Business Monitor International


Slovenia Infrastructure Report

Published 09 January 2014

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Slovenia Infrastructure Report

BMI View: We remain bearish on the outlook for the Slovenian construction industry, premised on the poor outlook for the broader economy. Although we were over pessimistic at -7.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in 2012, which came in at -6.8% according to official statistics, our bearish view played out. In light of very little activity in the infrastructure sector, and poor outlooks for personal consumption and fixed investments, we forecast that the industry will contract in 2013 by 4.6% and 0.5% in 2014. Tightness in the banking sector, even after recapitalisation in December in 2013, and deepening cuts will diminish scope for investment in construction projects in the medium term. Consequentially, we forecast the Slovenian construction industry value to reach EUR2.53bn (US$3.04bn) through the forecast period, growing by a modest average of 2.4% y-o-y (in real terms) between 2015 and 2023.

The cautious growth in the construction industry will mainly be driven by growth in infrastructure sub-sector as residential and non-residential building segment is likely to remain depressed. The infrastructure accounted for just over 43% of the total construction industry value during 2011, with the transport infrastructure being considerably ahead of energy in terms of value. Transport is set to increase by a real growth rate of 1.85% y-o-y on average between 2013 and 2021, mostly driven by the developments in the port and airport sub-segments. We also expect energy and utilities to grow by a similar magnitude, primarily on the back the government's commitment to a mix of thermal, nuclear and renewable energy development.

Following are the key areas of growth in the infrastructure sector:

  • Rejuvenating The Transport Sector: The Slovenian port of Koper continues to drive forward its plan to develop into a maritime gateway for Central and Eastern Europe. Port operator International Container Terminal Services Inc (ICTSI) is looking to make the port more attractive to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Slovenia Infrastructure SWOT
7
Market Overview
8
Building Materials
9
Europe
9
Table: Cement Price / Volume, % Variance (6M11/6M12)
13
Industry Forecast Scenario
14
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010 - 2017
14
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021
15
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
17
Transport Infrastructure
20
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010 - 2017
20
Table: Slovenia Transport Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
22
Transport Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
24
Major Projects Table - Transport
27
Table: Major Projects - Transport
27
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure
28
Table: Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010 - 2017
28
Table: Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
30
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
32
Major Projects Table - Energy and Utilities
34
Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities
34
Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
36
Table: Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data, 2010 - 2017
36
Table: Residential and Non-residential Building Long-Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
36
Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook And Overview
37
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
38
Table: Major Projects Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
38
Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Slovenia's Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Rewards
39
Risks
39
Industry Trend Analysis
40
Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Table: CEE Infrastructure Risk Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100
42
Company Monitor
43
Primorje
43
Trimo
44
Slovenija ceste tehnika (SCT)
45
Global Overview
47
Methodology
54
Industry Forecasts
54
Construction Industry
55
Data Methodology
55
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
55
Construction
56
Capital Investment
57
Construction Sector Employment
58
Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
58
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
59

The Slovenia Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Slovenia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Slovenian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, renewable projects, pipelines and so on).

Industry Trends

Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport, utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:

Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments, including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.

Building Materials Overview

The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data point.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).

Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways, airports, roads and bridges, ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and water infrastructure).

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc