Business Monitor International


South Korea Autos Report

Published 03 March 2014

  • 64 pages
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$1,295.00
South Korea Autos Report

Sales

According to the Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (KAMA), vehicle sales in 2013 contracted 1.9%, to 1,383,358 units. This was in line with our bearish outlook on the market, given that we too were forecasting sales to contract 1.2%, to 1.39mn units.

However, sales in January 2014 are enjoying an uptick, rising 2.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 107,510 units. This was the first positive growth in four months.

After contracting for the past two years, we forecast auto sales to grow 1.9% in 2014, to 1.41mn units. We expect the positive start to 2014 to continue in the near term as economic activity begins to show incipient signs of a pick-up.

Production

Auto production declined slightly in 2013, to 4,521,429 units, a decrease of 1.2%. This came in slightly above our forecast for 4.43mn units, due to the resilience in commercial vehicle (CV) production, which enjoyed a gain of 2.1%, to 398,825 units. However, vehicle production suffered a sharp collapse in January 2014, tumbling 10.3% y-o-y, to 368,243 units. We are not reading too much into January's print as this year's Lunar New Year holiday affected the total number of production days.

We forecast auto production to grow 1.9% in 2014, to 4.6mn units. Besides the small growth in domestic sales, the major factor supporting the growth in output is a more positive export story for 2014. In our opinion, the rise in vehicle demand globally, as well as further tariff cuts under the Korea-EU FTA, will see stronger external demand for Korean cars.

Imported Vehicle Sales To Remain Strong

Despite the domestic market remaining in the doldrums over the past few years, it has been our long-held view that the imported vehicle segment will remain a bright spot and be able to grow its market share at the expense of domestic brands. Indeed, imported vehicle sales have been growing since March 2012, with certain months enjoying high double-digit y-o-y growth.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Production, Sales And Trade
13
Table: South Korea Auto Sales, 2012-2018
16
Table: South Korea Auto Production, 2012-2018
16
Table: Trade, 2012-2018
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
20
Strong Downside Pressures in 2014
21
Expenditure Breakdown
23
Private Consumption
23
Government Consumption
23
Investment
23
Net Exports
23
Table: South Korea - Economic Activity
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: Asia Pacific Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Competitive Landscape
29
Table: Ranking Of World Tyre Manufacturers (2012 Sales)
32
Company Profile
35
Company Monitor
35
Hyundai Motor
38
Kia Motors
41
Ssangyong Motor
43
Renault Samsung Motors
44
Regional Overview
45
Table: Vehicle Sales 2013 (CBUS)
45
Global Industry Overview
50
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
50
Europe On Road To Recovery
50
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
52
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
54
Demographic Forecast
57
Demographic Outlook
57
Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
58
Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
59
Table: South Korea's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
60
Table: South Korea's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
60
Methodology
61
Industry Forecasts
61
Sector-Specific Methodology
62
Sources
62
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
63
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
64

The South Korea Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s South Korea Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in South Korea.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on South Korea to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Korean automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Korean automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc