Business Monitor International


Singapore Autos Report

Published 01 December 2014

  • 63 pages
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$1,295.00
Singapore Autos Report

As we have highlighted previously, we believe an expected large number of car owners looking to replace their cars nearing the 10-year validity period will result in a surge in sales and certificate of entitlement (COE) prices will remain elevated. This has largely played out and domestic auto sales have been on a strong uptrend since June 2014, with domestic auto sales growing by 22.0% year-on-year from January to October, while COE prices have also been on an uptrend over the past few months.

We expect that policy changes announced by Singapore's Land Transport Authority (LTA) which will be implemented over the coming months to continue supporting certificate of entitlement (COE) prices across all vehicle categories. Given that the government has cut the vehicle growth rate from 0.5% to 0.25% (with effect from February 2015), we foresee fewer COEs being issued from February 2015 onwards pushing COE prices. At the same time, having more COE quota allocated to Category A (<=1,600cc) and less to Category B (>1,600cc) should see a divergence in COE prices of these two categories over the coming months.

On the commercial vehicle (CV) front, while we previously highlighted that COE prices for Category C vehicles will remain stable, underpinned by the longer lifespan of 20 years and the Early Turnover Scheme, we now expect Category C vehicles to also face rising COE prices, given an expected drop in COEs being issued for CVs.

Meanwhile, the government is also exploring the possibility of having autonomous vehicles on Singapore's roads, and set up various committees to develop this segment. However, given that issues such as vehicle reliability, infrastructure, liability, and regulations have not yet been resolved, we do not expect autonomous vehicles to have a meaningful impact on Singapore commuters within the next five to 10 years.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT Analysis
9
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Comparison Of Monthly COE Prices, 2nd Round Bidding (SGD)
14
Table: New Registration Of Cars By Make (7M14)
17
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018)
18
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018)
19
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018)
19
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018)
20
Suppliers
23
Macroeconomic Forecast
26
Macroeconomic Analysis
26
Holding Out Hope In Construction
26
Trade Outlook Not So Bright
27
MAS Stands Pat On Cue
27
Table: Economic Activity (Singapore 2009-2018)
29
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
33
Company Profile
34
Company Monitor
34
BMW
37
Toyota
38
Regional Overview
39
Table: Vehicle Sales June 2014 (CBUS)
39
Global Industry Overview
45
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
45
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
45
Trucks Give North America A Lift
46
India Brings Relief To BRICs
48
Demographic Forecast
50
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
51
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
52
Table: Singapore's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
53
Table: Singapore's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
53
Methodology
54
Industry Forecasts
54
Sector-Specific Methodology
55
Sources
55
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
56
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
57

The Singapore Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Singapore Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Singapore.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Singapore to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Singaporean automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Singaporean automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Singapore.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc