Business Monitor International


Singapore Autos Report

Published 15 September 2014

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$1,295.00
Singapore Autos Report

Certificate of entitlement (COE) prices for all vehicle categories rose in the second round of bidding in August 2014 on the back of strong demand, despite an increase in COE quotas over the past three months. We expect this dynamic to continue playing out over the next few years as car owners gradually replace their cars that are nearing their 10 year lifespan, pushing up demand. In view of rising COE quotas, we are revising our vehicle sales growth forecast for 2014 from a contraction of 3.0% to 14.4% growth.

Expect Bumper Crop O f COE Quotas

COE quotas are determined by the number of cars deregistered in the preceding three-month period, and given that the number of cars deregistered monthly has hit a three-year high of 2,724 units in July, we foresee COE quotas continuing on their upward trend in Q414. We believe COE quotas will continue rising over the next few years. This is largely driven by an expected increase in the number of cars being deregistered from 2014 to 2018, as the bumper crop of cars bought between 2004 and 2008 are nearing the end of their 10-year lifespan.

Although car buyers are looking to replace their old cars, we also notice that car sales from January to August 2014 have drastically fallen short of the sales volume that was seen during the same period in 2004. We attribute this to car owners holding off deregistration of their vehicles due to the high cost of purchasing a new car, and opting to renew their COEs for another five years instead. This will result in demand being spread over a number of years.

A Different Picture For CVs

We see a completely different trend for commercial vehicles (CVs), with monthly COE quotas declining over the past months, from 770 between May and July to 515 between August and October. Although CVs also had a similar boom between 2004 and 2008, their longer lifespan of 20 years means that unlike passenger car owners, CV owners will not be hard pressed to replace their vehicles anytime soon.

Moreover, we...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT Analysis
9
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Comparison Of COE Prices (SGD)
14
Table: Sales Of Top Ranked Brands In 2013
18
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018)
21
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018)
21
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018)
22
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018)
22
Suppliers
27
Macroeconomic Forecast
34
Economic Analysis
34
Global Liquidity Conditions Present Risks To Singapore-
36
-But State Of Economy Remains Sound
37
Table: Singapore - Economic Activity
40
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
44
Company Profile
45
Company Monitor
45
BMW
49
Toyota
50
Regional Overview
51
Asia Regional Overview
51
Table: Vehicle Sales March 2014 (Cbus)
51
Global Industry Overview
56
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
56
European Growth Gathers Momentum
56
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
58
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
59
Demographic Forecast
62
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
63
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
64
Table: Singapore's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
65
Table: Singapore's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
65
Methodology
66
Industry Forecasts
66
Sector-Specific Methodology
67
Sources
67
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
68
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
69

The Singapore Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Singapore Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Singapore.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Singapore to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Singaporean automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Singaporean automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Singapore.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc