Business Monitor International


Singapore Autos Report

Published 11 June 2014

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Singapore Autos Report

The latest certificate of entitlement (COE) bidding exercise, which closed on May 7 2014, saw significant price declines in most vehicle categories, with only the commercial vehicle (CV) segment registering an increase. As the accompanying table highlights, small car COEs (1,600cc and below) saw the biggest fall in prices from SGD71,335 in the previous bidding round to SGD60,002 in this latest round.

Greater COE Supply Causing Price Declines…

This decline in prices has come on the back of a slew of vehicles being de-registered from May to July 2014. Since 2005, the supply of car COEs has been falling due to declining de-registrations. However, with many of the cars in Singapore's fleet now reaching the end of their 10-year COE cycle, we are going to see a greater COE quota in the next few months as these cars get taken off the country's roads.

For example, the supply for car COEs will increase by roughly 42% during the May to July period, which as the table above shows, has already had a knock-on effect on their premiums.

However, we caution that prices are unlikely to fall much further in the coming months. The fall in car COE prices needs to be put into context and prices are still more than twice their 2010 levels.

…But Prices Will Find Support

While we cannot rule out more price dips in the coming months due to the higher COE supply environment, we retain the view that prices will remain elevated by historical standards for now. Demand for new cars remains strong and many buyers were in fact waiting for this additional COE quota to come into the market before making their purchases.

Furthermore, dealers have responded to the higher COE supply by cutting their car prices and we see consumers rushing to lock in these lower prices in the next few weeks and months. Two other factors supporting prices will be car owners who recently de-registered their vehicles, jumping into the market for a new car, as well as owners who need to scrap their cars in 2015, securing a...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT Analysis
9
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Comparison Of COE Prices (SGD)
14
Table: Sales Of Top Ranked Brands In 2013
18
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018)
21
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018)
21
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018)
22
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018)
22
Suppliers
27
Macroeconomic Forecast
34
Economic Analysis
34
Global Liquidity Conditions Present Risks To Singapore-
36
-But State Of Economy Remains Sound
37
Table: Singapore - Economic Activity
40
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
44
Company Profile
45
Company Monitor
45
BMW
49
Toyota
50
Regional Overview
51
Asia Regional Overview
51
Table: Vehicle Sales March 2014 (Cbus)
51
Global Industry Overview
56
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
56
European Growth Gathers Momentum
56
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
58
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
59
Demographic Forecast
62
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
63
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
64
Table: Singapore's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
65
Table: Singapore's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
65
Methodology
66
Industry Forecasts
66
Sector-Specific Methodology
67
Sources
67
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
68
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
69

The Singapore Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Singapore Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Singapore.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Singapore to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Singaporean automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Singaporean automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Singapore.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc