Business Monitor International


South Africa Agribusiness Report

Published 12 August 2014

  • 109 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Africa Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We hold a positive view on the South African agricultural sector and see particular growth potential in the grain and livestock sectors. Both sectors' growth will be boosted by regional export demand. The sugar sector also presents interesting growth opportunities, mainly thanks to renewed investment and improved technologies. Overall, the country's grain and livestock producers have been hit by recent hikes in grain prices and subdued corn supply on the domestic market. Margins have plummeted, and foreign competition for exports has made it even more difficult for producers to stay afloat. However, the recovery is under way. We believe the country's main companies, AFGRI , Rainbow Chicken and Astral Foods , can only see profitability bounce from current subdued levels.

Key Forecasts

  • Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 21.9% to 2.4mn tonnes. This is based on our view that macroeconomic fundamentals, together with the increasing use of sugar for biofuels, will have a positive impact on sugar production levels over the long term.

  • Poultry consumption growth to 2018:  24.8% to 2.2mn tonnes. As more South African consumers move towards diets containing higher levels of protein, poultry (predominantly chicken but also turkey and duck) is increasingly being viewed as a convenient, healthy and affordable source of nutrition.

  • Corn production growth to 2017/18:  12.6% to 13.9mn tonnes. This relatively high growth rate reflects the influence of base effects. Growth will be supported by an improved macroeconomic outlook and the introduction of new corn varieties that generate higher crop yields.

  • Real GDP growth:  1.8% in 2014, down from 1.9% in 2013; predicted to average 2.7% over the five years to 2018. GDP per capita is expected to rise to USD7,436 in 2018 (from an estimated USD6,646 in 2013).

  • Unemployment:  24.6% in 2014, from 25.0% in 2013 

  • Consumer price inflation: 6.3% in 2014, up from an average of 5.8% in 2013.

  • BMI...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Sugar Outlook
12
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
12
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
15
Rice Outlook
16
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (South Africa 2012-2018)
17
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
18
Livestock Outlook
18
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
20
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
20
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
20
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
24
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
24
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
24
Grain Outlook
25
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
26
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
26
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
27
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
31
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
31
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
31
Commodities Price Analysis
33
Monthly Grains Strategy
33
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
41
Monthly Softs Strategy
41
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
50
Upstream Analysis
51
Africa Machinery Outlook
51
Table: Number Of Tractors Per 1,000ha Of Arable Land
51
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
55
Table: South Africa - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In 2014 (%)
56
Africa GM Outlook
57
Table: Farm Size By Region
61
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
63
Downstream Analysis
70
Food
70
Food Consumption
70
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2018)
71
Confectionery
71
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2018)
72
Canned Food
73
Meat
73
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (South Africa 2013-2018)
73
Other Prepared Foods
74
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (South Africa 2013-2018)
74
Oils & Fats
74
Dairy
75
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018)
75
Drink
76
Alcoholic Drinks
76
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018)
77
Soft Drinks
78
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018)
79
Hot Drinks
80
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018)
81
Mass Grocery Retail
82
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018)
83
Regional Overview
84
Competitive Landscape
91
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
91
Demographic Forecast
92
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
93
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
94
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
95
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
95
Methodology
96
Industry Forecast Methodology
96
Sector-Specific Methodology
97

The South Africa Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's South Africa Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in South Africa.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The South Africa Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc