Business Monitor International


South Africa Freight Transport Report

Published 03 April 2014

  • 93 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Africa Freight Transport Report

BMI maintains a cautiously optimistic stance with regards to South Africa's freight transport sector in 2014. Although there are risks to the mining sector from a potential hard landing in China, our Mining desk believes that growth will continue, which bodes well for the rail and port sectors in particular. Imports of containerised goods could struggle to maintain volumes as the rand depreciates against the dollar, though equally this could boost manufactured exports from South Africa. Nevertheless, we have made moderate downgrades to most of our forecasts for the country following the release of full-year 2013 data.

Headline Industry Data

  • Rail freight growth will be 3.0% in 2014, and will average 3.4% to 2018.

  • Richards Bay Port's tonnage throughput in 2014 is forecast to increase by 4.2%. Over the medium-term we project a 4.8% average annual increase.

  • 2014 total trade growth is forecast at 5.3%, and to average 5.3% over the medium term.

  • Road freight volumes are set to expand by 5.7% in 2014, and to average 5.9% over our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

Pharma Market Entices Companies: South Africa has one of the most promising pharmaceuticals markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Despite challenges currently facing the sector, BMI is bullish with regards to the country over the longer term, as favourable demographics will ensure growth. This is a view shared by a number of freight players looking to capitalise on the market's growth prospects. Further, we believe that imports of pharmaceuticals will help support growth in freight volumes, and generate revenues.

TNPA Reaffirms Durban Harbour Development Plans Despite Criticism: South Africa-based Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) has reaffirmed its plan to lengthen and deepen Durban harbour. The confirmation follows media reports stating that the project is facing criticism from several environmental groups. The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) has not discarded the Environmental...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Air Freight
15
Table: Air Freight, 2009-2018
17
Rail Freight
17
Table: Rail Freight, 2009-2018
18
Road Haulage
18
Table: Road Freight, 2009-2018 ('000 tonnes)
19
Maritime Freight
19
Table: Maritime Freight Throughput, 2009-2018 ('000 tonnes)
19
Trade
20
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2018
20
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2018 (US$mn)
20
Table: South Africa's Main Import Partners, 2004-2012 (US$mn)
21
Table: South Africa's Main Export Partners, 2004-2012 (US$mn)
22
Market Overview
24
Industry Trends And Developments
27
Air Freight
27
Maritime Freight
28
Company Profile
30
Transnet Freight Rail (TFR)
30
Grindrod
36
Safmarine
41
Deutsche Afrika-Linien (DAL)
45
Political Outlook
47
Domestic Politics
47
Long-Term Political Outlook
50
Table: South Africa Political Overview
53
Oil Price Outlook
55
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
55
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
55
Methodology
57
Crude Price Forecasts
58
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
58
Oil Product Price Forecasts
58
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
59
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
60
Weak Demand Persists
61
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
62
Quarterly Prices
66
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
66
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
67
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
69
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
75
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
77
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
77
Risks To Outlook
79
Macroeconomic Forecasts
80
Economic Analysis
80
Table: Real GDP Growth, % chg q-o-q, SAAR
80
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity
85
Demographic Forecast
86
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
87
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
88
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
89
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
89
Methodology
90
Industry Forecast Methodology
90
Sector-Specific Methodology
91
Sources
92

The South Africa Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s South Africa Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South African freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South African freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc