Despite Pyongyang calling for the creation of an atmosphere of reconciliation and unity on the Korean peninsula, Seoul has recently acted to bolster its security and defences against the North. Indeed, attuned to the North's reputation of engaging in a cycle of concessions followed by provocations, the South's decision to bolster border security was perhaps wise in the present context. This increase in border security complements various long-term defence projects aimed at enhancing South Korea's security in the face of an increasingly unpredictable and volatile North Korea.
A significant portion of defence expenditure funds are expected to go towards upgrading South Korea's missile defence system. The Korea Air Missiles Defence system (KAMD), or so called 'kill chain project' will see Seoul move from its German made PAC-2 missile system to the PAC-3 system produced by American contractor Lockheed Martin. This project is expected to set the Ministry of National Defence (MND) back by approximately US$26.4bn over the next five years.
In another windfall for Lockheed Martin, the MND is also set to sign a deal for 40 F-35 Lightning fighter jets. According to Korea's Defence Acquisition Program Administration the deal, worth a reported US$6.8bn, will be signed sometime in Q314, with procurement set to begin in 2018. In a revised arrangement with the United States, 2014 will see Seoul paying US$866mn to maintain an enhanced US military presence in South Korea. This is a 5.4% rise from 2013 and is an arrangement that will continue for at least five years.
This revised deal, which will see an additional 800 troops and 40 M1A2 tanks sent to South Korea this year, comes as the US looks to bolster its presence in the region as part of President Obama's so-called 'pivot-to-Asia' strategy. For South Korea, the US presence provides security assurances not only against its unpredictable neighbour, North Korea, but also an increasingly aggressive and assertive China.
The South Korea Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's South Korea Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Korean defence and security industry.
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Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.
Political Risk Assessment
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Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
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Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Domestic Security Overview
The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.