Business Monitor International


South Africa Freight Transport Report

Published 28 January 2015

  • 64 pages
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$1,295.00
South Africa Freight Transport Report

BMI View: BMI maintains a cautiously optimistic stance on South Africa's freight transport sector in 201 5 . Although there are risks to the mining sector from a potential hard landing in China, we believe that growth in the mining industry will continue, which bodes well for the rail and port sector s . However, i mports of containerised goods could struggle to maintain volumes as unemployment rises .

South Africa registered an increase of 7.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in freight volumes in September 2014, according to Statistics South Africa, based on a preliminary land transport survey. Income registered an increase of 12.3% . During Q314 the income from freight transportation rose by 9.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), with mining, quarrying, agriculture and forestry key contributors to this rise. These dynamics will continue to support growth in freight transport volumes in 2015.

Headline Industry Data

  • Rail freight growth will be 2.7% in 2015, and will average 3.0% to 2019.

  • Richards Bay Port's tonnage throughput in 2015 is forecast expand by 2.0%, returning to positive territory after a decline in volumes in 2014. Over the medium term we project a 2.2% average annual increase.

  • 2015 total trade growth is forecast at 4.3%, and to average 4.4% over the medium term.

  • Road freight volumes are set to expand by 5.7% in 2015, and to average 6.1% over our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

New Coal Freight Contracts Will Guarantee Return On Transnet's Investment: The new 'take-or-pay' contract between South African freighter Transnet and coal mining company BHP Billiton will guarantee Transnet a return on its equipment and infrastructure investment. Transnet is seeking to close similar guaranteed payment agreements with its 28 other coal-mining customers.

Long-Term Congestion Risks From Delays To Durban Expansion: Expansion project delays at the port of Durban present long-term capacity challenges and congestion risks at Africa's largest container...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Air Freight
15
Table: Air Freight (South Africa 2011-2018)
17
Rail Freight
17
Table: Rail Freight (South Africa 2011-2018)
19
Road Haulage
19
Table: Road Freight (South Africa 2011-2018)
20
Maritime Freight
20
Table: Maritime Freight Throughput (South Africa 2011-2014)
22
Trade
22
Table: Trade Overview (South Africa 2011-2018)
22
Table: Key Trade Indicators (South Africa 2011-2018)
23
Table: South Africa's Main Import Partners, 2004-2012 (USDmn)
25
Table: South Africa's Main Export Partners, 2004-2012 (USDmn)
26
Market Overview
27
Industry Trends And Developments
32
Rail Freight
32
Road Haulage
33
Air Freight
34
Maritime Freight
34
Company Profile
36
Transnet Freight Rail (TFR)
36
Grindrod
42
Safmarine
47
Deutsche Afrika-Linien (DAL)
51
Political Outlook
53
Domestic Politics
53
Long-Term Political Outlook
56
Table: South Africa Political Overview
59
Oil Price Outlook
61
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
61
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
61
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
63
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
67
Risks To Outlook
68
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
69
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
69
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
74
Risks To Outlook
75
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
76
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
76
Supply Keeps Market Down
76
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
78
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
79
Risks To Outlook
82
Macroeconomic Forecasts
83
Expenditure Breakdown
83
Demographic Forecast
86
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
87
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
88
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
89
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
89
Methodology
90
Industry Forecast Methodology
90
Sector-Specific Methodology
91
Sources
92

The South Africa Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s South Africa Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South African freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South African freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc