Business Monitor International


South Africa Metals Report

Published 30 October 2014

  • 56 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Africa Metals Report

BMI View:   Subdued refined metal prices ,   elevated energy costs , and continued labour unrest will lead to only modest growth in South Africa's metals industry . Nevertheless, positive consumption trends will persist, supported by multi-year growth from the auto, construction, and infrastructure sector s .

We expect just modest consumption growth of refined metals in South Africa in the coming years on the back of our forecast for the country's economic growth to lag those of its peers over the next decade. Still, the automotive, infrastructure, and construction industries will support demand for steel, aluminium, and nickel.

On the production side, we see further scope for output disruptions due to consistent labour unrest in the mining sector and long-term structural problems such as high electricity prices. Furthermore, a national carbon tax, which was recently delayed but now set to go into effect in 2016, will also be detrimental to investment in productive capacity. Although concessions will potentially be implemented for energy-intensive industries such as steel production, the tax will further weigh on a deteriorating environment for metals production in South Africa.

No Return To Peak
South Africa - Crude Steel Production

Due to production weakness across the metals landscape, we expect increased imports in the coming quarters, as investment in South African production facilities will be held back by the glut of metals, particularly steel, on the world market.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: Little Incentive To Invest
11
Production Outlook Muted
12
Table: South Africa - Major Steel Plants
14
Consumption Fundamentals Appear Stronger
15
Construction Looking More Positive, Though Problems Remain
16
Table: South Africa - Steel Consumption & Production
18
Table: South Africa - Steel Production & Trade Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
18
Aluminium: Diminishing As An Export Hub
19
Consumption Supported By Autos And Construction
19
Production Hampered By Power Woes
19
Upstream Supplies May Pose Challenge
20
Exports Likely To Decline
21
Table: South Africa - Primary Aluminium Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
22
Nickel: Declining Platinum Output To Constrain Nickel
22
Automotive Sector Remains Primary Demand Driver
23
Production Fundamentals Lag Demand
24
Table: South Africa - Refined Nickel Production, Consumption & Balance
25
Regulatory Development
26
Carbon Tax Delayed, Though Implementation Likely
26
Labour Market To Remain Volatile
26
Tax Regime
27
Table: South Africa - Political Overview
28
Commodities Forecast
30
Commodity Strategy
30
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
30
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
32
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
33
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
34
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
35
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
36
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
39
Steel Price Forecast
40
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
40
Short-Term Outlook
41
Core View
41
Global Steel Glut To Persist
42
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
42
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
44
Excessive Chinese Exports
46
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
46
Risks To Price Outlook
47
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
48
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
48
Competitive Landscape
50
Table: South Africa - Major Steel Production Facilities
50
Table: South Africa - Select Listed Metals Producers
51
Company Profile
53
ArcelorMittal
53
Company Overview
55
Company Strategy
55
Latest Financial Results
57
Company Details
57
Financial Data
57
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
57
Methodology
58
Cross Checks
58

The South Africa Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in South Africa.

BMI's South Africa Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in South Africa.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South Africa metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc