Business Monitor International


Slovenia Defence & Security Report

Published 15 January 2015

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Slovenia Defence & Security Report

BMI View: Defence expenditure as a proportion of GDP rose in the last decade, from 1.15% of GDP in 2000 to 1.6% of GDP in 2010. However, it has declined since, and we estimate defence of 1.2% in 2014, although we do see a rise to 1.3% in 2015. This is well below the NATO European average of 2.2% and below the 2% target that NATO specifies for its members.

Borut Pahor, Slovenia's president, insisted in October 2014 that the country would make no further cuts to military expenditure in the coming years. The government has made pledges to this end to stabilise defence spending levels. Slovenia needs to address both defence spending levels and military modernisation.

We expect Slovenia to spend around USD576mn on defence in 2015, a fall from our estimate of USD589mn in 2014. By 2019 we expect the Slovenian defence budget to be worth USD672mn.

We have given Slovenia an overall security risk index score of 96 out of 100 for 2015. On average, Slovenia has had a security risk rating of 92 for November 2007 up to and including 2015. We see Slovenia as having a very low risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict, and also only a low risk of terrorist attack or major criminal activity.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Slovenia Security SWOT
6
Slovenia Defence Industry SWOT
7
Slovenia Political SWOT
7
Slovenia Economic SWOT
8
Slovenia Business Environment SWOT
8
Global Political Outlook
9
Europe Security Overview
14
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
14
Europe In A Global Context
14
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
14
The Future Of The Eurozone And EU
14
EU Expansion
15
NATO Expansion And Relations With The US
15
Post-Qadhafi Libya
16
Relations With Russia
17
Relations With Turkey
17
The Balkans
18
Organised Crime
18
Islamist Terrorism
19
The Greater Black Sea Region
19
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute
20
Security Risk Analysis
22
BMI-s Security Ratings
22
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
22
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
23
Political Overview
25
Domestic Politics
25
Long-Term Political Outlook
26
Security Overview
30
Internal Security Situation
30
External Security Situation
34
Relations With Croatia
34
Relations With Serbia
36
Relations With The EU
37
Relations With The US And NATO
37
Latest Developments
38
Armed Forces And Government Spending
40
Armed Forces
40
Defence Reforms
41
International Deployments
43
Coordination And Joint Operations
44
Defence Cooperation - Montenegro
44
Defence Cooperation - Macedonia
45
Market Overview
46
Table: Key Players In Slovenia-s Defence Sector
47
Arms Trade Overview
48
Procurement Trends And Developments
49
Latest Developments
50
Industry Forecast Scenario
52
Armed Forces
52
Table: Slovenia's Armed Forces Personnel, 2002-2009 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
52
Table: Slovenia's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
52
Government Expenditure On Defence
53
Table: Slovenia-s Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017
53
Table: Slovenia-s Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
54
Defence Trade
55
Table: Slovenia's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
55
Table: Slovenia's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
55
Table: Slovenia's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
55
Macroeconomic Forecast
56
Table: Slovenia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
58
Company Profiles
59
Fotona Defence
59
Sistemska Tehnika
60
Skupina KIK Kamnik
62
BMI Methodology
63
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
63
Defence Industry
63
City Terrorism Rating
64
Table: Methodology
66
Sources
67

The Slovenia Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Slovenia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Slovenian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Slovenian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world’s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world’s ‘wild card’ low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.

BMI industry Forecast scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • defence expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
  • armed forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, Manpower fit for military service, Army Personnel, Navy Personnel, Air Force Personnel, Total armed forces, (‘000) (% population).
  • arms trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); Bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); Revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); Military weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).

Political Risk assessment

Drawing on BMI’s heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk analysis

BMI’s proprietary Security Risk Indices provide investors with a reliable – and country-comparable – guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious – or prolonged – terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces spending/ expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Competitive landscape

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries. The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting the Americas, along with potential risks in the coming year.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Defence & Security Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc