Business Monitor International


South Africa Freight Transport Report

Published 07 October 2014

  • 93 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Africa Freight Transport Report

BMI maintains a cautiously optimistic stance in regards to South Africa's freight transport sector in 2014. Although there are risks to the mining sector from a potential hard landing in China, our Mining team believes that growth will continue, which bodes well for the rail and port sectors in particular. However, imports of containerised goods could struggle to maintain volumes as the central bank embarks on a rate hiking cycle. Coal exports through Richards Bay, the country's largest port in terms of tonnage, have underperformed through the first half of the year.

Headline Industry Data

  • Rail freight growth will be 3.0% in 2014, and will average 3.2% to 2018.

  • Richards Bay Port's tonnage throughput in 2014 is forecast to decrease by 5.0%. Over the medium-term we project a 0.7% average annual increase.

  • 2014 total trade growth is forecast at 3.5%, and to average 4.3% over the medium term.

  • Road freight volumes are set to expand by 6.5% in 2014, and to average 6.8% over our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

Coal Rail Dynamics Supportive Of Forecasts:  Rail infrastructure remains our favoured segment within South Africa's infrastructure sector, owing largely to continued demand for increased capacity to transport minerals. With underutilised port capacity and demand set to grow from the country's power sector, coal rail projects in particular offer the most supportive demand dynamics. 

Air Cargo Security Systems Receive TSA And EU Approval:  The air cargo security systems of South Africa have received approval by the Transport Security Administration of the US and the EU, according to South African Civil Aviation Authority Director Poppy Khoza. The approval is likely to enhance air carriers' operations between South Africa and the EU and the US. In addition, approval from the EU will free South African air carriers from the ACC3 regulation.

Delays To Durban Project:  The Durban Dug-out project, the plan to quadruple the container handling...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Air Freight
15
Table: Air Freight (South Africa 2011-2018)
17
Rail Freight
17
Table: Rail Freight (South Africa 2011-2018)
19
Road Haulage
19
Table: Road Freight (South Africa 2011-2018)
20
Maritime Freight
20
Table: Maritime Freight Throughput (South Africa 2011-2014)
22
Trade
22
Table: Trade Overview (South Africa 2011-2018)
22
Table: Key Trade Indicators (South Africa 2011-2018)
23
Table: South Africa's Main Import Partners, 2004-2012 (USDmn)
25
Table: South Africa's Main Export Partners, 2004-2012 (USDmn)
26
Market Overview
27
Industry Trends And Developments
32
Rail Freight
32
Road Haulage
33
Air Freight
34
Maritime Freight
34
Company Profile
36
Transnet Freight Rail (TFR)
36
Grindrod
42
Safmarine
47
Deutsche Afrika-Linien (DAL)
51
Political Outlook
53
Domestic Politics
53
Long-Term Political Outlook
56
Table: South Africa Political Overview
59
Oil Price Outlook
61
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
61
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
61
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
63
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
67
Risks To Outlook
68
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
69
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
69
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
74
Risks To Outlook
75
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
76
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
76
Supply Keeps Market Down
76
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
78
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
79
Risks To Outlook
82
Macroeconomic Forecasts
83
Expenditure Breakdown
83
Demographic Forecast
86
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
87
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
88
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
89
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
89
Methodology
90
Industry Forecast Methodology
90
Sector-Specific Methodology
91
Sources
92

The South Africa Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s South Africa Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South African freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South African freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc