Business Monitor International


South Africa Renewables Report

Published 01 April 2014

  • 42 pages
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$1,295.00
South Africa Renewables Report

BMI View: The outlook for the South African renewables industry is positive, particularly compared with the conventional power sector. A number of projects have gone online over the last three months, including the 66MW Hopefield wind farm in South Africa's Western Cape and the 50MW solar power project in the De Aar municipality. Furthermore, we have repeatedly commented on the interest the South African renewables market has generated among international renewable energy developers, something that has been absent in the conventional sector. Although the momentum behind the renewables industry is undoubtedly a positive for the country, without base-load conventional capacity in place, energy insecurity is likely to be a recurring problem.

The government's intentions to pursue renewable energy are undoubtedly strong, emphasised by the ambitious REIPPP regulatory framework, adopted in 2011. Private investment continues to be channelled into the sector and international financial institutions are supporting expansion plans.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In February 2014, South Africa-based Umoya Energy's 66MW Hopefield wind farm, in South Africa's Western Cape, started operating commercially. The construction of the project began in late 2012. The project was built with the support of CONCO and Power Westland, with Vestas Southern Africa supplying turbines for the facility. Further, in December 2013, a US$1.25bn 50MW solar power project in De Aar began supplying electricity to the power grid in South Africa's De Aar municipality.

  • Nedbank Capital, a division of South African Nedbank, said in November 2013 it will provide a ZAR6.8bn debt funding for seven debt-funded projects worth ZAR26.2bn in South Africa. The projects, which are part of the third REIPPP auction, include two concentrated solar, two solar photovoltaic, two wind power projects and a landfill gas project.

  • Eskom imposed rolling blackouts on March 6 2013, as according to the company, heavy...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
7
Industry Forecast
9
South Africa Renewables Forecast Scenario
9
Table: South Africa's Total Electricity Generation, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
9
Table: South Africa's Total Electricity Generation, Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
10
Table: South Africa's Electricity Generating Capacity, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
12
Table: South Africa's Electricity Generating Capacity, Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
13
Table: REIPPP Capacity Target, 2016
15
South Africa Renewables Projects Database
25
Table: Renewable Projects - South Africa
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
South Africa Renewables Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Rewards
29
Risks
30
Market Overview
31
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure
31
Targets (Renewables And Emissions)
31
Subsidies
32
Infrastructure
32
Competitive Landscape
34
Vestas
34
-lectricit- de France
35
Tata Power
35
Glossary
36
Table: Glossary Of Terms
36
Methodology
37
Methodology And Sources
37
Industry Forecast Methodology
37
Sources
39
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
39
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
41
Table: Weighting Indicators
43

The South Africa Renewables Report researched at source contains Business Monitor International (BMI)'s assessment of the current renewables market in South Africa. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2017 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).

The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in South Africa, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.

The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in South Africa, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.

BMI's South Africa Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South Africa renewables industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South Africa renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in South Africa, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.

These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.

Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.

These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Renewables Business Environment Ratings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Ratings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc