Business Monitor International


Slovenia Autos Report

Published 03 January 2014

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Slovenia Autos Report

The most recent data available from Slovenia's Association of Automobile Manufacturers and Authorised Importers suggest that 2013 could have been a positive year for new car sales. January to November new vehicle sales (cars + vans) were up by 4.8%, at 54,493. This headline figure was made up of 48,279 cars and 6,214 light commercial vehicles (LCVs). BMI also obtains estimates for HCV and bus sales from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). These show a total of 1,007 HCVs plus 137 buses sold over 11M13. Adding all of the above numbers together, this gives a total of 55,637 vehicles sold in Slovenia over the first 11 months of 2013.

For the full year, we forecast growth of 7.9%, to reach 60,695 units. December 2012 was a particularly difficult month for Slovenian new car sales (which fell by 20% over the one month alone, during a period when there was mass rioting across the country), so we feel that December 2013's performance will be much stronger, thereby helping the final full-year outcome for 2013.

We believe that some small measure of growth in new vehicle sales, of around 4%, could be seen in 2014, although the economic backdrop remains precarious once again. Indeed, BMI's Country Risk team believes the economic outlook for Slovenia remains among the most downbeat in the eurozone, with economic activity shrinking further in the first half of 2013 and no signs that the positive developments in economic activity across the rest of the eurozone have translated into improved external demand for Slovenia.

We believe private consumption - a key indicator of potential demand for new vehicles - will continue to be undermined by high unemployment (10.2% in October 2013) and negative real wage growth, particularly in the public sector, where the government has negotiated hard with unions to reduce the wage bill, and the private sector, which has faced deeper job cuts since the start of the crisis. The government's decision to increase the...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Slovakia Autos Industry SWOT
6
Slovakia Political SWOT
7
Slovakia Economic SWOT
7
Slovakia Business Environment SWOT
8
Global Overview
9
UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform
9
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12
9
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On
9
Regional Overview
14
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings
21
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
25
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
26
Industry Forecast Scenario
28
Sales
28
Table: Slovakia Auto Sales, 2010-2017
28
Production
29
Table: Slovakia Auto Production, 2010-2017
29
Trade
30
Table: Slovakia Auto Trade, 2010-2017
30
Passenger Cars
31
Table: Slovakia Passenger Cars, 2010-2017
31
Industry News
32
Commercial Vehicles
33
Table: Slovakia Commercial Vehicles, 2010-2017
33
Suppliers
34
Company Monitor
35
Company Profiles
37
Volkswagen (VW)
37
PSA Peugeot Citro-n
38
Kia Motors
39
Demographic Outlook
40
Table: Slovakia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
41
Table: Slovakia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
42
Table: Slovakia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
43
Table: Slovakia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
43
BMI Methodology
44
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
44
Sources
45

The Slovenia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Slovenia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Slovenia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Slovenian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

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