Despite a 3% drop year-on-year (y-o-y) in June, Slovenian exports continued to expand in 2013, reaching 1.5% growth for H1 2013 compared with the same period last year. This provides welcome news to the country's freight industry following a very choppy 2012 in terms of tonnage growth. Most notable was the 6% y-o-y drop in imports in June, supporting our view for a widening current account surplus for 2013. The latest data, released in September for the month of July, show this trend continuing, with a 7% increase in exports compared with July 2012 and a more modest 2.8% increase in imports.
While exports of goods remain the leading driver of Slovenia's trade picture, exports of services are performing even better, with a 3.1% y-o-y increase over the first seven months of the year. At the same time, imports of foreign services fell by 3.9% y-o-y over the same period.
We expect domestic demand to continue receding for the next quarters. The uncertainty surrounding the banking sector, along with large government spending cuts and tax hikes will put a drag on Slovenian's purchasing power and willingness to consume. Slumping imports will continue to be offset by rapid growth in exports as the country becomes relatively more competitive than its neighbours.
In 2014, the freight industry's outperformer in Slovenia in y-o-y tonnage handled terms is set to be air freight once again. Rail and road freight growth will be negligible this year, while the Port of Koper will record steady annual growth of just over 3%.
Headline Industry Data
2014 air freight tonnage is forecast to increase 6.50% y-o-y to 8,690 tonnes
2014 rail freight tonnage is forecast to rise 0.80% to 15.48mn tonnes
2014 road freight tonnage throughput is predicted to grow 1.51% to 57.34mn tonnes
2014 Port of Koper tonnage growth is expected to increase by 3.20% to 19.01mn tonnes
Total trade in 2014 is forecast to increase by 2.15% in real terms
Key Industry Trends
Slovenia Strengthens Links With...
The Slovenia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Slovenia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.