Business Monitor International


South Africa Agribusiness Report

Published 01 May 2014

  • 109 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Africa Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We hold a positive view on the South African agricultural sector and see particular growth potential in the grain and livestock sectors. Both sectors' growth will be boosted by regional export demand. The sugar sector also presents interesting growth opportunities, mainly thanks to renewed investment and improved technologies. Overall, the country's grain and livestock producers have been hit by recent hikes in grain prices and subdued corn supply on the domestic market. Margins have plummeted, and foreign competition for exports has made it even more difficult for producers to stay afloat. However, the recovery is under way. We believe the country's main companies, AFGRI, Rainbow Chicken and Astral Foods, can only see profitability bounce from current subdued levels.

Grain & Livestock Above The Lot
South Africa - BMI Agribusiness Market Value By Commodity (% of total)

Key Forecasts

  • Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 21.9% to 2.4mn tonnes. This is based on our view that macroeconomic fundamentals, together with the increasing use of sugar for biofuels, will have a positive impact on sugar production levels over the long term.

  • Poultry consumption growth to 2018: 24.8% to 2.2mn tonnes. As more South African consumers move towards diets containing higher levels of protein, poultry (predominantly chicken but also turkey and duck) is increasingly being viewed as a convenient, healthy and affordable source of nutrition.

  • Corn production growth to 2017/18: 15.4% to 14.2mn tonnes. This relatively high growth rate reflects the influence of base effects. Growth will be supported by an improved macroeconomic outlook and the introduction of new corn varieties that generate higher crop yields.

  • Real GDP growth: 2.2% in 2014, up from 1.9% in 2013; predicted to average 2.9% over the five years to 2018. GDP per capita is expected to rise to USD11,685 in 2018 (from an estimated USD6,646 in 2013).

  • Unemployment: 22.8% in 2014, from 25.0% in 2013

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Sugar Outlook
12
Table: South Africa Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
12
Table: South Africa Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
15
Rice Outlook
16
Table: South Africa Rice Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
16
Table: South Africa Rice Consumption, 2008-2013
17
Livestock Outlook
18
Table: South Africa Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
20
Table: South Africa Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
20
Table: South Africa Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
20
Table: South Africa Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
24
Table: South Africa Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
25
Table: South Africa Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
25
Grain Outlook
26
Table: South Africa Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
27
Table: South Africa Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
27
Table: South Africa Barley Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
27
Table: South Africa Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
30
Table: South Africa Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
31
Table: South Africa Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
31
Commodities Price Analysis
32
Monthly Grains Update
32
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
40
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
41
Monthly Softs Update
42
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
52
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
53
Upstream Analysis
54
Africa Machinery Outlook
54
Africa GM Outlook
61
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
66
Downstream Analysis
71
Food
71
Food Consumption
71
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
72
Confectionery
72
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
73
Canned Food
74
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
75
Meat
75
Table: Meat Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
76
Other Prepared Foods
77
Table: Jams & Jellies Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
78
Oils & Fats
78
Table: Oils & Fats Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
79
Dairy
81
Table: Dairy Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
82
Drink
86
Alcoholic Drinks
86
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
87
Soft Drinks
88
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
89
Hot Drinks
91
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
91
Mass Grocery Retail
92
Table: MGR Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
93
Regional Overview
94
Competitive Landscape
101
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
101
Demographic Forecast
102
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
103
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
104
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
105
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
105
Methodology
106
Industry Forecast Methodology
106
Sector-Specific Methodology
107

The South Africa Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's South Africa Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in South Africa.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The South Africa Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc