Business Monitor International


South Africa Renewables Report

Published 03 October 2014

  • 42 pages
 
$1,295.00
South Africa Renewables Report

BMI View:   We have long-held a positive outlook towards the South African renewables industry and have highlighted the market as one of our 'global renewables brightspots' on account of the growth potential and inv estment opportunities on offer. The country's solid renewables regulatory framework has attracted significant foreign investor interest and the industry is set to expand rapidly over the coming years. However, uncertainty in its business environment and economic outlook dampens the overall score.

We have been following the South African Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Programme (REIPPP) since inception in 2011, highlighting that the programme has gone from strength to strength. Investor interest has been notably high amongst European companies - such as Mainstream Renewable Power, Total, Enel Green Power, EDF and Vestas - who are looking for attractive alternatives to their flat domestic markets.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Chinese solar manufacturer JinkoSolar opened a solar module production factory in Cape Town in August 2014, with an annual manufacturing capacity of 120MW and an investment of USD7.5mn by the company.

  • It was announced in August 2014 that the European Investment Bank (EIB) signed a USD102.06mn contract with state-owned Eskom to fund a 100MW solar power (CSP) plant near Upington, which is being co-financed by the African Development Bank, the World Bank, Agence Française de Développement, the Clean Technology Fund and German development bank KfW.

  • It was announced in August 2014 that the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) has approved the regulatory clearing account (RCA) for state utility Eskom. This could effectively result in tariff increases of up to 9% for 2015/2016, on top of the additional 8% upward tariff adjustment previously granted by Nersa in November 2013 for the 2014/2015 time period.

  • The 138MW Jeffrey's Bay wind farm, built by a consortium led by the UK-based company

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
6
Industry Forecast
8
South Africa Renewables Forecast Scenario
8
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Generation Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011 - 2016
8
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2017 - 2022
9
Table: South Africa Electricity Generating Capacity, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011 - 2016
10
Table: South Africa Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2017 - 2022
11
Table: REIPP Capacity Target- 2016
12
South Africa Renewables Projects Database
17
Table: Renewables Projects - South Africa
17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
20
South Africa Renewables Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Rewards
20
Risks
21
Market Overview
22
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure
22
Targets (Renewables and Emissions)
22
Subsidies
23
Infrastructure
24
Competitive Landscape
25
Vestas
25
-lectricit- de France
25
Tata Power
26
Glossary
27
Table: Glossary of Terms
27
Methodology
28
Methodology and Sources
28
Industry Forecasts
28
Renewables Industry - Data Methodology
29
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
30
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
32
Sources
33

The South Africa Renewables Report researched at source contains Business Monitor International (BMI)'s assessment of the current renewables market in South Africa. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2017 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).

The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in South Africa, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.

The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in South Africa, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.

BMI's South Africa Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South Africa renewables industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South Africa renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in South Africa, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.

These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.

Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.

These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Renewables Business Environment Ratings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Ratings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.

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