Business Monitor International


South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 15 April 2014

  • 126 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: South Africa is the best investment opportunity for multinational drugmakers seeking to enter the African market - boasting the largest medicines market on the continent and po i sed for high single-digit growth over the next decade. This quarter highlighted issues surrounding intellectual property protection, in which the Innovative Pharmaceutical Association SA (IPASA) was implicated in the leakage of draft response campaigning against proposed changes to South Africa's intellectual property, and the impact of local currency depreciation - positive for local drugmakers export revenues but negatively impacting production costs and profits under the current pricing system.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: ZAR34.01bn (USD3.52bn) in 2013 to ZAR37.53bn (USD3.51bn) in 2014; +10.3% in local currency terms and -0.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q114.

  • Healthcare: ZAR302.34bn (USD31.33bn) in 2013 to ZAR328.17bn (USD30.67n) in 2014; +8.5% in local currency terms and -2.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q114.

Risk/Reward Rating

Despite the country's low risk profile being more favourable than its rewards profile, South Africa has strong longer-term commercial potential because of its sizeable population and economic development. South Africa is one of the most promising markets in the entire MEA region. In Q214, South Africa's score has improved to 57 out of 100, having moved up two places in the matrix from fifth to third.

Key Trends And Developments

March 2014

Aspen Pharmacare reported strong growth in revenues and profits for the six-month period ending December 2013, as it began to recognise revenues and earnings from newly acquired divisions. The weakening of the South African rand spurred growth both in the Asia Pacific region and internationally. Brand recognition gained from the newly acquired product portfolios of Nestle, MSD and GSK helped to stabilise margins as domestic performance...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Zambia Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Zambia Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
20
Table: Zambia Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
20
Table: Zambia Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
21
Macroeconomic Forecasts
22
Table: Zambia - Economic Activity
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Zambia Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Rewards
34
Risks
34
Market Overview
36
Industry Trends And Developments
39
Epidemiology
39
Healthcare Sector
40
Regulatory Development
47
Demographic Forecast
52
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
53
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
54
Table: Zambia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
55
Table: Zambia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
55
Glossary
56
Methodology
58
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
58
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
58
Notes On Methodology
59
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
60
Ratings Overview
61
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
61
Indicator Weightings
62

The South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc