Business Monitor International


South Africa Mining Report

Published 15 July 2014

  • 98 pages
 
$1,295.00
South Africa Mining Report

BMI View: The past decade of minimal growth in South Africa's mining sector is set to continue as the country's gold and platinum sectors face diminishing margins and industrial strife. Potential for growth in the iron ore and coal sectors constitute bright spots for the mining industry in the long term. We expect South Africa's mining industry value to grow by an annual average rate of 0.8% between 2014 and 2018, from USD32. 4 bn in 2013 to USD33. 5 bn in 2018.

South Africa's share of global mined output is set to decline as other mining jurisdictions experience faster rates of growth. We expect investment, particularly in gold mining, to be more attracted to low-cost, high resource opportunities in the rest of the continent such as the Democratic Republic of Congo.

South Africa's mining sector is amenable to investment, with few obstacles confronting foreign companies wishing to enter. The government is generally stable and South Africa's business environment is one of the best on the continent.

In Q114, Parliament's ratification of the long-awaited amendments to the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act turned out to be a net positive for the mining sector. Although the new law will allow the government greater powers in the mining sector and will bolster South Africa's beneficiation drive, the removal of uncertainty around these issues was a crucial undertaking. Mining companies responded positively, grateful for their consultation in the decision-making process. Moreover, the changes which were finally implemented had been greatly modified from original proposals.

A carbon tax, which had initially been proposed for implementation in 2015, has now been pushed back to 2016 at the earliest. This development provides welcome news for coal miners in the country.

Modest Growth Ahead
South Africa: Select Minerals, Growth Forecast, % chg y-o-y

Industrial unrest will continue to be a major challenge. The precedent set by Lonmin offering a 22% pay rise...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Iron Ore
10
Table: Table: South Africa - Major Iron Ore Projects
12
Risks Lurking In The Horizon
13
Table: Table: South Africa - Iron Ore Production
13
Gold
13
Table: Table: South Africa - Major Expansion Projects
16
Potential Upside-
16
Table: Table: South Africa - Gold Production
16
Diamonds
17
Table: South Africa - Largest Diamond Projects
19
Zimbabwe Could Revolutionise Sector
19
Table: Table: South Africa - Diamond Production Forecast
19
Platinum
19
Table: Table: South Africa - Largest Platinum Expansion Plans
21
Table: Table: South Africa - Platinum Production
22
Palladium
23
Table: South Africa - Largest Development Projects
24
Table: South Africa - Palladium Production
25
Coal
26
Table: Table: South Africa - Major Expansion Projects
27
South Africa Playing Its Part In Regional Boom
27
Table: Table: South Africa - Coal Production
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Table: Africa - Recent Government Intervention
29
Elevated Prices Increase Rewards, But Political Risks Lurk
29
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings
30
Zambia: Investment To Continue Despite Higher Taxes
32
Market Overview
36
Global Share To Decline
37
Table: Table: South Africa - Main Expansion Plans
38
Table: Table: South Africa - Mining Industry Value And Production
38
Regulatory Development
40
Commodities Forecast
42
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
51
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy Table
52
Competitive Landscape
53
Table: Table: Select Companies - Financial Data
54
Company Profile
55
Impala Platinum
55
Table: Impala Platinum - Key Financial Data
58
AngloGold Ashanti
60
Overview
61
Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data
63
Anglo American
65
Table: Anglo American - Key Financial Data
69
Regional Overview
70
1
70
2
71
Table: Table: Recent Government Intervention
71
3
72
4
73
5
74
Global Industry Overview
75
Global Mining Outlook
75
1
75
Table: Recent Tax Increases
75
2
76
3
77
4
78
5
79
6
81
7
81
Methodology
83
Business Environment Ratings Methodology
83

The South Africa Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's South Africa Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in South Africa.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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