BMI View: The Serbian economy struggles to sustain a healthy growth rate as it is set to contract by 2.5% in 2015 on the back of falling exports and decreasing household spending. The outlook for the retail sector is equally negative for the first half of BMI's forecast period: strict cuts on government's spending in 2015 will result in falling total household spending in 2015-2016 posing threats for the growth of retailers' sales. Population will decline slightly, and unemployment will remain high; however, this will not prevent the consistent rise of household income and steady growth of the middle class.
At the crossroad of regional geopolitical interests, Serbia struggles to choose decisively the direction of its economic integration. As one of the five official candidates to join the EU, the country fails to demonstrate rapid economic development and willingness to adapt to Western European business culture and thinking. The Kosovo affair remains an obstacle, and with support from the East, it lacks incentives to act decisively in talks with Brussels. The country remains a close ally for the isolated Russia and is willing to show its loyalty to the sanctions-hit country: Maja Gojkovic, the President of the National Assembly, declared in late December 2014 that Serbia will never join the EU sanctions against Russia, as she does not believe that they can solve any problems. It is likely that such a stance will negatively affect Serbia's future economic growth as it remains among the very few countries in Europe without a clear direction of economic integration and at risk of not becoming a member of any economic alliances in near future.
Serbia's economic condition is still poor. The country fails to bridge the development gap between itself and the EU-integrated Balkan countries - Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia. Responding to the deteriorating economic conditions, the government has approved decisive budget cuts for 2015 totalling up to EUR750mn....
The Serbia Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Serbia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Serbia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.