Business Monitor International


South Africa Metals Report

Published 30 October 2014

  • 55 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Africa Metals Report

BMI View:   Subdued refined metal prices ,   elevated energy costs , and continued labour unrest will lead to only modest growth in South Africa's metals industry . Nevertheless, positive consumption trends will persist, supported by multi-year growth from the auto, construction, and infrastructure sector s .

We expect just modest consumption growth of refined metals in South Africa in the coming years on the back of our forecast for the country's economic growth to lag those of its peers over the next decade. Still, the automotive, infrastructure, and construction industries will support demand for steel, aluminium, and nickel.

On the production side, we see further scope for output disruptions due to consistent labour unrest in the mining sector and long-term structural problems such as high electricity prices. Furthermore, a national carbon tax, which was recently delayed but now set to go into effect in 2016, will also be detrimental to investment in productive capacity. Although concessions will potentially be implemented for energy-intensive industries such as steel production, the tax will further weigh on a deteriorating environment for metals production in South Africa.

No Return To Peak
South Africa - Crude Steel Production

Due to production weakness across the metals landscape, we expect increased imports in the coming quarters, as investment in South African production facilities will be held back by the glut of metals, particularly steel, on the world market.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: Consumption Fundamentals Stronger Than Production
11
Modest Production Outlook
12
Table: South Africa - Major Steel Plants
13
Consumption Fundamentals Stronger Than Production
15
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (South Africa 2010-2018)
17
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (South Africa 2005-2012)
18
Aluminium: Production To Decline Despite Consumption Growth
19
Automotive & Infrastructure Sectors To Support Consumption
19
Production Hampered By Operational Issues
19
Upstream Constraints May Pose Challenge
20
Export Declines Ahead
21
Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (South Africa 2010-2018)
22
Nickel: Fortunes Rise And Fall With Platinum Industry
22
Automotive Sector To Underpin Nickel Consumption
23
Production Hampered By Operational Difficulties
23
Table: Refined Nickel Production & Consumption (South Africa 2010-2018)
24
Regulatory Development
25
Carbon Tax Delayed To 2016
25
Labour Unrest To Continue
25
Tax Regime
26
Table: South Africa - Political Overview
27
Commodities Forecast
29
Commodity Strategy
29
Ferrous Metals
29
Non-Ferrous Metals:
32
Aluminium: Price Headwinds To Persist Despite Market Tightness
32
Copper: Bounce To Prove Temporary
33
Nickel: Multiple Price Headwinds To Persist
35
Zinc: No Sustained Gains
38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
40
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016
40
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
40
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
40
Long-Term Outlook
41
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite
42
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon
43
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last
44
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery
45
Risks To Price Forecast
45
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
46
Competitive Landscape
47
Table: South Africa - Major Steel Production Facilities
47
Table: South Africa - Select Listed Metals Producers
48
Company Profile
50
ArcelorMittal
50
Company Overview
52
Company Strategy
52
Latest Financial Results
54
Company Details
54
Financial Data
54
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
54
Methodology
55
Cross Checks
55

The South Africa Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in South Africa.

BMI's South Africa Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in South Africa.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South Africa metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

A comprehensive summary of the impact and implications of the latest regulatory developments and key forecast indicators covering metals production, consumption and upside/downside risks to our outlook. The Metals SWOT analysis outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Industry Forecast

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Steel: Steel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Aluminium: Aluminium consumption production & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Copper: Refined copper production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Zinc: Refined zinc production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Lead: Refined Lead production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Nickel: Refined nickel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Tin: Refined tin production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).

Regulatory Development

Details of the industry regulatory framework, relevant key legislation and environmental standards that impact the metals industry. The regulatory developments section provides analysis of the overall regulatory burden, the tax regime (including income tax rates), bureaucratic framework, corruption and a country specific political overview. Details of the industry regulatory framework provide information on relevant key legislation and regulations that will impact the metals industry.

Commodities Forecast

Provides in depth coverage and forecasting of steel prices and includes BMI’s core view of what to expect in upcoming months. Within the monthly metals update, BMI provides performance data and key forecasts for select commodities, including prices for aluminium, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel, palladium, platinum, silver, steel (MEPS Carbon Steel), tin and zinc.

Competitive landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses of detailed financial data for key listed metals firms, ranked in order of market cap (USDmn).

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive position and short to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects. Details of products and services provide a full overview of each company’s operations.

Sources

The Metals Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc