Business Monitor International


South Korea Freight Transport Report

Published 02 October 2014

  • 97 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Korea Freight Transport Report

The Korean economy grew at a slower rate in Q214 due to a contraction in domestic consumption. While we expect the fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy to provide a temporary boost to growth, these measures will not take effect until Q414. We therefore maintain our real GDP growth forecast at 3.5% for 2014, and forecast that growth will be marginally stronger in 2015 at 4.1%.

Korea's economy grew more slowly in Q214 at 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) compared to 3.9% y-o-y in Q114, with slower domestic consumption growth acting as the largest drag. While exports provided some reprieve, weak domestic factors continue to exert downward pressures on headline growth figures. Contracting household consumption in the wake of the Sewol ferry disaster in April weighed heavily on headline figures, shrinking by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q214 (compared to growth of 0.2% q-o-q in the previous quarter).

Gross fixed capital formation also contracted sharply, falling from 3.2% q-o-q to -0.2% q-o-q, reversing the strong gains in the first quarter. In addition to weak domestic factors, we note that headwinds to external demand remain. With the effects of the recently-introduced government stimulus only likely to be felt in Q414, we believe that real GDP growth will come in at 3.5% in 2014, ahead of a moderately stronger performance of 4.1% in 2015.

The road freight sector is set to be the best performing by mode in 2014 with y-o-y growth of 5.00%. Rail and air freight will see slightly lower gains this year (3.04% and 2.24% respectively), while the Port of Busan will outperform domestic peer Incheon in tonnage throughput terms (4.40% compared to 1.70%).

Headline Industry Data 

  • 2014 air freight tonnage throughput forecast to increase by 2.24%.

  • 2014 rail freight tonnage throughput forecast to grow by 3.04%.

  • 2014 road freight tonnage throughput forecast to rise by 5.00%.

  • Total trade (imports plus exports) is set to grow by 4.30% in real terms in 2014.

  • The...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Road
15
Table: Road Freight (South Korea 2011-2018)
17
Rail
17
Table: Rail Freight (South Korea 2011-2018)
18
Maritime
18
Table: Maritime Freight (South Korea 2011-2018)
19
Air
20
Table: Air Freight (South Korea 2011-2018)
21
Trade
21
Table: Trade Overview (South Korea 2011-2018)
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators (South Korea 2011-2018)
22
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2012, USDmn
23
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012, USDmn
24
Market Overview
25
Industry Trends And Developments
32
Road
32
Rail
32
Maritime
32
Multimodal
34
Company Profile
35
Korean Air Cargo (KAL)
35
CJ Korea Express
40
Pan Ocean
42
Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM)
46
Hanjin Shipping
49
Political Outlook
56
Domestic Politics
56
Long-Term Political Outlook
59
Table: South Korea: Political Overview
62
Oil Price Outlook
64
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
64
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
64
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
66
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
70
Risks To Outlook
71
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
72
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
72
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
77
Risks To Outlook
78
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
79
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
79
Supply Keeps Market Down
79
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
81
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
82
Risks To Outlook
85
Macroeconomic Forecast
86
Economic Analysis
86
Developed Markets, Investment Spending To Support Growth
87
Outlook Not All Rosy
88
Table: Economic Activity (South Korea 2009-2018)
88
Demographic Forecast
89
Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
90
Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
91
Table: South Korea's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
92
Table: South Korea's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
92
Methodology
93
Industry Forecast Methodology
93
Sector-Specific Methodology
94
Sources
95

The South Korea Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s South Korea Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Korean freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on South Korea to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Korean freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc