Business Monitor International


South Africa Renewables Report

Published 03 October 2014

  • 42 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Africa Renewables Report

BMI View:   We have long-held a positive outlook towards the South African renewables industry and have highlighted the market as one of our 'global renewables brightspots' on account of the growth potential and inv estment opportunities on offer. The country's solid renewables regulatory framework has attracted significant foreign investor interest and the industry is set to expand rapidly over the coming years. However, uncertainty in its business environment and economic outlook dampens the overall score.

We have been following the South African Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Programme (REIPPP) since inception in 2011, highlighting that the programme has gone from strength to strength. Investor interest has been notably high amongst European companies - such as Mainstream Renewable Power, Total, Enel Green Power, EDF and Vestas - who are looking for attractive alternatives to their flat domestic markets.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Chinese solar manufacturer JinkoSolar opened a solar module production factory in Cape Town in August 2014, with an annual manufacturing capacity of 120MW and an investment of USD7.5mn by the company.

  • It was announced in August 2014 that the European Investment Bank (EIB) signed a USD102.06mn contract with state-owned Eskom to fund a 100MW solar power (CSP) plant near Upington, which is being co-financed by the African Development Bank, the World Bank, Agence Française de Développement, the Clean Technology Fund and German development bank KfW.

  • It was announced in August 2014 that the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) has approved the regulatory clearing account (RCA) for state utility Eskom. This could effectively result in tariff increases of up to 9% for 2015/2016, on top of the additional 8% upward tariff adjustment previously granted by Nersa in November 2013 for the 2014/2015 time period.

  • The 138MW Jeffrey's Bay wind farm, built by a consortium led by the UK-based company

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
7
Industry Forecast
9
South Africa Renewables Forecast Scenario
9
Table: South Africa's Total Electricity Generation, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
9
Table: South Africa's Total Electricity Generation, Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
10
Table: South Africa's Electricity Generating Capacity, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
12
Table: South Africa's Electricity Generating Capacity, Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
13
Table: REIPPP Capacity Target, 2016
15
South Africa Renewables Projects Database
23
Table: Renewable Projects - South Africa
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
South Africa Renewables Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Rewards
27
Risks
28
Market Overview
30
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure
30
Targets (Renewables And Emissions)
30
Subsidies
30
Infrastructure
31
Competitive Landscape
33
Eskom
33
Vestas
34
-lectricit- de France
34
Tata Power
34
Glossary
36
Table: Glossary Of Terms
36
Methodology
37
Methodology And Sources
37
Industry Forecast Methodology
37
Sources
39
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
39
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
41
Table: Weighting Indicators
43

The South Africa Renewables Report researched at source contains Business Monitor International (BMI)'s assessment of the current renewables market in South Africa. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).

The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in South Africa, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.

The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in South Africa, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.

BMI's South Africa Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South Africa renewables industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South Africa renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in South Africa, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.

These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.

Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.

These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc