Business Monitor International


Slovenia Infrastructure Report

Published 22 December 2014

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Slovenia Infrastructure Report

BMI View: The fortunes of the Slovenian construction industry have finally taken a positive turn after five years of contraction. According to 9M14 construction indicators from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, the construction sector grew 40% year-on-year. We're forecasting the Slovenian economy will have moved out of recession in 2014 to post 2.0% growth. We've accordingly adjusted our 2014 and 2015 industry figures upwards; however, we remain relatively cautious as growth - economic and industrial - in 2014 can be largely attributed to the very low base of 2013. Nonetheless, we're more optimistic than we have been for the last few years and believe infrastructure will settle into a modest, if restrained, growth pattern from 2015, thanks largely to EU energy and transport funding.

As for the infrastructure subsector mix, there will be very little change in dominance over our forecast period to 2024. Residential and non-residential building will continue to hold the bulk of total construction over the infrastructure industry, averaging 57% to 43% respectively. Transport will contribute around 73% to total infrastructure value, with roads and bridges dominating transport spending. Energy and utilities will contribute 27% to infrastructure value over this period. The industry is forecast to grow in value by 48% from EUR1.8bn (USD2.3bn) in 2015 to EUR2.8bn (USD3.4bn) in 2024.

Following are the key areas of growth in the infrastructure sector:

Principal Airport To Finally Expand: In September 2014, German airport company Fraport acquired a 75.5% stake of Slovenia's principal airport Ljubljana International's operator Aerodrom Ljubljana. Fraport signed an agreement with a consortium led by SDH to buy the stake for EUR177.1mn (USD224mn). SDH received about EUR16mn (USD20.24mn) for its 6.82% stake in Aerodrom Ljubljana, while the Slovenian government received EUR118.8mn (USD150.26mn) for a further 50.67% in equity. Fraport made the partial...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Slovenia Infrastructure SWOT
7
Market Overview
8
Building Materials
9
Europe
9
Table: Cement Price / Volume, % Variance (6M11/6M12)
13
Industry Forecast Scenario
14
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010 - 2017
14
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021
15
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
17
Transport Infrastructure
20
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010 - 2017
20
Table: Slovenia Transport Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
22
Transport Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
24
Major Projects Table - Transport
27
Table: Major Projects - Transport
27
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure
28
Table: Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010 - 2017
28
Table: Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
30
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
32
Major Projects Table - Energy and Utilities
34
Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities
34
Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
36
Table: Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data, 2010 - 2017
36
Table: Residential and Non-residential Building Long-Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
36
Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook And Overview
37
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
38
Table: Major Projects Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
38
Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Slovenia's Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Rewards
39
Risks
39
Industry Trend Analysis
40
Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Table: CEE Infrastructure Risk Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100
42
Company Monitor
43
Primorje
43
Trimo
44
Slovenija ceste tehnika (SCT)
45
Global Overview
47
Methodology
54
Industry Forecasts
54
Construction Industry
55
Data Methodology
55
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
55
Construction
56
Capital Investment
57
Construction Sector Employment
58
Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
58
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
59

The Slovenia Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Slovenia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Slovenian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The Reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points to provides indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The infrastructure Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc