Business Monitor International


Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 19 May 2014

  • 88 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
  • BMI View: Political instability caused by the collapse of the coalition government and the resignation by the prime minister has increased the risk of a slowdown in GDP growth and a likely loss of momentum in structural reforms. Therefore, the burden of healthcare cuts, under pressure from the EU and IMF, will fall on the pharmaceutical industry. Although public healthcare funding had managed to eliminate its deficit in 2013, undertaking healthcare reform has proved to be politically difficult: two health ministers have resigned since November 2013. As a result, we continue to believe pharmaceutical and healthcare spending will continue to decline this year and the next, before showing modest growth in 2016.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR720mn (US$960mn) in 2013 to EUR700mn (US$920mn) in 2014; +2.1% in local currency terms and -3.4% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: EUR3.21bn (US$4.26bn) in 2013 to EUR3.13bn (US$4.09bn) in 2014; -2.6% in local currency terms and -3.9% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

Slovenia's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating score for Q314 stands at 50.4 out of a total of 100, below the regional average of 51.6. A worsening political and economic outlook has impacted Slovenia's RRR score.

Key Trends & Developments

  • Slovenia's system of basing the price of a patented medicine on a group of medicines in the same therapeutic class, including generics was highlighted in the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America's Special 301 submission to the United States Trade Representative in April 2014.

  • The Competition Protection Agency (CPA) in 2014 will review health sector where the claims of bid rigging for public procurement contracts had been claimed, according to the EU review of Slovenia's policies in February 2014.

  • In April 2014, a UK court has ordered Anglo-Swedish drugmaker AstraZeneca to pay EUR21mn (USD28.9mn) in damages and court expenses to Slovenian generic drugmaker Krka in a lawsuit...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
18
Prescription Drug Market
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
22
Slovenia
23
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
24
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
25
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
26
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2018)
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Slovenia 2012-2018)
28
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Macro Outlook
31
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
32
Risks To Outlook
36
Table: Slovenia - Economic Activity
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Slovenia Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Rewards
45
Risks
45
Market Overview
47
Industry Trends And Developments
49
Epidemiology
49
Healthcare Sector
50
Regulatory Development
54
Intellectual Property Regime
55
Pricing Regime
55
Reimbursement Regime
57
Competitive Landscape
59
Pharmaceutical Industry
59
Recent Pharmaceutical Industry Developments
60
Company Profile
62
Krka
62
Lek (Novartis/Sandoz)
68
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
72
Sanofi
75
Pfizer
77
Novartis
80
Merck & Co
83
Demographic Forecast
85
Table: Slovenia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020, 1990-2020 ('000)
86
Table: Slovenia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
87
Table: Slovenia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
88
Table: Slovenia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
88
Glossary
89
Methodology
91
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
91
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
91
Notes On Methodology
92
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
93
Ratings Overview
94
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
94
Indicator Weightings
95

The Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc