BMI View: Serbian market is not as developed as many of its Eastern European peers despite its high level of saturation. Serbia's mobile penetration peaked in 2008 at 142.9% and has been in decline since. BMI does not believe that the market has much scope in terms of new customers, instead value-added services, such as access to high speed mobile data can raise the average revenue per user for mobile operators. This is already evident by an increasing ARPU in 2014. BMI has identified mobile data as a potential area for growth, but the lack of legal framework has meant that Serbia is still taking its first steps in developing 4G. The introduction of fixed number porting option in 2014 will increase competition in the fixed-line segment.
The mobile market returned to growth in 2013, following discounting inactive users in 2012. BMI estimates Serbia added 37,370 new customers in 2013 - an increase of 1.4% y-o-y.
The mobile broadband market, however, grew rapidly in 2013, up by 15.1% y-o-y to reach 4.218mn 3G subscriptions.
Vip Mobile continued to make the most gains in terms of market share by subscriptions, adding 158,000 net users in 2013.
Pay-TV users grew by 7.6% to reach 1.552mn at end-2013, while penetration rate increased to 21.62% up from 19.92% in 2013.
Key Trends And Developments
The Serbian government ratified an amendment to the Serbian telecoms law in July 2014, which places great emphasis on network neutrality. BMI believes that this is greatly welcome by Telenor Serbia that has been calling for the amendments to be made to the telecoms law. The new law amendment will also regulate network neutrality, which Telenor has been calling for. BMI believes this to be the first step for possible auction for 900/1800/2100 MHz bands which in turn would allow for 4G networks to be developed.
In May 2013, it was announced that, barring further delays, fixed telephony users in Serbia will be able to change operators and keep...
The Serbia Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Serbia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Serbia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Serbia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Serbia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Serbia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.