Business Monitor International


South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 15 April 2014

  • 126 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: South Africa is the best investment opportunity for multinational drugmakers seeking to enter the African market - boasting the largest medicines market on the continent and po i sed for high single-digit growth over the next decade.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: ZAR34.01bn (USD3.52bn) in 2013 to ZAR37.53bn (USD3.51bn) in 2014; +10.3% in local currency terms and -0.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q114.

  • Healthcare: ZAR301.49bn (USD31.24bn) in 2013 to ZAR327.69bn (USD30.62n) in 2014; +8.7% in local currency terms and -2.0% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

Despite the country's low risk profile being more favourable than its rewards profile, South Africa has strong longer-term commercial potential because of its sizeable population and economic development. South Africa is one of the most promising markets in the entire MEA region. In Q314, South Africa's score has dropped from 57 to 55.6out of 100, falling from third to fourth position in our regional tables. 

Key Trends And Developments

June 2014

The Free State's hospital system is on the verge of collapse, with many hospitals turning away patients, salaries reported unpaid and stocks of medicines running low. As on June, the Free State's Bloemfontein medicine depot had run out of more than 200 essential drugs, including six different anti-retrovirals. Also in June, health workers and experts called on the Minister Of Health to declare a national health crisis after drug-resistant tuberculosis incidence rates rose significantly.

March 2014

Aspen Pharmacare reported strong growth in revenues and profits for the six-month period ending December 2013, as it began to recognise revenues and earnings from newly acquired divisions. The weakening of the South African rand spurred growth both in the Asia Pacific region and internationally. Brand recognition gained from the newly acquired product portfolios of Nestle, MSD and GSK helped to stabilise...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: South Africa Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: South Africa Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
17
Table: South Africa Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
18
Table: South Africa Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: South Africa Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: South Africa Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
21
Generic Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: South Africa Generic Drugs Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
24
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: South Africa Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
26
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
27
Table: South Africa Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
28
Table: South Africa Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (ZARmn)
28
Other Healthcare Data
29
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: South Africa - Real GDP Growth
31
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Table: Middle East And Africa Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q213
37
Rewards
39
Risks
39
Market Overview
41
Industry Trends And Developments
43
Epidemiology
43
Healthcare Sector
47
National Health Insurance Scheme
48
Public Healthcare Reform
49
Private Healthcare Regulation
51
National Health Reference Price List
53
Government Health Insurance
53
Healthcare Infrastructure
54
Table: Public Sector Hospitals By Province 2004-2011
55
Table: Private Hospitals By Province 2004-2010
55
Table: Public Sector Hospital Beds By Province, 2005-2009
56
Table: Private Sector Hospital Beds By Province, 1998-2010
57
Research & Development Sector
57
Clinical Trials
60
Vaccines
61
Traditional African Medicine
61
Regulatory Development
63
Regulatory Regime
63
Table: Drug Classification System
63
Regulatory Developments
66
Intellectual Property Environment
66
Pricing Regime
67
Table: Tiered Pharmaceutical Pricing System Is Better Than A Flat Fixed Mark-Up
68
Table: SEP Inflation, 2008-2011
69
Reimbursement Regime
70
Competitive Landscape
72
Pharmaceutical Sector
72
Pharmaceutical Sector Developments
74
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
77
Company Profile
81
Aspen Pharmacare
81
Adcock Ingram
86
Cipla Medpro
89
Ranbaxy
92
Sanofi
95
Pfizer
98
Roche
100
GlaxoSmithKline
102
Merck & Co
106
Novartis
108
Demographic Forecast
110
Demographic Outlook
110
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
111
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
112
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
113
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
113
Glossary
114
Methodology
116
Methodology
116
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
116
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
116
Notes On Methodology
117
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
118
Ratings Overview
119
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
119
Indicator Weightings
120

The South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc