Business Monitor International


South Korea Agribusiness Report

Published 03 June 2014

  • 96 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Korea Agribusiness Report

We are largely sanguine about the long term prospects of South Korea's agricultural sector. Our view is based on the government's decision to gradually remove barriers to trade and move up the value chain. Increased demand for exports of Korean foodstuff as efforts to globalize the Korean cuisine take fruit should boost domestic agriculture production. Indeed, the expansion of education and financial support for farmers to allow them entry into the food processing business, as well as plans to revitalise agriculture tourism, will yield results for the industry over the longer term and help it to remain relevant to the South Korean economy.

Key Forecasts

  • Corn consumption growth to 2018: 31.8 % to 10.6mn tonnes. This will be buoyed by strong and steady demand from the animal feed sector. In particular, the swine feed sector should be the main consumer of corn for feed processing.

  • Beef production growth to 2017/18: 21.6 % to 384,000 tonnes. Even with the anticipated increase in local beef output, the country will remain reliant on imports to meet demand. Indeed, base effects are the key reason for the significant growth rate.

  • Milk consumption growth to 2017/18: 2.9% to 1.5mn tonnes. Korea's low birth rate will contribute to weak demand for milk powder as the use of baby formula drops. However, the sector will be helped by local marketing campaigns intended to raise consumption.

  • 2014 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD34.6bn (up from USD34.6bn in 2013; forecast to decline annually by 1.3% on average to 2018)

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 3.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) (up from 2.8% in 2013; predicted to average 3.9% from 2013 until 2018).

  • 2014 consumer price index: 1.85% y-o-y (up from 1.3% in 2013; predicted to average 2.4% to 2018)

  • 2014 central bank policy rate: 2.5% (same as 2013; predicted to average 3.2% from 2013 until 2018).

Key Developments

The Rural Development Authority of Korea and the International Rice Research Institute have signed a new rice...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
7
South Korea Agriculture SWOT
7
South Korea Business Environment SWOT
8
Supply & Demand Analysis
9
South Korea Rice Outlook
9
Table: South Korea Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
10
Table: South Korea Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
13
South Korea Grains Outlook
14
Table: South Korea Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
15
Table: South Korea Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
15
Table: South Korea Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
19
Table: South Korea Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
20
South Korea Dairy Outlook
20
Table: South Korea Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
21
Table: South Korea Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
22
Table: South Korea Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
22
Table: South Korea Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
22
Table: South Korea Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Table: South Korea Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Table: South Korea Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
24
Table: South Korea Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
24
South Korea Livestock Outlook
25
Table: South Korea Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
26
Table: South Korea Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
26
Table: South Korea Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
26
Table: South Korea Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
28
Table: South Korea Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
28
Table: South Korea Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
28
Commodity Price Analysis
30
Monthly Softs Update
30
Cocoa: Short-Term Tightness
30
Cotton: The Only Way Is Up-
32
Palm Oil: Reached A Bottom
34
Sugar: Against Support
36
Coffee: Double Bottom Forming-
38
Table: Select Commodities Performance & Forecasts
39
Monthly Grains Update
40
Soybean: Struggles To Continue
40
Corn: Still In Surplus
42
Wheat: Not Toast Yet
44
Rice: Range Bound
47
Table: Select Commodities Performance & Forecasts
48
Upstream Analysis
49
Asia Machinery Outlook
49
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
53
Asia GM Outlook
57
Table: Select Countries Growing GM Crops
60
Downstream Analysis
61
Food
61
Food Consumption
61
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
61
Canned Food
62
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
62
Confectionery
63
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
64
Table: Sugar Confectionery, 2011-2016
64
Processed Meat
65
Table: Processed Meat, 2009-2016
65
Preserved Fish
66
Table: Preserved Fish, 2009-2016
66
Oils & Fats
66
Table: Oils & Fats, 2009-2016
66
Dairy
69
Table: Dairy, 2009-2016
69
Trade
70
Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
71
Drink
72
Hot Drinks
72
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
72
Alcoholic Drinks
73
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
73
Table: Beer, 2009-2016
74
Soft Drinks
74
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
75
Table: Carbonates, 2009-2016
75
Table: Bottled Water, 2009-2016
76
Mass Grocery Retail
77
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales Value by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
78
Table: Retail Sales By Format, 2012-2021
79
Country Snapshot
80
Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
81
Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
82
Table: South Korea's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
83
Table: South Korea's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
83
BMI Forecast Modelling
84
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
84

The South Korea Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's South Korea Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in South Korea.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The South Korea Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc