Business Monitor International


South East Asia Mining Report

Published 12 May 2014

  • 103 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Free related articles sent monthly
 
$1,295.00
South East Asia Mining Report

BMI View: The cooling of the Chinese economy will remove the shine off mining investment in South East Asia . Frontier regions will be the first places where miners pull back their investment as brownfield projects take precedence . Nonetheless, it is certainly not all gloomy in the mining sector. Resilient demand from the power sector will continue to support growth in coal production, while the positive development of the nuclear sector in South Korea fuels uranium mining production.

Despite the rich deposits of untapped minerals on offer, we believe South East Asia's mining sector will struggle to uncover its potential over the coming years. The cooling of Chinese economic growth will remove a crucial pillar of support for mineral prices, particularly industrial metals such as iron ore and copper. For instance, we forecast iron ore prices to average USD101/tonne between 2014 and 2018, significantly lower than the average price of USD135/tonne in 2013. The outlook for gold mining is similarly precarious. We believe the bull run in gold prices is over and expect prices to average USD1,170/oz between 2014 and 2018. This represents a 30% fall in prices compared with the average price of USD1,669/oz in 2012.

Less Shiny
Select Prices - Iron Ore (USD/tonne) & Gold (USD/oz)

We expect miners across the board to come under pressure from the squeeze in profit margins and rising demand for shareholders' returns. Crucially, frontier regions will be the first places where miners pull back their investment as brownfield projects take precedence. Many frontier markets in South East Asia are beset by a spate of challenges. These include the lack of infrastructure support, poor power supply, immature regulatory framework to the periodic bouts of political unrest in countries such as Thailand and Cambodia.

Hit By China Slowdown
Select Countries - Mining Industry Value, USDbn (% chg y-o-y)

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
11
Cambodia: Mining Potential To Remain In The Ground
11
Table: Cambodia - Select Minerals Production ('000 metric tonnes)
11
Laos: Tough Digging With Fading Boom
13
Table: Laos - Copper & Gold Mine Production Forecasts
18
Myanmar: Resource Boom To Remain Elusive
18
Table: Myanmar - Select Mining Projects
20
Table: Myanmar - Mining Production Forecasts
23
South Korea: Uranium Production On The Horizon
23
Thailand: Struggles Ahead, Except Coal
25
Table: Thailand - Mining Production Forecasts
32
Vietnam: Coal Most Resilient Amidst Fading Boom
33
Table: Table: Vietnam - Mining Production Forecasts
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
43
Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Rewards
44
Industry Rewards
44
Country Rewards
44
Risks
44
Industry Risks
44
Country Risks
44
Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Rewards
45
Industry Rewards
45
Country Rewards
45
Risks
46
Industry Risks
46
Country Risks
46
Table: Myanmar - Mining Production Forecasts
47
Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Rewards
47
Industry Rewards
47
Country Rewards
47
Risks
48
Industry Risks
48
Country Risks
48
Risk/Reward Ratings
48
Rewards
48
Industry Rewards
48
Country Rewards
48
Risks
49
Industry Risks
49
Country Risks
49
Table: Thailand - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts
50
Risk/Reward Ratings
50
Rewards
50
Industry Rewards
50
Country Rewards
51
Risks
51
Industry Risks
51
Country Risks
52
Table: Vietnam - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts
52
Regulatory Development
53
Table: Asia - Mining Regulatory Scorecard
54
Commodities Forecast
56
Commodity Strategy
56
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
56
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
58
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
59
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
60
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
61
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
62
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
64
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
66
Competitive Landscape
67
Key Players
67
Table: Select Mining Companies In South East Asia - Key Financial Data
68
Company Profile
69
Banpu Public Company Ltd
69
Table: Banpu - Key Financial Data
71
Lanna Resources Public Company
73
Table: Lanna Resources - Key Financial Data
75
Regional Overview
77
Asia - Q3 2014
77
Challenges
77
Opportunities
80
Global Industry Overview
85
Challenges
85
Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals
89
Cause For Optimism
92
Methodology
99
Industry Forecast Methodology
99
Sources
100
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
101
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
103

The South East Asia Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's South East Asia Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Thailand, South Korea, Myanmar, Vietnam.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Thailand, South Korea, Myanmar, Vietnam to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Thailand, South Korea, Myanmar, Vietnam's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand, South Korea, Myanmar, Vietnam.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc