Business Monitor International


Slovenia Defence & Security Report

Published 24 December 2013

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Slovenia Defence & Security Report

BMI View: Defence expenditure as a proportion of GDP rose in the last decade, from 1.15% of GDP in 2000 to 1.6% of GDP in 2010. However, it has declined since then, and we forecast defence spending to remain at 1.2% of GDP in 2013, rising to 1.3% by 2015. This is well below the NATO European average of 2.2% and below the 2% target that NATO members adopted as a target for 2014.

For budgetary purposes, the Slovene armed forces are not divided into army, air and naval forces. Of total active armed forces, 7,500 belong to the land brigade, 530 to two air battalions, 47 are employed in one naval battalion and 4,500 are paramilitaries, all of whom are members of the armed police service. In addition, the Slovene military has an estimated reserve force of 20,000 and a further 5,000 reserve paramilitary personnel.

The Slovenian military is undertaken a modernisation programme. Compulsory reserve service ended in 2010, following the abolition of active duty conscription in 2003.

Slovenia's deployable reaction force is represented by the professional brigade. The small air force is equipped with helicopters and turbo-prop fixed wing aircraft, and a naval attachment deploys a coastal patrol boat.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Slovenia Security SWOT
6
Slovenia Defence Industry SWOT
7
Slovenia Political SWOT
7
Slovenia Economic SWOT
8
Slovenia Business Environment SWOT
8
Global Political Outlook
9
Europe Security Overview
14
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
14
Europe In A Global Context
14
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
14
The Future Of The Eurozone And EU
14
EU Expansion
15
NATO Expansion And Relations With The US
15
Post-Qadhafi Libya
16
Relations With Russia
17
Relations With Turkey
17
The Balkans
18
Organised Crime
18
Islamist Terrorism
19
The Greater Black Sea Region
19
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute
20
Security Risk Analysis
22
BMI-s Security Ratings
22
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
22
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
23
Political Overview
25
Domestic Politics
25
Long-Term Political Outlook
26
Security Overview
30
Internal Security Situation
30
External Security Situation
34
Relations With Croatia
34
Relations With Serbia
36
Relations With The EU
37
Relations With The US And NATO
37
Latest Developments
38
Armed Forces And Government Spending
40
Armed Forces
40
Defence Reforms
41
International Deployments
43
Coordination And Joint Operations
44
Defence Cooperation - Montenegro
44
Defence Cooperation - Macedonia
45
Market Overview
46
Table: Key Players In Slovenia-s Defence Sector
47
Arms Trade Overview
48
Procurement Trends And Developments
49
Latest Developments
50
Industry Forecast Scenario
52
Armed Forces
52
Table: Slovenia's Armed Forces Personnel, 2002-2009 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
52
Table: Slovenia's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
52
Government Expenditure On Defence
53
Table: Slovenia-s Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017
53
Table: Slovenia-s Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
54
Defence Trade
55
Table: Slovenia's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
55
Table: Slovenia's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
55
Table: Slovenia's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
55
Macroeconomic Forecast
56
Table: Slovenia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
58
Company Profiles
59
Fotona Defence
59
Sistemska Tehnika
60
Skupina KIK Kamnik
62
BMI Methodology
63
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
63
Defence Industry
63
City Terrorism Rating
64
Table: Methodology
66
Sources
67

The Slovenia Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Slovenia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Slovenian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Slovenian defence and security market.
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    Coverage

    Global and Regional Political Outlooks

    A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

    SWOT Analysis

    Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

    Political Risk Assessment

    Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

    Security Risk Analysis

    BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

    Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

    The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

    Domestic Security Overview

    The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

    BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

    Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

    Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

    Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

    Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

    Company Profiles

    Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

    Domestic Security Overview

    The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc