Business Monitor International


Slovenia Oil & Gas Report

Published 16 December 2014

  • 84 pages
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$1,295.00
Slovenia Oil & Gas Report

B MI View: There are glimmers of hope in the upstream oil and gas segment, with the Ascent-operated Petišovci tight gas scheme capable of improving near-term energy self-sufficiency and slowing the rate of growth in gas imports. The project is currently in the detailed permitting phase, facing unexpected slowdowns due to the lack of an established Slovenian regulatory infrastructure and new EU tendering obligations the country adopted in 2013. Ascent expects that the permitting required for phase one will be put to public consultation in Q1 2015. However, overall volumes are likely to be relatively modest, with imported Russian gas set to dominate supply for the foreseeable future. Slovenia is opposed to proposals for an Adriatic LNG terminal that is backed by Italy. This puts the country at odds with EU energy policy in the region.

Headline Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2018)
2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 55.9 55.5 55.0 55.3 55.6 56.2 56.6
e/f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA/BMI

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The main trends and developments in Slovenia's oil and gas sector are:

  • Independent explorer Ascent Resources has recorded promising results from fracture stimulation at its Petišovci tight gas project in Slovenia. Operations at the Pg-11A well indicate the potential for high gas productivity. By the end of 2013 they had displaced investments in Hungary, Netherlands and Italy to focus exclusively on the Slovenian project. In November 2013, key contracts were signed between the explorer and its...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Slovenia 2012-2017)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Slovenia 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Production - Oil
12
Table: Oil Production (Slovenia 2012-2017)
12
Table: Oil Production (Slovenia 2018-2023)
13
Upstream Production - Gas
14
Table: Gas Production (Slovenia 2012-2017)
14
Table: Gas Production (Slovenia 2018-2023)
15
Refining
16
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Slovenia 2012-2017)
17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Slovenia 2018-2023)
17
Refined Fuels Consumption
18
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Slovenia 2012-2017)
18
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Slovenia 2018-2023)
19
Gas Consumption
20
Table: Gas Consumption (Slovenia 2012-2017)
20
Table: Gas Consumption (Slovenia 2018-2023)
21
Trade - Oil
22
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Slovenia 2012-2017)
22
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Slovenia 2018-2023)
22
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Slovenia 2012-2017)
23
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Slovenia 2018-2023)
24
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Slovenia 2012-2017)
25
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Slovenia 2018-2023)
25
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
25
Table: Gas Net Exports (Slovenia 2012-2017)
25
Table: Gas Net Exports (Slovenia 2018-2023)
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
28
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
29
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Limited Supportive Policy
32
Regional Minnows Breaking Through
33
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
34
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
34
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Slovenia - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Slovenia Upstream Rating - Overview
37
Slovenia Upstream Rating - Rewards
37
Slovenia Upstream Rating - Risks
37
Slovenia Downstream Rating - Overview
38
Market Overview
39
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
39
Oil Refineries
39
Table: Refineries In Slovenia
39
Service Stations
39
Oil Storage Facilities
39
Oil Terminals/Ports
39
Oil Pipelines
40
Gas Pipelines
40
Competitive Landscape
42
Competitive Landscape Summary
42
Table: Key Downstream Players
43
Company Profile
44
Petrol
44
Geoplin
48
Nafta Lendava
51
Other Summaries
53
Regional Overview
55
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Overview
55
CEE Oil Production - Russia Dominates, Caspian Output To Grow
55
CEE Oil Consumption - Regional Demand Outpacing Supply
56
CEE Refining Capacity - Few Bright Spots
57
CEE Natural Gas Production - Caspian Firing Up China
58
CEE Gas Consumption - New Gas Mainly Exported
59
Global Industry Overview
61
Global Energy Market Overview
61
Appendix
67
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
67
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
67
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
68
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
70
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
70
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
71
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
71
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
72
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
73
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
74
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
74
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
75
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
76
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
77
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
77
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
78
Slovenia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
79
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Slovenia 2012-2017)
79
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Slovenia 2018-2023)
79
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Slovenia 2012-2017)
80
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Slovenia 2018-2023)
81
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Slovenia 2012-2017)
82
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Slovenia 2018-2023)
83
Slovenia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
84
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Slovenia 2012-2017)
84
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Slovenia 2018-2023)
84
Glossary
86
Table: Glossary Of Terms
86
Methodology
88
Industry Forecast Methodology
88
Source
90
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
90
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
92
Table: Weighting
93

The Slovenia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Slovenia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Slovenia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Slovenia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc