Business Monitor International


Slovenia Telecommunications Report

Published 28 October 2014

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Slovenia Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Slovenia's fairly small size and population has led to the market becoming saturated quickly, with minimal levels of growth throughout the sector. The continued dominant position of state-owned Telekom Slovenije has also stunted overall growth and investment in the market. With limited subscriber growth opportunities, we expect to see increased levels of M&A activity, as consolidation of smaller players by larger companies plays out over the next few years. For such a small market, there are too many active players, none of which can properly challenge Telekom Slovenije. This has led to bankruptcy procedures at T-2 as well as Tusmobil becoming an acquisition target Telemach and Telekom Austria. The p rivatisation of Telekom Slovenije expected to be sold by February 2014, and that would bring a new, private investor into the market, with upside benefits to growth as a result.

The country's relatively high income levels have led to it having the highest ARPU and postpaid subscription mix in the region, backed by growth in 3G services. The combination of high incomes and strong value-added service uptake means that the rollouts of 4G by the two largest mobile operators should be met with stronger demand than in neighbouring states in the region.

Key Data

  • The mobile market has continued to grow even as penetration reached 112.8% by the end of June 2014, with 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth to 2.311mn subscriptions. BMI forecasts growth will continue to slow in the medium term and total subscriptions will increase to 2.377mn by the end of 2018.

  • The broadband market has shifted towards higher speed technologies such as cable and fibre-to-the-home (FTTH). Fibre now represents 21% of the total fixed broadband market, 114,000 subscribers.  

  • By July 2014, Mobitel reported it had over 100,000 active LTE users on its network, with its coverage reaching over 60% of the population and 300 LTE base stations. The operator aims to expand this to a 75%...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Slovenia Telecoms Wireless SWOT
6
Slovenia Telecoms Wireline SWOT
7
Slovenia Political SWOT
8
Slovenia Economic SWOT
8
Slovenia Business Environment SWOT
9
Risk/Reward Ratings
10
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113
13
Industry Forecast Scenario
17
Table: Slovenian Telecoms Sector Mobile Historical Data And Forecasts
17
ARPU
19
Table: ARPU - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
19
Fixed-Line
21
Table: Slovenian Telecoms Sector Fixed-lines Historical Data And Forecasts
21
Internet
23
Table: Slovenian Telecoms Sector Internet Historical Data And Forecasts
23
Market Overview
25
Regional Perspective
25
Slovenia Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011
25
Key Developments
26
Mobile Growth
27
Market Share And Net Additions
28
Table: Slovenia Mobile Subscribers, Q212 (000')
28
Table: Subscriber Net Additions, Q211-Q212 ('000)
30
Subscription Mix
31
Usage (MOU/ARPU)
33
Networks
34
Mobile Contract Wins
37
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
37
Mobile Content/Value Added Services
38
Value-Added Services Timeline
40
Table: Selected VAS Services
40
Mobile Operator Data
41
Table: Slovenia Mobile Market Overview
41
Table: Mobitel
41
Table: Si
42
Mobile Content
44
Fixed-Line
48
Internet
50
FTTH
53
Pay-TV
54
WiMAX
55
Table: Wireline Developments
56
Industry Trends & Developments
57
Regulatory Environment
59
Table: Slovenia Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
59
Legislation And Market Liberalisation
60
Regulation
61
Regulatory Developments
62
Competitive Landscape
63
Table - Key Players: Slovenia Telecoms Sector
63
Table: Key Operators Financial Indicators
63
Company Profiles
64
Telekom Slovenije
64
Si
72
Company Monitor
76
Table: Revenue By Business Segment (HRK '000)
76
Table: Revenue By Geography (HRKmn)
77
Table: Key Contracts, 2011-2012
80
Glossary Of Terms
81
Table: Glossary Of Terms
81
Country Snapshot: Slovenia Demographic Data
83
Table: Slovenia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020, 1990-2020 ('000)
83
Table: Slovenia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
84
Table: Slovenia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
85
Table: Slovenia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
85
BMI Methodology
86
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
86
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
88
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
88
Table: Ratings Indicators
89
Weighting
90
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
90
Sources
90

The Slovenia Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Slovenia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Slovenia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Slovenia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Slovenia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc