Business Monitor International


South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 15 April 2014

  • 126 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: South Africa is the best investment opportunity for multinational drugmakers seeking to enter the African market - boasting the largest medicines market on the continent and po i sed for high single-digit growth over the next decade.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: ZAR34.01bn (USD3.52bn) in 2013 to ZAR37.53bn (USD3.51bn) in 2014; +10.3% in local currency terms and -0.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q114.

  • Healthcare: ZAR301.49bn (USD31.24bn) in 2013 to ZAR327.69bn (USD30.62n) in 2014; +8.7% in local currency terms and -2.0% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

Despite the country's low risk profile being more favourable than its rewards profile, South Africa has strong longer-term commercial potential because of its sizeable population and economic development. South Africa is one of the most promising markets in the entire MEA region. In Q314, South Africa's score has dropped from 57 to 55.6out of 100, falling from third to fourth position in our regional tables. 

Key Trends And Developments

June 2014

The Free State's hospital system is on the verge of collapse, with many hospitals turning away patients, salaries reported unpaid and stocks of medicines running low. As on June, the Free State's Bloemfontein medicine depot had run out of more than 200 essential drugs, including six different anti-retrovirals. Also in June, health workers and experts called on the Minister Of Health to declare a national health crisis after drug-resistant tuberculosis incidence rates rose significantly.

March 2014

Aspen Pharmacare reported strong growth in revenues and profits for the six-month period ending December 2013, as it began to recognise revenues and earnings from newly acquired divisions. The weakening of the South African rand spurred growth both in the Asia Pacific region and internationally. Brand recognition gained from the newly acquired product portfolios of Nestle, MSD and GSK helped to stabilise...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2010-2018)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2010-2018)
17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2010-2018)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2010-2018)
19
Patented Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2010-2018)
21
South Africa
21
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2010-2018)
23
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
23
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2010-2018)
25
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
25
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2018)
26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (South Africa 2012-2018)
27
Other Healthcare Data
28
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: Real GDP Growth, % chg q-o-q, SAAR
31
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Middle East & Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
37
South Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Rewards
45
Risks
46
Market Overview
47
Industry Trends And Developments
48
Epidemiology
48
Healthcare Sector
52
Public Healthcare Sector
52
Private Healthcare Sector
54
National Health Reference Price List
59
Healthcare Infrastructure
59
Research & Development Sector
60
Clinical Trials
61
Vaccines
62
Traditional African Medicine
63
Telemedicine
64
Regulatory Development
65
Table: Drug Classification System
65
Regulatory Developments
68
Intellectual Property Environment
69
Pricing Regime
71
Table: Tiered Pharmaceutical Pricing System Is Better Than A Flat Fixed Mark-Up
72
Table: SEP Inflation, 2008-2011
73
Reimbursement Regime
73
Competitive Landscape
75
Pharmaceutical Pricing
79
Company Profile
83
Aspen Pharmacare
83
Adcock Ingram
89
Cipla Medpro
93
Ranbaxy
96
Sanofi
98
Pfizer
101
Roche
104
GlaxoSmithKline
107
Merck & Co
111
Novartis
113
Demographic Forecast
115
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
116
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
117
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
118
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
118
Glossary
119
Methodology
121
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
121
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
121
Notes On Methodology
122
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
123
Ratings Overview
124
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
124
Indicator Weightings
125

The South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc