Business Monitor International


South Africa Food & Drink Report

Published 04 April 2014

  • 105 pages
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$1,295.00
South Africa Food & Drink Report

BMI View: We expect to see another positive year for the South African economy and consumer industries through 2014, as the country's economy continues to recover post-recession. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2014, up from 1.8% the previous year. In addition, private consumption is expected to continue its growth of the past four years at a rate of 2.2% in 2014, and 2.9% in 2015. Although the economic recovery has not been without challenges and will likely remain uneven, in our view the consumer sector continues to hold up.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 per capita food consumption (local currency) = +6.9%; five-year forecast compound annual growth (CAGR) to 2018 = +7.9%.

  • 2014 soft drinks volume sales = +8.2%; forecast compound annual growth to 2018 = +5.8%

  • 2014 mass grocery retail sales (local currency) = +8.0%; forecast compound annual growth to 2018 = +8.9%.

Key Company Developments

SABMiller ' s African Expansion Continues: SABMiller opened its second 1.8mn hectolitre brewery in Uganda in August 2013, effectively doubling its brewing potential in the country. This completes part of a US$260mn African expansion programme announced by the company in 2011. SABMiller intends similarly to expand brewing capacity in its important Ghanaian beer market (aiming to further gain ground on Heineken and Diageo), with work starting this year on a major extension of its Ghanaian facilities.

Pick n Pay Making Progress: South Africa's second biggest food retailer by sales, Pick n Pay, has improved its performance. After a challenging period that saw it lose further ground to its main rival Shoprite, it reported promising results for the first half of its 2013/14 trading year.

Chief among Pick n Pay's problems has been a relatively dated distribution network, which was thought to be a contributing factor in its consistently weaker operating margin performance compared with Shoprite over the past few years. Recent efforts to streamline its operations and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
12
Industry Forecast
14
Consumer Outlook
14
Food
16
Food Consumption
16
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
17
Confectionery
17
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
18
Canned Food
19
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
20
Meat
20
Table: Meat Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
21
Other Prepared Foods
22
Table: Jams & Jellies Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
23
Oils & Fats
23
Table: Oils & Fats Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
24
Dairy
26
Table: Dairy Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
27
Drink
31
Alcoholic Drinks
31
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
32
Soft Drinks
33
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
34
Hot Drinks
36
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
36
Mass Grocery Retail
37
Table: MGR Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
38
Trade
38
Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
38
Macroeconomic Forecast
39
Economic Analysis
39
Table: Real GDP Growth, % chg q-o-q, SAAR
39
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity
44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
45
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q214
46
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings, Q214 (scores out of 10)
49
South Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Market Overview
50
Food
50
Agriculture
50
Organics
51
Food Production
51
Drink
52
Alcoholic Drinks
52
Soft Drinks
53
Hot Drinks
53
Mass Grocery Retail
54
Table: Structure Of South Africa's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2011
56
Table: Structure Of South Africa's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format (US$bn), 2004-2011
56
Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format - 2011
56
Industry Trends And Developments
57
Food
57
Key Industry Trends And Developments
57
Drink
60
Key Industry Trends And Developments
60
Mass Grocery Retail
64
Key Industry Trends And Developments
64
Competitive Landscape
65
Table: Key Players In South Africa's Food Sector
65
Table: Key Players In South Africa's Drink Sector
66
Table: Key Players In South Africa's Mass Grocery Retail Industry
66
Company Profile
68
Distell
68
Illovo Sugar
70
Tiger Brands
72
Pioneer Foods
74
SABMiller
76
Shoprite Group
79
Woolworths
81
Pick n Pay
83
Global Industry Overview
85
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
94
Demographic Forecast
95
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
96
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
97
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
98
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
98
Glossary
99
Food & Drink
99
Mass Grocery Retail
99
Methodology
101
Industry Forecast Methodology
101
Sector-Specific Methodology
102
Sources
102
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
103
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
104
Table: Weighting
105

The South Africa Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's South Africa Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in South Africa.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc