Business Monitor International


Singapore Real Estate Report

Published 14 February 2014

  • 83 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Singapore Real Estate Report

BMI View: We believe that the Singaporean commercial real estate sector will continue to show solid growth in the long term, boosted by the country's strong fundamentals, including its stable business environment, status as a global financial hub and mature REITs market. However, in the short term we highlight increased investor caution in the sector in light both of the government's attempts to curb growth in the residential market and fears of interest rate rises.

Recent Developments

  • Frasers Centrepoint Ltd, the spun-off property division of Fraser and Neave, listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange. According to the stock exchange, Frasers Centrepoint is 'focused on residential, commercial and hospitality property spanning 19 countries across Asia, Australiasia, Europe and the Middle East'.

  • In January 2014 it was reported that CapitaLand, together with CapitaMalls Asia and CapitalMall Trust, were to sell the Westgate Tower. The buyers are Sun Venture Homes Pte Ltd and Lowe Keng Huat (Singapore) Ltd.

  • Asia Real Estate Income Fund is selling its TripleOne Somerset mixed-use office and retail tower to a consortium led by Perennial Real Estate Holdings. TripleOne is near Orchard Road, a major shopping area.

  • In an overseas development, it was announced in November 2013 that CapitaMalls Asia planned to buy a shopping mall in the major city of Guangzhou, China.

  • Viva Industrial Trust listed in Singapore. It has a portfolio of business parks and other industrial property. It reportedly raised around SGD463mn in gross proceeds, according to Reuters, which will, among other things, be used to expand Viva's portfolio.

BMI Key Forecasts

  • Our forecasts are unchanged, as we continue to see long-term strength in the market. We are awaiting more concrete near-term data before revisiting our own figures, which hold good for the short term.

  • We are forecasting an increase in office rents of 5% in the short term, ranging between SGD73 and SGD132 per...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Office
17
Table: Forecast Office Rents, 2013-2014 (SGD per m2/month)
18
Table: Forecast Office Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%)
18
Retail
18
Table: Forecast Retail Rents, 2013-2014 (SGD per m2/month)
19
Table: Forecast Retail Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%)
20
Industrial
20
Table: Forecast Industrial Rents, 2013-2014 (SGD per m2/month)
21
Table: Industrial Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2017 (%)
21
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
23
Table: Singapore Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2011-2016
23
Table: Singapore Construction And Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
24
Table: Factbox - Key Milestones In Singapore's Infrastructure Master Plan
28
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Economic Analysis
33
Services Still Vulnerable To External Conditions
34
Export Picture Only Slightly Better For 2014
35
Domestic Economic Fundamentals Remain Sound
37
Household Debt A Risk
37
Table: Singapore - Economic Activity
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Table: Asia Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Singapore - Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Rewards
40
Risks
40
Market Overview
42
Office
44
Table: Net Yields, 2012-2013 (%)
44
Table: Historic Rental Costs, 2011-2013 (SGD per m2/month)
45
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease, H212
46
Retail
47
Table: Historic Rental Costs, 2011-2013 (SGD per m2/month)
48
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease, H113
48
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2013 (%)
49
Retail Sales Indicators
50
Table: Singapore's Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017
50
Industrial
50
Table: Historical Rental Costs, 2011-2013 (SGD per m2/month)
51
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2013 (%)
52
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H113
53
Competitive Landscape
54
Office
56
Retail
57
Industrial
58
Other REITs
58
Company Profile
60
CapitaLand
60
City Developments Limited (CDL)
64
Dragages Singapore
66
Keppel Land
68
Singapore Land (SingLand)
71
UOL Group
73
Demographic Forecast
75
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
76
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
77
Table: Singapore's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
78
Table: Singapore's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
78
Methodology
79
Industry Forecast Methodology
79
Sources
80
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
80
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
82
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
83

The Singapore Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.

BMI's Singapore Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Singapore.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for Singapore to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Singaporean real estate market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Singapore through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.

Market Overview

Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.

Market Analysis

Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historical data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:

Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%)

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$)

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Real Estate Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) in the regional real estate market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc