Business Monitor International


Serbia Retail Report

Published 09 January 2014

  • 67 pages
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$1,295.00
Serbia Retail Report

BMI View: Serbian per capita consumer spending is forecast to rise by a modest 13.4% between 2013 and 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 39%. The country comes second to last out of 10 in BMI 's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, Highlighting its weak performance relative to its peers. Although Serbia is unlikely to join the EU before 2018, the accession process itself will provide the government with a policy anchor and development funds. We also expect investors to be enticed by the prospect of eventual access to the single market.

The outlook for Serbia's retail sector is unimpressive, however the longer term potential of the sector supported by EU accession talks which are approaching their final stages. Investment in the retail sector is already up on the assumption that an agreement will be reached, but we expect both household spending and investment across the sector to be bolstered by the conclusion of a deal.

  • Household spending will fall by a marginal 0.33% from 2013 to 2014; however we anticipate a recovery in 2015 to allow spending to reach US$34bn.

  • Food and non-alcoholic drinks will remain the largest are of spending, with a forecast of US$9.1bn in 2014, although this will measure as a slight 1.3% decline over 2013.

  • Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales rising 28.4% between 2013 and 2017 to US$1.58bn.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Headline Retail Forecast
13
Table: Total Household Spending, 2011-2018
14
Table: Retail Sector Spending (%), 2011-2018
15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending, 2011-2018
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending as a % of GDP, 2011-2018
18
Retail Sector Forecast
19
Food & Drink
20
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending, 2011-2018
21
Clothing & Footwear
21
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending, 2011-2018
22
Household Goods
22
Table: Household Goods Spending, 2011-2018
23
Personal Care And Effects
24
Table: Personal Care Spending, 2011-2018
25
Household Numbers and Income Forecast
26
Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
27
Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
29
Demographic Forecast
30
Table: Total Population, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Babies, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Young Children, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Children, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Young People, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: Older Teenagers, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: 21yrs +, 2011-2018
33
Table: Young Adults, 2011-2018
34
Table: Population: Middle Aged, 2011-2018
34
Table: Population: Urban, 2011-2018
34
Macroeconomic Forecast
35
Economic Analysis
35
Table: Serbia - Economic Activity
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Central And Eastern Europe Risk
Central And Eastern Europe Risk
Table: Europe Risk Reward Ratings
40
Serbia Risk Reward Ratings
41
Rewards
41
Risks
41
Market Overview
42
Competitive Landscape
47
Glossary
50
Demographic Forecast
57
Demographic Outlook
57
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
58
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
59
Table: Serbia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
60
Table: Serbia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
60
Methodology
61
Industry Forecast Methodology
61
Sources
64
Risk
Risk
Table: Retail Risk
Table: Retail Risk
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
67

The Serbia Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Serbia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Serbia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Ratings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Ratings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc