Vehicle sales in Slovakia decreased 3.8% in 2013, on the back of weakness in the passenger car and commercial vehicle (CV) segments. In 2014, we forecast an upswing in total sales of 9.4% as the economy recovers somewhat.
BMI maintains a bullish view for private consumption growth in the country in 2014; economic conditions are in the 'sweet spot' for households, as labour market conditions are improving while inflation and interest rates remain very low. This has bolstered real wage growth and consumer confidence, coinciding with a sustained uptrend in retail sales volume. We expect this to continue to drive passenger car sales growth, and we forecast a 9% increase in this segment over the full year.
In 2014, BMI forecasts an increase of 8.2% in light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales and a 15% surge in the heavy truck segment. Despite these relatively bullish forecasts, BMI believes that manufacturing and construction activity in the country will continue to slow down somewhat over the course of 2014 on the back of declining domestic demand and contractions in key export markets. Further, we expect business confidence to remain poor. However, growth in the CV market will come from pent-up demand in the market, following sustained declines in recent years.
BMI believes that passenger car production in Slovakia increased 6.5% in 2013, and we forecast 7.6% growth in 2014. This increasing output in Slovakia, and other Central and Eastern European (CEE) states more generally, can be seen in contrast to decreasing production levels in much of Western Europe as auto manufacturers strive to cut costs amid continuing economic uncertainty in the region. BMI believes that the Western European auto market will remain generally weak (certainly in volumes terms) in the short-to-medium term, and we expect auto investments in the region to dwindle, in contrast to the generally increasing investor sentiment in the CEE region.
The Slovakia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Slovakia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Slovakia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Slovakia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Slovak automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovak automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovakia.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
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Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
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