Business Monitor International


Slovenia Oil & Gas Report

Published 25 March 2014

  • 84 pages
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$1,295.00
Slovenia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: There are glimmers of hope in the upstream oil and gas segment, with the Ascent-operated Petišovci tight gas scheme capable of improving near-term energy self-sufficiency and slowing the rate of growth in gas imports. However, overall volumes are likely to be relatively modest, with imported Russian gas set to dominate supply for the foreseeable future . Slovenia is opposed to proposals for an Adriatic LNG terminal that is backed by Italy. This puts the country at odds with EU energy policy in the region.

The main trends and developments in Slovenia's oil and gas sector are:

  • Independent explorer Ascent Resources has recorded promising results from fracture stimulation at its Petišovci tight gas project in Slovenia. Operations at the Pg-11A well indicate the potential for high gas productivity. In November 2013 key contracts were signed between the explorer and its Slovenian partners, including a new joint venture agreement, as well as a new infrastructure and service agreement. First production from Petišovci is expected by end-2014. The company has been particularly upbeat about the prospects of the project, with estimates of gas-in-place of as much as 17bn cubic metres (bcm). In February 2012, Ascent reported a 22% increase in P50 gas-in-place (GIP) volumes - to 14.3bcm - which was above the 11.7bcm previously announced for the scheme. The 200sq km Petišovci area straddles the Hungary/Slovenia border and contains three depleted shallow conventional oil and gas fields.

  • Gas demand, which fell by 12% in 2012, made a partial recovery in 2013, growing 5%, and is expected to reach 1.0bcm by 2017, increasing to 1.3bcm by 2023. Domestic production for 2017-2022 is forecast to come in at around 0.8bcm based on the Petišovci-Lovaszi project, meaning that there will be a greatly reduced import requirement. Further success in proving up reserves and production potential could mean upside risk in terms of domestic gas supply. Oil consumption is expected...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Oil And Gas Reserves
9
Table: Slovenia Proven Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
9
Table: Slovenia Proven Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
10
Oil Supply And Demand
11
Table: Slovenia Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
11
Table: Slovenia Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
12
Gas Supply And Demand
13
Table: Slovenia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
13
Table: Slovenia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
14
Refining And Oil Products Trade
17
Table: Slovenia Refining - Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
17
Table: Slovenia Refining - Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
17
Revenues/Import Costs
18
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
18
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
20
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
21
East Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
21
Russia: Large Resource Base But Limited Opportunities
23
Regional Minnows Breaking In
25
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
26
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
26
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Slovenia - Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Slovenia Upstream Rating - Overview
30
Slovenia Upstream Rating - Rewards
30
Slovenia Upstream Rating - Risks
30
Slovenia Downstream Rating - Overview
30
Market Overview
31
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
31
Oil Refineries
31
Table: Refineries In Slovenia
31
Service Stations
31
Oil Storage Facilities
31
Oil Terminals/Ports
31
Oil Pipelines
32
Gas Pipelines
32
Competitive Landscape
34
Competitive Landscape Summary
34
Table: Key Downstream Players
34
Company Profile
35
Petrol
35
Geoplin
39
Nafta Lendava
42
Other Summaries
44
Regional Overview
46
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
46
A Mutually Dependent Relationship
48
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
49
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
50
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
52
South Stream Looking Weak
53
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
53
Shale Gas Showdown
54
Global Industry Overview
57
Global Energy Market Overview
57
Appendix
65
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
65
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
65
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
66
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
66
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
67
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
68
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
68
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
69
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
70
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
71
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
71
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
72
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
73
Glossary
74
Table: Glossary Of Terms
74
Methodology
76
Industry Forecast Methodology
76
Source
78
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
78
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
80
Table: Weighting
82

The Slovenia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Slovenia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Slovenia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Slovenia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc