Business Monitor International


South Korea Oil & Gas Report

Published 19 February 2014

  • 96 pages
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$1,295.00
South Korea Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: While there are efforts to stimulate upstream oil and gas activity, there is little to suggest that South Korea can develop significant resources, meaning the country is set to remain a key importer of crude and natural gas in liquefied form. T he government is planning initiatives aimed at reducing oil and LNG consumption , though a safety scandal in the nuclear industry is driving demand of LNG imports to provide short-term cover for lost power generation.

The main trends and developments we highlight for the South Korean oil and gas sector are:

  • The impact of the US's shale gas boom has been particularly felt by South Korea's petrochemical industry. This is one of the chief reasons for the government's push for greater Korean involvement in global shale gas developments, as it hopes that upstream asset control can allow for greater supply security and lower gas import prices.

  • Korea has also made considerable efforts to modernise and upgrade its refining sector. The focus has been on expanding production of high margin products such as paraxylene, to become more competitive in the regional and global downstream sector.

  • Scandals regarding bogus safety certificates in the nuclear sector have shut down three facilities while delayed a further three from being commissioned. The loss in power generation from nuclear is spurring higher demand for imports of LNG, with gas making up the difference. In 2013, LNG imports rose by 12.1%. In October 2013, the government announced that it would aim for 29% of power generation by 2030 to come from nuclear, versus a previous target of 41%.

  • Given that South Korea produces negligible volumes of gas, additional demand will have to be met with imports and in the form of LNG, due to the absence of infrastructure in the country to support pipeline imports. This will further increase the country's LNG imports.

  • There is considerable uncertainty with regard to import demand created from the scandal in the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Oil And Gas Reserves
9
Table: South Korea - Proven Oil & Gas Reserves & Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
9
Table: South Korea - Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
10
Oil Supply And Demand
11
Table: South Korea - Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
11
Table: South Korea - Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
12
Gas Supply And Demand
14
Table: South Korea - Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
14
Table: South Korea - Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
15
Table: Major Korean LNG Supply Deals
17
Refining And Oil Products Trade
19
Table: Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
19
Table: Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
19
Revenues/Import Costs
21
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
24
The Upstream Leaders
24
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
26
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Downstream Support
28
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Market Overview
33
South Korea Energy Market Overview
33
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
33
Oil Refineries
33
Table: Refineries In South Korea
34
Service Stations
34
Oil Storage
35
LNG Terminals
35
Table: LNG Terminals In South Korea
36
Gas Storage
36
Gas Pipelines
37
Competitive Landscape
38
Competitive Landscape Summary
38
Table: Key Players - South Korean Oil And Gas Sector
39
Table: Key Upstream Players
39
Table: Key Downstream Players
39
Company Profile
40
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC)
40
Korea Gas (Kogas)
45
SK Innovation
50
Other Summaries
53
Regional Overview
56
Asia Overview
56
Gas Is Hot
56
Locking Eyes On Gas Production
59
Australia's LNG Roadblocks Open Up New Opportunities Elsewhere
60
Asia Fights Against LNG Prices
62
Seeking An Unconventional Rescue
65
Coalbed Methane: Underrated Potential
68
Refining Woes
68
Global Industry Overview
72
Appendix
79
Asia - Regional Appendix
79
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
79
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
83
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
85
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
85
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
86
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
87
Glossary
88
Table: Glossary Of Terms
88
Methodology
90
Industry Forecast Methodology
90
Source
92
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
92
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
94
Table: Weighting
96

The South Korea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for South Korea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's South Korea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Korean oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for South Korea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Korean oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Korean oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc