Business Monitor International


Slovenia Oil & Gas Report

Published 25 March 2014

  • 84 pages
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$1,295.00
Slovenia Oil & Gas Report

B MI View: There are glimmers of hope in the upstream oil and gas segment, with the Ascent -operated Petišovci tight gas scheme capable of improving near-term energy self-sufficiency and slowing the rate of growth in gas imports. The project is currently in the detailed permitting phase, facing unexpected slowdowns due to the lack of an established Slovenian regulatory infrastructure and new EU tendering obligations the country adopted in 2013. However, overall volumes are likely to be relatively modest, with imported Russian gas set to dominate supply for the foreseeable future. Slovenia is opposed to proposals for an Adriatic LNG terminal that is backed by Italy. This puts the country at odds with EU energy policy in the region.

The main trends and developments in Slovenia's oil and gas sector are:

  • Independent explorer Ascent Resources has recorded promising results from fracture stimulation at its Petišovci tight gas project in Slovenia. Operations at the Pg-11A well indicate the potential for high gas productivity. By the end of 2013 they had displaced investments in Hungary, Netherlands and Italy to focus exclusively on the Slovenian project. In November 2013 key contracts were signed between the explorer and its Slovenian partners, including a new joint venture agreement, as well as a new infrastructure and service agreement. First production from Petišovci is expected by end-2014. The company has been particularly upbeat about the prospects of the project, with estimates of gas-in-place of as much as 17bn cubic metres (bcm). However they have recently noted that due to the lack of pre-existing Slovenian regulatory infrastructure, many of the permit requests are being processed more slowly than initially forecasted. Additional slowdowns are ascribed to new EU tendering obligations the country adopted in 2013. In February 2012, Ascent reported a 22% increase in P50 gas-in-place (GIP) volumes - to 14.3bcm - which was above the 11.7bcm previously...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Slovenia Proven Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Slovenia Proven Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
12
Table: Slovenia Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
12
Table: Slovenia Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
13
Gas Supply And Demand
15
Table: Slovenia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Slovenia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
16
Refining And Oil Products Trade
18
Table: Slovenia Refining - Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
18
Table: Slovenia Refining - Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
18
Revenues/Import Costs
19
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
19
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
21
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
22
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Growing Technical Challenges
25
Regional Minnows Breaking In
26
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
27
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
27
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Slovenia - Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Slovenia Upstream Rating - Overview
31
Slovenia Upstream Rating - Rewards
31
Slovenia Upstream Rating - Risks
31
Slovenia Downstream Rating - Overview
32
Market Overview
33
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
33
Oil Refineries
33
Table: Refineries In Slovenia
33
Service Stations
33
Oil Storage Facilities
33
Oil Terminals/Ports
33
Oil Pipelines
34
Gas Pipelines
34
Competitive Landscape
36
Competitive Landscape Summary
36
Table: Key Downstream Players
37
Company Profile
38
Petrol
38
Geoplin
42
Nafta Lendava
45
Other Summaries
47
Regional Overview
49
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
49
Trade Dynamic To Persist But Growth Moves East
51
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
52
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
54
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
56
South Stream Looking Weak
57
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
57
Shale Gas Showdown
58
Global Industry Overview
61
Global Energy Market Overview
61
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
63
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
64
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
65
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
67
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
67
Appendix
70
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
70
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
70
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
71
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
71
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
72
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
73
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
74
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
74
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
75
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
76
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
77
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
77
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
78
Slovenia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
79
Table: Slovenia Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown
79
Table: Slovenia Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown
79
Table: Slovenia Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown
80
Table: Slovenia Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown
81
Table: Slovenia Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown
82
Table: Slovenia Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown
83
Glossary
85
Table: Glossary Of Terms
85
Methodology
87
Industry Forecast Methodology
87
Source
89
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
89
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
91
Table: Weighting
92

The Slovenia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Slovenia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Slovenia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Slovenia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc