Business Monitor International


South Korea Autos Report

Published 13 June 2014

  • 64 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Korea Autos Report

Sales

Domestic auto sales have remained resilient despite weakening consumer confidence, with the Korean Automotive Manufacturers Association (KAMA) announcing 1.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth for domestic vehicle sales in July, underpinned by new car models being released in the market. On a year-to-date basis, sales have come in at 840,914 units, representing 5.0% y-o-y growth.

Auto sales figures are largely in line with our expectations, and we maintain our forecast of 3.2% growth for 2014, based on a weaker H214. We are, however, raising our sales growth forecast for 2015 from 1.1% to 2.7%, on the back of an expected economic pick-up, with private consumption growth expected to come in at 5.0% in 2015, up from 3.4% in 2014. 

Strikes Fuel Long-Term Production Woes

On the production side, plant workers at Hyundai and Kia held their first strike of 2014 in August, demanding higher wages and improvements in working conditions. With similar strikes in previous years resulting in output declines of 16.1% y-o-y and 25.9% y-o-y in 2012 and 2013 respectively for the month of September  ( see 'New Labour Dispute Adds To Hyundai's Woes', April 23 2013), we foresee a short-term dip in production for September 2014, but maintain our full-year production growth forecast of 2.4%, hitting 4.6mn units.

Exports To Remain Resilient

In May, we highlighted that vehicle exports growth will remain resilient due to a recovery in Europe - boosted by tariff cuts, and rising demand in the US ( see 'Healthy Export Demand To Support Auto Production', May 14). This view has played out, with exports jumping 16.0% y-o-y in July due to a removal of the 2% tariff on Korean cars, with an engine capacity of 1.5 litres or more, being exported to the EU.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2012-2018)
15
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2012-2018)
16
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2012-2018)
16
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Downside Risks Rising From Corporate Korea
19
Table: South Korea - Economic Activity
20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
21
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
24
Competitive Landscape
25
Table: Ranking Of World Tyre Manufacturers (2012 Sales)
28
Company Profile
31
Company Monitor
31
Hyundai Motor
35
Kia Motors
38
Ssangyong Motor
40
Renault Samsung Motors
41
Regional Overview
42
Asia Regional Overview
42
Table: Vehicle Sales March 2014 (Cbus)
42
Global Industry Overview
47
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
47
European Growth Gathers Momentum
47
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
49
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
50
Demographic Forecast
53
Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
54
Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
55
Table: South Korea's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
56
Table: South Korea's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
56
Methodology
57
Industry Forecasts
57
Sector-Specific Methodology
58
Sources
58
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
59
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
60

The South Korea Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s South Korea Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in South Korea.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on South Korea to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Korean automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Korean automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc