International


South Korea Oil & Gas Report

Published 15 May 2014

  • 96 pages
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$1,295.00
South Korea Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: While there are efforts to stimulate upstream oil and gas activity, there is little to suggest that South Korea can develop significant resources, meaning the country is set to remain a key importer of crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) . Public aversion against nuclear is set to support LNG demand in South Korea, while oil demand could soften from 2020 on the back of rising fuel efficiency, particularly in the transport sector, and a switch to non-oil alternatives.

The main trends and developments we highlight for the South Korean oil and gas sector are:

  • South Korea joins other economies in East Asia - Japan, China and Taiwan - in the search for methane hydrates and the increasing research into its potential for commercial production. However, the more difficult challenge for methane hydrates is unlikely to be with its availability but with the technical difficulty and risks associated with the uncertainty of its geological impact.

  • An improved outlook for the Korean economy, particularly for the shipping sector, will translate into higher oil demand. As such, between 2013 and 2018, we expect oil consumption to recover from 2.25mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2013 to 2.36mn b/d in 2018. However, beyond this period our forecast is for South Korea's oil consumption to slowly trend downward as a result of growing fuel efficiency and a switch non-oil alternatives.

  • We do not expect further increases in South Korea's refining capacity beyond 2016, as poor refining margins from high crude oil prices and growing regional competition decrease the incentive for refining expansion. However, investments made to upgrade existing plants and the shifts in consumption patterns are likely to see a re-composition of products produced by South Korean plants

  • Gas consumption, on the other hand, is set to continue to rise. This will be supported by economic growth, and the growing use of gas in the following sectors: power, petrochemicals, residential heating and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: South Korea Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: South Korea Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: South Korea Oil Production And Net Crude Oil Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: South Korea Oil Production And Net Crude Oil Exports, 2018-2023
15
Refining And Oil Products Trade
18
Table: South Korea Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
18
Table: South Korea Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
19
Gas Supply And Demand
21
Table: South Korea Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports, 2012-2017
21
Table: South Korea Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
21
LNG
24
Table: Major Korean LNG Supply Deals
24
Revenues/Import Costs
25
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
South Korea - Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
South Korea Upstream Rating - Overview
27
South Korea Upstream Rating - Rewards
27
South Korea Upstream Rating - Risks
27
South Korea Downstream Rating - Overview
27
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
29
The Upstream Leaders
29
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
32
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Downstream Support
34
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Market Overview
40
South Korea Energy Market Overview
40
Role Of The State
40
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
41
Oil Refineries
41
Table: Refineries In South Korea
41
Service Stations
42
Oil Storage
43
LNG Terminals
44
Table: LNG Terminals In South Korea
44
Gas Storage
44
Gas Pipelines
45
Competitive Landscape
46
Competitive Landscape Summary
46
Table: Key Players - South Korean Oil And Gas Sector
47
Table: Key Upstream Players
47
Table: Key Downstream Players
47
Company Profile
48
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC)
48
Korea Gas (Kogas)
53
SK Innovation
57
Other Summaries
60
Regional Overview
63
Asia Overview
63
The World's Largest Oil Guzzler
63
Tightening In The Downstream
67
Gas Market Potential Set To Outshine Oil
71
A Hot Market For LNG
75
The Centre Of The LNG Price Debate
78
Global Industry Overview
80
Global Energy Market Overview
80
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
82
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
83
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
84
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
86
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
86
Appendix
89
Asia - Regional Appendix
89
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
94
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
95
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
96
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
96
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
97
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
98
South Korea - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
100
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
100
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
101
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
103
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
106
Glossary
108
Table: Glossary Of Terms
108
Methodology
110
Industry Forecast Methodology
110
Source
112
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
112
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
114
Table: Weighting
115

The South Korea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for South Korea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's South Korea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Korean oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for South Korea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Korean oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Korean oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc