Business Monitor International


Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 30 October 2014

  • 92 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:   We have maintained our forecasts for Slovenia going into 2015. However, we caution that with the new coalition government in place, reform of the healthcare sector is imminent over the coming months in the attempt to bring the budget deficit down. As a result, going into 2015 and 2016 we anticipate that the focus will remain on local generic drugmakers, with limited opportunities for innovative multinational companies.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR720mn (USD960mn) in 2013 to EUR700mn (USD940mn) in 2014; -2.2% in local currency terms and -1.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from previous quarter.

  • Healthcare: EUR3.1bn (USD4.1bn) in 2013 to EUR3.0bn (USD4.0bn) in 2014; -2.6% in local currency terms and -1.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from previous quarter.

Risk/Reward Rating

Slovenia scores 50.4 out of a total of 100 in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q115 - unchanged from the previous quarter. This places the country 11 th in our index of 20 countries and below the average for the region, which is 51.0.

Key Trends & Developments

  • In September 2014, in response to growing tensions between Western and Eastern Europe, Slovenian local industry players were reported to be in discussions with Indian pharmaceutical companies. Deep Kapuria, chairman of the Regional Committee on Central Europe at the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and chairman of Hi-Tech Group said: 'In high technology, India can gain from the R&D strengths of Slovenia. And Slovenian companies can work with Indian partners to expand in central Europe,' reports Business World.

  • In the same month, Prime Minister Miro Cerar announced government plans to reform the healthcare system, alongside promises of fiscal responsibility and the privatisation of state-owned companies. This forms the new coalition government's strategy to pull Slovenia away from economic crisis.

  • Exporters of end products to Russia, such as Krka,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
24
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
25
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
26
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2018)
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Slovenia 2012-2018)
28
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
32
Risks To Outlook
34
Table: Economic Activity (Slovenia 2009-2018)
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Slovenia Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Rewards
42
Risks
42
Market Overview
44
Industry Trends And Developments
46
Epidemiology
46
Healthcare Sector
47
Research & Development
50
Regulatory Development
51
Intellectual Property Regime
52
Pricing Regime
52
Reimbursement Regime
54
Competitive Landscape
56
Pharmaceutical Industry
56
Recent Pharmaceutical Industry Developments
57
Company Profile
59
Krka
59
Lek (Novartis/Sandoz)
65
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
69
Sanofi
72
Pfizer
74
Novartis
77
Merck & Co
79
Demographic Forecast
81
Table: Slovenia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020, 1990-2020 ('000)
82
Table: Slovenia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
83
Table: Slovenia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
84
Table: Slovenia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
84
Glossary
85
Methodology
87
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
87
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
87
Notes On Methodology
88
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
89
Index Overview
90
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
90
Indicator Weightings
91

The Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Slovenia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc