Business Monitor International


South Africa Agribusiness Report

Published 03 February 2014

  • 109 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Africa Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We hold a positive view on the So uth African agricultural sector and see particular growth potential in the grain and livestock sectors. Both sectors ' growth will be boosted by regional export demand . The sugar sector also presents interesting growth opportunities , mainly thanks to renewed investment and improved technologies. Overall, the country ' s grain and livestock producers have been hit by recent hikes in grain prices and subdued corn supply on the domestic market. Margins have plummeted , and foreign competition for exports has made it even more difficult for producers to stay afloa t but the recovery is under way. We believe the country's main companies, AFGRI, Rainbow Chicken and Astral Foods , can only see profitability bounce from current subdued levels.

Grain & Livestock Above The Lot
South Africa - BMI Agribusiness Market Value By Commodity (% of total)

Key Forecasts

  • Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 21.9% to 2.4mn tonnes. This is based on our view that over the long term macroeconomic fundamentals, together with the increasing use of sugar for biofuels, will have a positive impact on sugar production levels.

  • Poultry consumption growth to 2018: 24.8% to 2.2mn tonnes. As more South African consumers move towards diets containing higher levels of protein, poultry (predominantly chicken but also turkey and duck) is increasingly being viewed as a convenient, healthy and affordable source of nutrition.

  • Corn production growth to 2017/18: 19.9% to 13.6mn tonnes. This relatively high growth rate reflects the influence of base effects. Growth will be supported by an improved macroeconomic outlook and the introduction of new corn varieties that generate higher crop yields.

  • Real GDP growth: 2.6% in 2014, up from 2.0% in 2013; predicted to average 2.9% over the five years to 2018. GDP per capita is expected to rise to US$11,639 in 2018 (from an estimated US$7,773 in 2013).

  • Unemployment: 24.8% in 2014, from 25.0% in...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Sugar Outlook
13
Table: South Africa Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
13
Table: South Africa Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
19
Rice Outlook
19
Table: South Africa Rice Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
20
Table: South Africa Rice Consumption, 2008-2013
21
Livestock Outlook
23
Table: South Africa Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
24
Table: South Africa Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
24
Table: South Africa Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
24
Table: South Africa Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
28
Table: South Africa Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
29
Table: South Africa Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
29
Grain Outlook
30
Table: South Africa Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
31
Table: South Africa Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
31
Table: South Africa Barley Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
31
Table: South Africa Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
35
Table: South Africa Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
36
Table: South Africa Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
36
Commodities Price Analysis
37
Monthly Grains Update
37
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
45
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
46
Monthly Softs Update
46
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
57
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
58
Upstream Analysis
59
Africa Machinery Outlook
59
Africa GM Outlook
66
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
71
Downstream Analysis
76
Food
76
Food Consumption
76
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
77
Confectionery
77
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
78
Canned Food
79
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
80
Meat
80
Table: Meat Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
81
Other Prepared Foods
82
Table: Jams & Jellies Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
82
Oils & Fats
83
Table: Oils & Fats Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
83
Dairy
85
Table: Dairy Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
86
Drink
89
Alcoholic Drinks
89
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
90
Soft Drinks
90
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
91
Hot Drinks
93
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
94
Mass Grocery Retail
94
Table: MGR Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
95
Regional Overview
96
Competitive Landscape
102
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
102
Demographic Forecast
103
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
104
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
105
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
106
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
106
Methodology
107
Industry Forecast Methodology
107
Sector-Specific Methodology
108

The South Africa Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's South Africa Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in South Africa.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The South Africa Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc