BMI View: The arrival of MrP Mobile and the possible entry of more MVNOs will impact on overall competition dynamics in the mobile market. The increasing fragmentation of the mobile sector amid market saturation (penetration rate reached 151% in H114) will intensify price competition in the basic voice and data markets and, consequently, increase the downward pressure on operators' ARPUs. This scenario is in line with BMI's view that operators must move quickly to develop new revenue streams to offset the impact of declining voice revenue growth.
The mobile market grew by 4% q-o-q in Q212 to bring total growth in H114 to 8.1%.
Market average ARPU declined by 13.6% in H114 to its lowest level ever following the the implementation of lower interconnection rates in April 2014.
The fixed-line incumbent operator, Telkom SA, reported a 4.8% y-o-y decline in fixed telephony subscriptions in the 12 months to March 2014, offsetting positive growth recorded by alternative operators.
Total ADSL subscriptions grew by 6.5% in the year to March 2014.
South Africa moved up one place into 4 th position in this quarter's update to BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings for Sub-Saharan Africa, although its aggregate score was unchanged at 52. South Africa remains one of the region's most developed markets and operators boast a healthier subscriber mix than much of the rest of the region, keeping its scores above the regional average. However, its more mature mobile market means that growth prospects are slower than many of its neighbours and we expect operators to diversify their revenue streams in order to sustain revenue growth.
Key Trends & Developments
MrP Mobile launched commercial operations in July 2014 over the network of mobile operator Cell C, using technology from mobile virtual network enabler (MVNE) MVN-X, a subsidiary of Durban-based Ignition Group. The service is backed by JSE-listed fashion retailer Mr Price, which in the last...
The South Africa Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of South Africa's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's South Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in South Africa.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.