Business Monitor International


South Africa Freight Transport Report

Published 03 April 2014

  • 93 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Africa Freight Transport Report

BMI maintains a cautiously optimistic stance with regards to South Africa's freight transport sector in 2014. Although there are risks to the mining sector from a potential hard landing in China, our Mining team believes that growth will continue, which bodes well for the rail and port sectors in particular. However, imports of containerised goods could struggle to maintain volumes as the central bank embarks on a rate hiking cycle. We have moderately downgraded most of our forecasts for the country following the release of full-year 2013 data.

Headline Industry Data

  • Rail freight growth will be 3.0% in 2014, and will average 3.3% to 2018.

  • Richards Bay Port's tonnage throughput in 2014 is forecast to increase by 4.2%. Over the medium-term we project a 4.8% average annual increase.

  • 2014 total trade growth is forecast at 3.8%, and to average 4.4% over the medium term.

  • Road freight volumes are set to expand by 6.5% in 2014, and to average 6.8% over our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

Strike Violence At Ngqura : The South African port of Ngqura has been struck by the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa) strike that has affected business across the country. The strike began on April 25 and was ongoing as of June 5. The strike has not been peaceful, with properties belonging to workers at the port who have elected not to go on strike being petrol bombed and vandalised.

South Africa And Swaziland Conduct Rail Study : Swaziland and South Africa's rail parastatals will deliver a feasibility study to assess the best way to join up a rail link to transport freight from road to rail between the two nations by end-2014. Swaziland Railway and South Africa's Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) partnered in 2011 to present a concept study for a 146km rail service from Lothair in South Africa to Sidvokodvo in Swaziland to ease congestion on South Africa's coal line and congestion caused by freight transportation into Swaziland, according to TFR's...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Air Freight
15
Table: Air Freight (South Africa 2011-2018)
17
Rail Freight
17
Table: Rail Freight (South Africa 2011-2018)
18
Road Haulage
18
Table: Road Freight (South Africa 2011-2018)
19
Maritime Freight
19
Table: Maritime Freight Throughput (South Africa 2009-2014)
19
Trade
21
Table: Trade Overview (South Africa 2011-2018)
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators (South Africa 2011-2018)
21
Table: South Africa's Main Import Partners, 2004-2012 (USDmn)
23
Table: South Africa's Main Export Partners, 2004-2012 (USDmn)
24
Market Overview
25
Industry Trends And Developments
28
Rail Freight
28
Road Haulage
28
Maritime Freight
29
Company Profile
31
Transnet Freight Rail (TFR)
31
Grindrod
37
Safmarine
42
Deutsche Afrika-Linien (DAL)
46
Political Outlook
48
Domestic Politics
48
Long-Term Political Outlook
52
Table: South Africa Political Overview
55
Oil Price Outlook
57
Diesel
57
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
57
New York's One-Off Heat Up
57
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
60
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
64
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
66
Risks To Outlook
70
Jet Fuel
71
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
71
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
71
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
73
Risks To Outlook
76
Bunker Fuel
77
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
77
The Storm Clears For Shipping
78
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
80
Long-Term Threats Linger
81
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
83
Risks To Outlook
84
Macroeconomic Forecasts
85
Table: Real GDP Growth, % chg q-o-q, SAAR
85
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity
89
Demographic Forecast
90
Demographic Outlook
90
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
91
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
92
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
93
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
93
Methodology
94
Industry Forecast Methodology
94
Sector-Specific Methodology
95
Sources
96

The South Africa Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s South Africa Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South African freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South African freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc