Business Monitor International


South Korea Metals Report

Published 26 February 2014

  • 52 pages
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$1,295.00
South Korea Metals Report

South Korean metals consumption growth is set to moderate in 2014, as the country's exports of manufactured goods are hit by a global economic slowdown and an expected contraction in Europe. South Korea is a major producer of steel and slab zinc, but domestic mining output of ferrous and nonferrous metals is small and reliant on imports for the raw materials required by the metals industry. Domestically produced metals and metal products are fundamental to the country's industrial base, as well as trade.

South Korea has very small reserves of copper and the production level of both mined and refined copper is insufficient to meet domestic demand. The country has to rely on imports to supplement domestic production, and is the world's sixth largest importer of refined copper and the world's fifth largest importer of copper blisters and anodes, which are unrefined forms of copper.

The deep decline in infrastructure activity suggests the stimulus measures initiated by the government since 2009 are fast receding, with an impact on construction metal products, such as steel rebar and sections, aluminium panels and extruded products and copper pipes.

Moderating Growth
South Korea - Metal Consumption (% chg y-o-y)

Below-Consensus Views Bearish For Production

Our views on the Chinese economy are below consensus, and we foresee a significant impact on South Korea's export sectors, as China is South Korea's largest export market, with a 25% share of total exports. Inflationary pressure is mounting in the Chinese economy and we expect to further tightening measures, which would likely exacerbate weaknesses in the country's housing market. Given that the property sector has been the main engine of growth for the entire mainland economy, a correction would inevitably hurt Chinese demand for South Korean metal goods.

Two of South Korea's other sizeable export markets, Hong Kong (5.4% of total exports) and Taiwan (3.2%), are very dependent on the Chinese economy, meaning demand...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Steel: Steady Growth Outlook
10
Table: South Korea - Steel Production & Consumption, ('000 tonnes)
14
Table: South Korea - Steel Production And Trade, 2003-2011 ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
14
Copper: Reliance On Imports To Wane
15
Table: South Korea - Refined Copper Production And Consumption, 2009-2017 ('000 tonnes)
17
Zinc: Korea Zinc To Drive Growth
17
Table: South Korea - Refined Zinc Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes)
19
Regulatory Development
20
Table: South Korea - Political Overview
20
Commodities Forecast
22
Steel Price Forecast
22
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
22
Short-Term Outlook
22
Core View
22
Global Steel Glut To Persist
23
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
23
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
25
Excessive Chinese Exports
26
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
27
Risks To Price Outlook
27
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
28
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
28
Commodity Strategy
29
Aluminium: Continued Short-Term Weakness
33
Copper: Recent Strength Doesn't Change Our View
33
Nickel: Recent Strength To Subside
35
Zinc: Price Momentum To Continue
37
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
39
Competitive Landscape
40
International Sanctions
40
Recent Developments
41
Table: Selected Companies And Indexes - Financial Data
41
Company Profile
42
POSCO
42
Table: POSCO - Financial Results
46
Korea Zinc
48
Table: Korea Zinc - Financial Results
50
Methodology
52
Cross Checks
52

The South Korea Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in South Korea.

BMI's South Korea Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in South Korea.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for South Korea to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South Korea metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in South Korea through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc