Business Monitor International


Serbia Telecommunications Report

Published 20 November 2014

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Serbia Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Serbian market is not as developed as many of its Eastern European peers despite its high level of saturation. Serbia's mobile penetration peaked in 2008 at 142.9% and has been in decline since. BMI does not believe that the market has much scope in terms of new customers, instead value-added services, such as access to high speed mobile data can raise the average revenue per user for mobile operators. This is already evident by an increasing ARPU in 2014. BMI has identified mobile data as a potential area for growth, but the lack of legal framework has meant that Serbia is still taking its first steps in developing 4G. The introduction of fixed number porting option in 2014 will increase competition in the fixed-line segment. 

Key Data:

  • The  mobile  market returned to growth in 2013, following discounting inactive users in 2012. BMI estimates Serbia added 37,370 new customers in 2013 - an increase of 1.4% y-o-y.

  • The mobile broadband market, however, grew rapidly in 2013, up by 15.1% y-o-y to reach 4.218mn 3G subscriptions.  

  • Vip Mobile continued to make the most gains in terms of market share by subscriptions, adding 158,000 net users in 2013.

  • Pay-TV users grew by 7.6% to reach 1.552mn at end-2013, while penetration rate increased to 21.62% up from 19.92% in 2013.

Key Trends And Developments

The Serbian government ratified an amendment to the Serbian telecoms law in July 2014, which places great emphasis on network neutrality. BMI believes that this is greatly welcome by Telenor Serbia that has been calling for the amendments to be made to the telecoms law. The new law amendment will also regulate network neutrality, which Telenor has been calling for. BMI believes this to be the first step for possible auction for 900/1800/2100 MHz bands which in turn would allow for 4G networks to be developed.

In May 2013, it was announced that, barring further delays, fixed telephony users in Serbia will be able to change operators and keep...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Serbia Mobile SWOT
6
Serbia Wireline SWOT
6
Serbia Political SWOT
7
Serbia Economic SWOT
8
Serbia Business Environment SWOT
8
Business Environment Analysis
9
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113
12
Industry Forecast Scenario
16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
16
Mobile ARPU
18
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile ARPU - Historical Data & Forecasts
18
Fixed Line
20
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
20
Internet
21
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
21
Market Overview
23
Mobile
23
Regional Perspective
23
Table: Serbia Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011
23
Key Developments
24
Mobile Growth
25
Market Share And Net Additions
26
Table: Serbia Mobile Subscribers Q211-Q212 ('000)
27
Subscription Mix
28
Usage (MOU/ARPU)
29
Networks
30
Mobile Content/Value Added Services
32
Value-Added Services Timeline
34
Table: Selected VAS Services
34
Mobile Operator Data
35
Serbia Mobile Market Overview
35
Table: MTS
35
Table: Telenor Serbia
36
Table: Vip
37
Regional Outlook
37
VoIP
45
Internet
46
IPTV
50
Table: Wireline Developments
51
Industry Trends & Developments
52
Regulatory Environment
54
Serbia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
54
Legislation And Market Liberalisation
55
Regulation
57
Competitive Landscape
61
Table: Key Players - Serbia Telecoms Sector
61
Table: Selected Telecoms Operators Financial Indicators
61
Company Profiles
62
Telekom Srbija
62
Telenor Serbia
67
Company Monitor
71
Vendor Profile
71
Table: Revenue By Business Segment (HRK '000)
71
Table: Revenue By Geography (HRKmn)
72
Key Contracts, 2011-2012
75
Country Snapshot: Serbia Demographic Data
76
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
77
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
78
Table: Serbia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
79
Table: Serbia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
79
Glossary Of Terms
80
Table: Glossary Of Terms
80
BMI Methodology
83
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
83
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
85
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
85
Table: Ratings Indicators
86
Weighting
87
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
87
Sources
87

The Serbia Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Serbia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Serbia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Serbia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Serbia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Serbia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc