Business Monitor International


Singapore Real Estate Report

Published 23 April 2014

  • 83 pages
 
$1,295.00
Singapore Real Estate Report

BMI View: We are most optimistic for retail real estate in the short term, forecasting a 5% increase in rental rates in 2015, driven by strong demand and a growing number of international brands. However, the office sector could see a fall of 3%, although we are optimistic that demand for prime office real estate will remain strong.

Over 2013, Singaporean property developers generally saw declines on the stock market. We believe the declines were caused primarily in the residential market by governmental curbs, as well as a fear of rising interest rates, bearing in mind fears that the US Federal Reserve's would begin tapering off its asset purchases. However, for commercial real estate, we are more confident that the fundamentals that support the property market continue to support moderate rent growth.

Demand remains strong in retail real estate, and although we do see some potential in the short term for declines in office rental rates, in the longer term the sub-sector will remain supported by strong demand from local and international businesses alike. Likewise, we see long-term strength in the industrial real estate market, with growing demand for high quality space.

Risks to our outlook stem mostly from fears of a faster-than-expected slowdown in China, as Singaporean firms are increasingly linked to that country. However, the real estate sector should as a whole remain buoyed by operators' diverse sectoral and geographic strategies. As well as investing significantly in China, Singaporean real estate firms are investing elsewhere in Asia, in developed markets and also in emerging markets further afield, notably Brazil.

For office real estate, demand is projected to remain strong for grade A property, although in the longer term we note scope for a move outside the traditional central business district to more outlying areas, a trend that will also hold true for the other real estate sub-sectors we cover.

Our optimistic outlook for the retail sector is...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Office
17
Table: Forecast Office Rents, 2014-2015 (USD per m2/month)
18
Table: Short-Term Forecast Office Yields, 2014-2015 (%)
18
Table: Long-Term Forecast Office Net Yields, 2010-2018 (%)
18
Retail
19
Table: Forecast Retail Rents, 2014-2015 (USD per m2/month)
19
Table: Short-Term Forecast Retail Yields, 2014-2015 (%)
20
Table: Long-Term Forecast Retail Net Yield, 2010-2018 (%)
21
Industrial
21
Table: Forecast Industrial Rents, 2014-2015 (USD per m2/month)
22
Table: Short-Term Forecast Industrial Net Yields, 2014-2015 (%)
22
Table: Long-Term Industrial Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2018 (%)
22
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
24
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Singapore 2012-2017)
24
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Singapore 2018-2023)
25
Table: Factbox - Key Milestones In Singapore's Infrastructure Master Plan
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
34
Economic Analysis
34
Global Liquidity Conditions Present Risks To Singapore-
36
-But State Of Economy Remains Sound
37
Table: Singapore - Economic Activity
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Table: Asia Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings, Q314
41
Singapore - Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Rewards
42
Risks
42
Market Overview
44
Office
46
Table: Historic Rental Costs, 2013-2014 (USD per m2/month)
46
Table: Net Yields, 2012-2013 (%)
47
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease, H213
48
Retail
48
Table: Historic Rental Costs, 2012-2014 (US per m2/month)
50
Table: Net Yields, 2012-2014 (%)
50
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease, H213
51
Industrial
51
Table: Historical Rental Costs, 2012-2014 (USD per m2/month)
53
Rents And Yields
53
Table: Net Yields, 2012-2014 (%)
53
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H213
54
Competitive Landscape
55
Office
57
Retail
58
Industrial
59
Other REITs And Real Estate Firms
60
Company Profile
61
CapitaLand
61
City Developments Limited (CDL)
65
Dragages Singapore
68
Keppel Land
70
Singapore Land (SingLand)
73
UOL Group
75
Demographic Forecast
77
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
78
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
79
Table: Singapore's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
80
Table: Singapore's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
80
Methodology
81
Industry Forecast Methodology
81
Sources
82
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
82
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
84
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
85

The Singapore Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.

BMI's Singapore Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Singapore.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for Singapore to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Singaporean real estate market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Singapore through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.

Market Overview

Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.

Market Analysis

Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historical data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:

Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%)

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$)

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Real Estate Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) in the regional real estate market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%