Business Monitor International


Serbia Retail Report

Published 24 April 2014

  • 67 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Serbia Retail Report

BMI View: The retail market in Serbia continues to struggle in the short term, although medium term growth reveals opportunity for later investment. The country comes second to last out of 11 countries in BMI ' s Central and Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, highlighting its weak performance relative to its peers. Although Serbia is not a member of the EU, its ongoing efforts to join and close trade ties with member nations help bring long-term growth prospects to the nation. BMI forecasts a decline in retail spending of 1.88% in 2014, with strong growth not beginning until 2017. The modest long-term growth prospects create opportunity for investment, however, currency fluctuations and political uncertainty and ongoing unemployment create risk

The short term growth prospects for Serbia remain very weak with BMI forecasting a decline in total retail spending of 1.88% in 2014 and 0.76% in 2015. Modest growth is forecasted to pick up in 2016 where BMI forecasts 1.84% growth and stronger growth rates of 6.6% and 7.0% are forecasted for 2017 and 2018. Despite this medium term growth, BMI forecasts that the total increase in GDP will be 24.3% and GDP will increase from USD43bn in 2014 to USD54bn in 2018, while retail spending will increase much less with BMI forecasting a total increase in retail spending of 15%.

The total spend in retail is forecasted to increase from USD31bn in 2014 to USD36bn in 2018, representing an average annual rate of increase of just 2.57%. The total spend per household is forecasted to increase from USD9,407 to USD10,493 representing a modest increase of just 11.53% throughout the projection period.

Although the retail market continues to struggle, there are some sectors where growth proves stronger. BMI forecasts that the strongest growth for the projection period will occur in the Recreation and Culture and Health sub-sectors which have forecasted average annual growth rates of 4.0% and 3.8%, respectively....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Headline Retail Forecast
13
Table: Total Household Spending, 2011-2018
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending (%), 2011-2018
16
Table: Retail Spending as a % of GDP, 2011-2018
17
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending, 2011-2018
18
Table: Retail Sector Spending As A % Of GDP, 2011-2018
20
Retail Sector Forecast
21
Food & Drink
22
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending, 2011-2018
24
Clothing & Footwear
24
Table: Clothing And Footwear Spending, 2011-2018
25
Household Goods
25
Table: Household Goods Spending, 2011-2018
26
Personal Care And Effects
27
Table: Personal Care Spending, 2011-2018
28
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
29
Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
30
Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
33
Demographic Forecast
34
Table: Total Population, 2011-2018
35
Table: Population: Babies, 2011-2018
35
Table: Population: Young Children, 2011-2018
36
Table: Population: Children, 2011-2018
36
Table: Population: Young Teens And Older Children, 2011-2018
36
Table: Population: Young People, 2011-2018
37
Table: Population: Older Teenagers, 2011-2018
37
Table: Population: 21yrs+, 2011-2018
37
Table: Young Adults, 2011-2018
38
Table: Population: Middle Aged, 2011-2018
38
Table: Population: Urban, 2011-2018
38
Macroeconomic Forecast
39
Economic Outlook
39
Table: Serbia - Economic Activity
44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
45
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Table: Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Serbia Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Rewards
46
Risks
46
Market Overview
47
Department Stores
49
MGR
49
Consumer Electronics
50
Automotives
51
Competitive Landscape
52
Glossary
55
Methodology
62
Industry Forecast Methodology
62
Sources
65
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
65
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
68

The Serbia Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Serbia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Serbia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc