Business Monitor International


Singapore Defence & Security Report

Published 05 February 2014

  • 81 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Singapore Defence & Security Report

BMI View: Singapore's year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 3.7% for 2013, with Q4 growth up 4.4% y-o-y, exceeded expectations. As South East Asia's economic hub, growth is crucial ensuring security and stability in the city-state and ensure s that Singapore is able to maintain a stable defence budget. Defence expenditure will account for 3.8% of GDP in 2014, up from 3.7% in 2013. Nonetheles s, while BMI predicts sustained economic growth and stability , there are economic risk s that, though unikely, could undermine long-term defence spending as well as domestic security and social harmony.

In Q114 some commentators began to speculate about the potential for an economic crash, similar to that in Iceland in 2009, as low interest rates and soaring property prices have been prompting Singaporeans to go into debt to invest in properties they can ill afford. However it is important to clarify that this is a speculative risk. The Singaporean government has already taken decisive steps to cool property demand and prevent excessive leverage. BMI therefore considers it unlikely that an economic crash, with its associated social repercussions, is unlikely. Declining exports also represent a considerable economic risk factor. In nine out of the 12 months in 2013 Singapore's exports declined. With foreign-worker restrictions being enforced, Singapore risks not fully capitalising on an upswing in global demand for various manufactured products expected in 2014. However, while manufacturers may not be able to meet demand, less reliance on foreign workers is likely to have productivity benefits. BMI does not see this risk factor affecting Singapore's security situation or defence policy.

A generally positive economic outlook coincided with an announcement by the US Pentagon in Q114 that Singapore is ready to invest up to US$3.1bn to modernise its fleet of 60 F-16 fighter jets. According to the US Defense Department the planned sale involves new radar, navigation...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Key BMI Forecasts
8
Recent Developments
8
SWOT
9
Singapore Security SWOT
9
Singapore Defence & Security SWOT
12
Political
15
Economic
16
Business Environment
17
Industry Forecast
18
Defence Expenditure
18
Table: Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017
18
Armed Forces
19
Table: Armed Forces, 2004-2010 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
20
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated)
21
Defence Sector Production
21
Table: Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
22
Imports
22
Table: Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
23
Exports
23
Table: Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
24
Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Economic Analysis
25
Services Still Vulnerable To External Conditions
26
Export Picture Only Slightly Better For 2014
27
Domestic Economic Fundamentals Remain Sound
29
Household Debt A Risk
29
Table: Singapore - Economic Activity
30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
Asia Security Risk Ratings
31
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
31
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
32
Singapore Risk Ratings
32
Market Overview
34
Defence Market Overview
34
The Armed Forces
35
Domestic Defence Industries
36
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
39
Imports
39
Exports
41
Security Overview
44
Domestic Threats
44
Regional Security
44
International Security
47
Company Profile
49
Singapore Technologies Aero
49
Singapore Technologies Electronics
51
Singapore Technologies Kinetics
52
Singapore Technologies Marine
54
Regional Overview
55
Political Risk Analysis
55
Global Industry Overview
68
Global Political Outlook
68
Table: Election Timetable, 2014
72
Methodology
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Sector-Specific Methodology
78
Sources
79
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
79
Sector-Specific Methodology
79
Table: Security Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
80
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
81

The Singapore Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Singapore Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Singaporean defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Singapore to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Singaporean defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Singaporean defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Singapore.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Ratings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc