Business Monitor International


South Korea Agribusiness Report

Published 07 March 2014

  • 96 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Korea Agribusiness Report

We hold a positive outlook towards the long term prospects of South Korea's agricultural sector. Our positive outlook towards the sector is based on the government's decision to gradually remove barriers to trade and move up the value chain. Indeed, the expansion of education and financial support for farmers to allow them entry into the food processing business, as well as plans to revitalise agriculture tourism, will yield results for the industry over the longer term and help it to remain relevant to the South Korean economy. Having said this, we are also concerned about the short term restructuring of the livestock industry due to a mismatch of domestic demand and supply of livestock. The most recent outbreak of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI, H5N8 type) also poses a significant threat to the production and consumption expectations for poultry meat.

Key Forecasts

  • Rice consumption growth to 2017/18: -10.1% to 4.1mn tonnes. As South Koreas substitute their carbohydrate intake with bread instead of rice, consumption of the grain is expected to fall in tandem with the changing diet.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2018: 25.9% to 10.6mn tonnes. This will be buoyed by strong and steady demand from the animal feed sector. In particular, the swine feed sector should be the main consumer of corn for feed processing.

  • Beef production growth to 2017/18: 14.3% to 384,000 tonnes. Even with the anticipated increase in local beef output, the country will remain reliant on imports to meet demand. Indeed, base effects are the key reason for the significant growth rate.

  • 2014 BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$34.6bn (up from US$34.6bn in 2013; forecast to decline annually by 1.3% on average to 2018)

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 3.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) (up from 2.1% in 2013; predicted to average 3.9% from 2013 until 2018).

  • 2014 consumer price index: 1.85% y-o-y (up from 1.2% in 2013; predicted to average 2.7% to 2018)

  • 2014 central bank policy rate: 2.75% (up...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Rice Outlook
12
Table: South Korea Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
13
Table: South Korea Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
14
Grains Outlook
15
Table: South Korea Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
16
Table: South Korea Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
16
Table: South Korea Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
17
Table: South Korea Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
17
Dairy Outlook
18
Table: South Korea Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
19
Table: South Korea Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
19
Table: South Korea Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
19
Table: South Korea Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
20
Table: South Korea Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
21
Table: South Korea Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
21
Table: South Korea Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
21
Table: South Korea Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
22
Livestock Outlook
23
Table: South Korea Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
24
Table: South Korea Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
24
Table: South Korea Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
24
Table: South Korea Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
26
Table: South Korea Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
26
Table: South Korea Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
26
Commodities Forecast
28
Monthly Grains Update
28
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
36
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
37
Monthly Softs Update
38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
46
Table: Bmi Commodities Strategy
46
Upstream Analysis
48
Asia Machinery Outlook
48
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
50
Asia GM Outlook
56
Table: Philippines Corn Estimates
60
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops, 2012
61
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
61
Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB, reported prices at the end of quarter)
64
Downstream Analysis
68
Food
68
Food Consumption
68
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
68
Canned Food
69
Table: Canned Food Volume/Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
69
Confectionery
70
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
70
Table: Sugar Confectionery Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
71
Meat
71
Table: Processed Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
71
Fish
72
Table: Preserved Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
72
Oils and Fats
73
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
73
Drink
76
Hot Drinks
76
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
76
Alcoholic Drinks
77
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
78
Soft Drinks
78
Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
79
Table: Carbonates Volume Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
79
Table: Bottled Water Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
80
Mass Grocery Retail
80
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Value, Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
82
Table: Retail Sales By Format
82
Regional Overview
83
Table: Select Companies - Palm Oil Landbank, 2012
87
Competitive Landscape
89
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
89
Demographic Forecast
90
Demographic Outlook
90
Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
91
Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
92
Table: South Korea's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
93
Table: South Korea's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
93
Methodology
94
Industry Forecast Methodology
94
Sector-Specific Methodology
95

The South Korea Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's South Korea Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in South Korea.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The South Korea Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc