Business Monitor International


Slovenia Infrastructure Report

Published 09 January 2014

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Slovenia Infrastructure Report

BMI View: We remain bearish on the outlook for the Slovenian construction industry, premised on the poor outlook for the broader economy. Although we were over pessimistic at -7.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in 2012, which came in at -6.8% according to official statistics, our bearish view played out. In light of very little activity in the infrastructure sector, and poor outlooks for personal consumption and fixed investments, we forecast that the industry will contract in 2013 by 4.6% and 0.5% in 2014. Tightness in the banking sector, even after recapitalisation in December in 2013, and deepening cuts will diminish scope for investment in construction projects in the medium term. Consequentially, we forecast the Slovenian construction industry value to reach EUR2.53bn (US$3.04bn) through the forecast period, growing by a modest average of 2.4% y-o-y (in real terms) between 2015 and 2023.

The cautious growth in the construction industry will mainly be driven by growth in infrastructure sub-sector as residential and non-residential building segment is likely to remain depressed. The infrastructure accounted for just over 43% of the total construction industry value during 2011, with the transport infrastructure being considerably ahead of energy in terms of value. Transport is set to increase by a real growth rate of 1.85% y-o-y on average between 2013 and 2021, mostly driven by the developments in the port and airport sub-segments. We also expect energy and utilities to grow by a similar magnitude, primarily on the back the government's commitment to a mix of thermal, nuclear and renewable energy development.

Following are the key areas of growth in the infrastructure sector:

  • Rejuvenating The Transport Sector: The Slovenian port of Koper continues to drive forward its plan to develop into a maritime gateway for Central and Eastern Europe. Port operator International Container Terminal Services Inc (ICTSI) is looking to make the port more attractive to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010 - 2017
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021
11
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
13
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
15
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012 - 2017
15
Table: Slovenia Transport Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2018 - 2023
17
Transport Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
19
Major Projects Table - Transport
22
Table: Major Projects - Transport
22
Energy And Utilities - Outlook And Overview
23
Table: Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010 - 2017
23
Table: Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
24
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
25
Major Projects Table - Energy and Utilities
28
Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities
28
Residential
Residential
Table: Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data, 2012 - 2017
29
Table: Residential and Non-residential Building Long-Term Forecasts, 2018- 2023
29
Residential
Residential
Major Projects Table - Residential
Major Projects Table - Residential
Table: Major Projects Residential
Table: Major Projects Residential
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Central And Eastern Europe - Infrastructure Risk
Central And Eastern Europe - Infrastructure Risk
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk
Slovenia - Infrastructure Risk
Slovenia - Infrastructure Risk
Market Overview
40
Company Profile
41
Primorje
41
Trimo
43
Slovenija ceste tehnika
45
Global Infrastructure Overview
47
Global Industry Overview
47
Table: Latin America PPP Round-Up
51
Methodology
56
Industry Forecast Methodology
56
Sector-Specific Methodology
57
Risk
Risk
Sector-Specific Methodology
62
Table: Infrastructure Risk
Table: Infrastructure Risk
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
63

The Slovenia Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Slovenia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Slovenian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, renewable projects, pipelines and so on).

Industry Trends

Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport, utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:

Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments, including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.

Building Materials Overview

The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data point.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).

Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways, airports, roads and bridges, ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and water infrastructure).

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc